The complicated dance of Taiwan diplomacy is becoming increasingly fraught, with a mooted August visit to the beleaguered territory by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi creating any number of potholes to trip up unwary politicians and unsettle the delicate balance of US-China relations.
US President Joe Biden is expected to discuss these Taiwan tensions with China’s President Xi Jinping in a phone call within 24 hours and he has already publicly noted that the US military thinks the trip is “not a good idea”.
Pelosi is not commenting on the trip at all, which was originally planned for earlier in the year and delayed or cancelled when she caught COVID. Reported by the Financial Times last week, this visit has been warmly endorsed by her ideological enemies, no doubt keen to back her into a diplomatic corner. Mike Pompeo, secretary of state under former US president Donald Trump, tweeted: “Nancy, I’ll go with you. I’m banned in China, but not freedom-loving Taiwan. See you there!” US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on Tuesday ramped up the pressure, saying: “If she doesn’t go now, she’s handing China a sort of a victory of sorts.”
China, which sees self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province inevitably destined to return to the mainland, is unsurprisingly bellicose about the matter, warning this week that a visit by the 82-year-old Democrat, who is second in line for the US presidency, would have “consequences”. “If the US side is bent on going its own way, China will take strong measures to resolutely respond and counteract,” Chinese foreign affairs ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said on Monday.
The spat is the latest expression of increasing tension in relations between the rising superpower and the US, long conducted on the principle of so-called “strategic ambiguity”.
This policy deliberately fudges positions, allowing the US to accommodate Beijing’s assertion that Taiwan is a breakaway province while at the same time giving the US cover to treat Taiwan as an independent nation and sell it weapons systems for self-defence, primarily to use against China.
Meanwhile, Taiwan is conducting annual week-long military exercises, including civil defence drills with wailing air raid sirens and streets cleared of cars and people. President Tsai Ing-wen, a champion of the territory’s sovereignty who was reelected in a landslide in 2020, tweeted on Tuesday that she witnessed Taiwan’s navy and air force in action from the deck of a destroyer: “Their execution of a range of live-fire drills gives me confidence in our military’s ability & determination to respond to any contingency.” “Any contingency” covers a lot of ground, including military incursions.
Still, Taiwan is understandably on edge. Beijing has already reclaimed Hong Kong, many years ahead of schedule, and locked up democracy activists and protesters while crushing civil society and freedom of the press. Many fear Xi will take action on Taiwan some time after the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress in November, when it’s expected he will secure an unprecedented third term.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is playing into the mix. There are obvious parallels between Russia attempting to take over a nation it regards as an integral part of the motherland and China’s entrenched position on Taiwan. CIA director Bill Burns said last week at the Aspen Security Forum that he “wouldn’t underestimate President Xi’s determination to assert the People’s Republic of China’s control over Taiwan”, adding the risk has become higher as the decade progresses. However, he noted that China would draw a lesson from Russia’s experience in Ukraine: “You don’t achieve quick decisive victories with underwhelming force.”
The English-language Taipei Times newspaper warned in an editorial published on Wednesday that Biden’s fading popularity could tempt China into forcing the issue, striking while the US is at a weak point.
“Taiwan cannot afford to let its guard down,” the paper says. “With the danger of miscalculation by Xi a real possibility, Taiwan’s military and national security apparatus must remain vigilant.”
“China, which sees self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province inevitably destined to return to the mainland…”
Yes, but for an accurate picture it should also be noted Taiwan’s official position, since the civil war that divided China leaving the Chinese nationalist government in control of Taiwan, is that the mainland is several breakaway provinces destined to return to it. References in the article to Taiwan’s independence only confuse the issues further. Taiwan has not declared independence. The issue remains ambiguous.
Taiwan also invented the 9 dash line, never heard of anyone complaining to Taiwan about that.
Maybe that’s because Taiwan hasn’t militarised the area.
Only because it’s incapable.
You might want to check on that before making statements. Taiwan, Philippines and Vietnam have also done just that. China is just better at it.
Taiwan is and has been Chinese since 1683 under the Qing dynasty, in fact one hundred years before the establishment of the British Colony of New South Wales.
It was ceded to Japan in the Treaty of Shimonseki, yet another unequal treaty, at the end of the 19th century just like those forced on China by European nations.
Following the defeat of Japan and on the establishment of the PRC it should have been returned to China.
But the USA, following the “loss of China” with the establishment of the PRC, decided to let the Guómíndǎng under Jiǎng Jièshí occupy Taiwan, without consulting the then inhabitants both the Han Chinese and also the indigenous groups that were on Taiwan.
The Guómíndǎng had pillaged both the Treasury and the art and historical collections of China before they occupied Taiwan. Somewhere around 115 tonnes of gold were stolen along with many of the finest and oldest of China’s pieces of art.
The Guómíndǎng behaved in such an arrogant and high handed manner in their treatment of the Taiwanese, both Han and indigenous, that there was an uprising in which some 28,000 Taiwanese were killed in the Massacres of 28 February 1947
Following that there was The White Terror then the suppression of political dissidents with one of longest periods of martial law which lasted for 38 years and 57 days from 19 May 1949 to 15 July 1987, during which many opponents of the Guómíndǎng were “detained” killed or “disappeared”
* That “loss of China” about which the USA bruited, is and was of course nonsense as China was never that of the USA to lose.
Originally 11 dashes …This area has always been called the South China Sea, 南方海; Nánfāng Hǎi as well in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, it was long called the “South China Sea” (Dagat Timog Tsina in Tagalog, Laut China Selatan in Malay), Japan calls the sea Minami Shina Kai “South China Sea”.
Further more in 1947, the then government ROC, that of the Guómíndǎng, set out an 11 dash line and made it officially public.
The following year both the international community and the littoral states bordering on the South China Sea did not raise any objection, nor did any national government raise any diplomatic issues with China.
They all tacitly accepted the existence of the line. In fact, a number of countries and regions in Europe and America published maps to identify areas of the South China Sea inside the dashed line as territorially belonging to China.
Following the establishment of the PRC Zhōnghuá Rénmín Gònghéguó ,the dashes were dropped from 11 to 9 in 1953 after the Chinese government removed the two in Beibu Bay, Běibù Wān, commonly known as the Gulf of Tonkin.
A timeline…
The 11 dash line was claimed by the Republic of China, ROC The Southern China Sea Islands Location Map, marking the national boundaries in the sea with 11 lines, showing the U shaped claim on the entire South China Sea, and showing the Spratly and Paracels in Chinese territory, in 1947.
In fact the US reminded the Philippines at its independence in 1946 that the Spratlys was not Philippine territory, both to not anger, Jiǎng Jièshí Chiang Kai-shek in China and because the Spratlys were not part of the Philippines per the 1898 treaty Spain signed with US.
1952 – Japan renounced any claims of sovereignty over the Spratly and Paracel archipelagos in accordance with Article 2 Clause (f) of the San Francisco Peace Treaty, but no beneficiary was designated.
1958 – China published “Declaration of the Government of the People’s Republic of China on China’s Territorial Sea published on 4 September 1958” to lawfully describe true meaning of “nine-dotted line on South China Sea”, this reduced it from the eleven-dotted line of the ROC, this was to remove that that encompassed the Gulf of Tonkin.
1958 – Communist Vietnamese Premier Phạm Văn Đồng sent Premier Zhōu Ēnlái a formal diplomatic communique respecting China’s decision on South China Sea.
The International Hydrographic Organization refers to the sea as “South China Sea (Nan Hai)”
grâce à wikipedia et al.
Thanks for that, quite a few points I wasn’t aware of.
Who cares what hzppened 50 or 70 years ago? All that matters is what the people of Taiwan want.
The only mention of independence I can see is:
giving the US cover to treat Taiwan as an independent nation
Which isn’t really References in the article to Taiwan’s independence
‘Taiwan’ is a nickname. The official name is ‘The Republic of China’, I believe. How many China’s are there?
Yes indeed. Or to put it another way, Taiwan is the name (or one of several names) of an island off the coast of the continent of Asia, just as Britain is the usual name of the main island of an archipelago of islands off the coast of Europe; neither is the name of a country. There is endless confusion caused by the failure to distinguish between political and physical geography when talking about places.
Prior to the Chinese Civil War, the current area you know as Mainland China and Taiwan were known as the Republic of China. After the Kuomintang Dictatorship lost, they fled to Taiwan with as much wealth as they could lay their hands on and took control of the Province. The ROC on the Mainland became the People’s Republic of China. The entire Taiwan issue is an internal Chinese issue and nothing to do with the West.
The Guómíndǎng pillaged both the Treasury and the art and historical collections of China before they occupied Taiwan. Somewhere around 115 tonnes of gold were stolen along with many of the finest and oldest of China’s pieces of art.
The Author of this drivel needs to get her facts right. Beijing did not “reclaim” Hong Kong, it has always belonged to China and was finally formally returned to them in 1997. “One Country, Two Systems” remains firmly in place in HK as it does in Macao (quite successfully I might add). The US is 100% the cause of the tensions over Taiwan. They acknowledge that Taiwan is part of China yet continue to stoke the fires (just as they did with Russia and Ukraine). This ratbag, racist, crusader “Freedumb” country will be the death of not only Taiwan but us all. When will the West learn to mind their own business?
Crikey is falling inline with the MSM message, I wonder who is pressuring them?
Mammon?
I agree and have said so several times. I can read this stuff in Murdochs rags if I want to stoop that low! Keep this up and no renewal of subscription Crikey!
She didn’t even have an informed opinion, it’s wrong on so many points.
Gee. That’s very ‘precious’ of you. Can’t handle a dissenting view? That means you are probably from the Green Left. Any view you don’t like is immediately dismissed on the grounds that ‘you don’t agree’, not on any consequential rebuttable
Exactly. In fact China has said the “one country two systems” arrangement could be made indefinite. Sure, a Security Law has been introduced hastened by pro-independence protests/riots. All countries have such a law. And back in the 80s when I was there I don’t think any foreign observer thought that the mainland would ever tolerate a HK leader antagonistic to China.
Foreign backed Seditionists and Rioters are the cause of the issues in HK. Now that Foreign funding and influence is being identified and prosecuted (just as Australia is doing BTW), there is no reason that “One Country, Two Systems” will not continue.
OmG. You have got to be on the CCPs payroll. Don’t believe you are an ‘aussie’ at all.
Well that went really well in HK didn’t it. I think the evidence is that China cannot be trusted to keep to the spirit of 2 systems. What rock have u just emerged from?
The USA is itching for a fight. At every turn they are daring China to move on Taiwan.
Or is it that they don’t want to be pushed around a bully or respond to threats and coercion?
Invading across 80km of ocean against opposition has never been done, even in the movies. As for US weakness, each of their fleets can destroy every city on a continent. Take about half an hour. Destroy the fleet, their subs will do the job even quicker. So tremble at their weakness.
On the other hand, I own nothing made in the US of A. But I own lots made in China – another kind of power. And I can’t help liking Chinese people, yet another. They don’t constantly bombard me with propaganda, a point in their favour also.
Refuse to fear, and be free.
No winners when nuclear powers face off.
The US have modelled this numerous times and China wins every time.
Mutually assured destruction isn’t winning.
Conventional weapons only.
You are clearly using the lines the Ccp have fed you ‘say it as though it were true ‘
As does Iran – 12 times – in the Pentagon’s $250M Millennium Challenge 2002 (MC02) by using cheap, freely available tech such as motorbikes & small launches against the might if the US Navy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
Even the usually gung-ho US tops ra ra ra Popuar Mechanics had to admit it.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a30392654/millennium-challenge-qassem-soleimani/
Rather like the USUKA nuclear subs which, if they ever eventuate mid century will belittle more than crewed depth charges waiting, breathlessly (if lucky) on the sea bed, to be droned.
As does Iran – 12 times – in the Pentagon’s $250M Millennium Challenge 2002 (MC02) by using cheap, freely available tech such as motorbikes & small launches against the might if the US Navy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
Even the usually gung-ho US tops ra ra ra Popuar Mechanics had to admit it.
Rather like the USUKA nuclear subs which, if they ever eventuate mid century will belittle more than crewed depth charges waiting, breathlessly (if lucky) on the sea bed, to be droned.
The Popular Mechanics link –
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a30392654/millennium-challenge-qassem-soleimani/
Here is a precise of such
Just to set the scene the extract concerns what is in reality a very elaborate war game called Millennium Challenge 2002, an attack mounted on a country close to the Persian Gulf. The game designers, JFCOM commanders, confidently expected would fully vindicate the arcane theology of EBO, RDO, ONA and PMESII.
I will not bother you with translating all of these as it turns out, rather useless acronyms. They can be found on the web pages , So Rummy who is the instigator and chief architect of the new paradigm for the US Armed Forces is being escorted around the building that the game i!s to be run from.
…the commanding general, William Kernan, took care to keep his distinguished guest away from a tall, bald-headed man in civilian clothes, for he was the enemy. A retired marine general and Vietnam combat veteran, Paul Van Riper had been had been called back to command the Red Team in the Millennium war game.
In such exercises, the enemy is always Red; the U.S. side is always Blue. But Van Riper was a twofold enemy. Not only was he playing the role of an opponent, he made no secret of his derisive opinion of the concepts underpinning JFCOM’s approach to war….
…Van Riper was well aware of the U.S. Navy’s “Aegis” anti-missile capabilities, and how many missiles it would take to overwhelm them. “Usually Red hoards its missiles, letting them out in dribs and drƒabs”, he told me in retracing the battle. “That’s foolish, I did a salvo launch, used up pretty much all my inventory at once.”
The defenses were overwhelmed. Sixteen American ships sank to the bottom of the Gulf, along with twenty thousand servicemen. Only a few days in, the war was over, and the “transformed” military had been beaten hands down.
For Gen. William Kerner, the JFCOM commander, there could be only one solution to this crisis. Van Riper was informed that the sunken ships had magically re-floated themselves, the dead had come back to life, and the war was on again.
But this time there would be no surprises. He was not allowed to shoot down Blue Team V-22 troop transports, though these are highly vulnerable planes. The Red Team was ordered to switch on their radars so that they could be more easily destroyed. The umpires announced that his missile strikes had been intercepted…
The US is at a weak point because it can’t invade another country right now, imaging all the sanctions the collective west would put on them.
The West would find a way to weasel out of putting sanctions on the US lest they offend their master.
Easily done when they are the worlds biggest hypocrites.
That would only be true were it a morally, ethically & logically consistent polity. The historical evidence to the contrary is abundant.