Six months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, European leaders are looking at the battle lines and are starting to see something that looks a lot like northern France in early 1915: a bloody stalemate, with neither country strong enough to break through and yet neither so weakened that they risk collapse.
Sure, there are regular inch-by-inch shuffles forward and back by both sides — the Russians edge forward in Luhansk in the east and are nudged back in Kherson in the south.
It’s not where anyone expected to be six months — or even three months — ago. And there’s a nervousness about how quickly the continent might move from an “it’s not what we expected” frustration through to war fatigue and eventually disengagement.
For the Ukrainians celebrating their independence day this week, exactly six months after the invasion began in its current iteration, there’s a we’re-still-standing defiance, with the day marked with the prideful display of captured Russian tanks in the main streets of Kyiv.
The moral core of their cause has been strengthened by the appalling evidence of Russian war crimes in Bucha, Hostomel and Mariupol.
In the Atlantic part of NATO — the US, UK and Canada — distance empowers continued strong support. (Same in Australia, too.) This week, the US announced a further A$4.3 billion military aid package including artillery, drones and rockets. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson has been spending his last days as PM wistfully reminding the British people what they’re missing out on as he wanders the streets of Kyiv with President Zelenskyy.
Nearness also urges solidarity. With one or two exceptions, the central European states (formerly the Soviet-bloc of what Cold War language designated as eastern Europe) remain in lockstep with Ukraine.
Poland, in particular, is eager to carve out a role as the new leader of a right-wing but anti-Russia Europe as Ukraine offers the possibility of dragging the continent’s centre of gravity to the east. Their president, Andrzej Duda, was in Kyiv again this week promising a strategic deal with deep economic engagement between the two countries
Notably, these countries are also the most disrupted: host to the most refugees, historically most dependent on Russian gas, battered by the highest inflation rates (including over 20% in the Baltic states). October elections in Bulgaria will give the first electoral test of these competing political and economic tensions.
Right now, though, Russia will be looking elsewhere for a break in democratic solidarity, at the old western Europe that still hankers for what those poetic Germans call “wandel durch handel” or, in more prosaic English, “change through trade”.
It’s a German-centred policy that encouraged the engagement of Russia with democratic Europe as the energy supplier of choice. Now, Russia is hoping to flip the flow, with its trade driving the change it wants. The Kremlin will be thinking it can wait out Europe’s initial enthusiasm for Ukraine, particularly as the cold of a gas-deprived winter hits.
It would also know that, after the early welcome, there is bubbling hostility to the now almost 7 million Ukrainian refugees registered in the European Union (according to the UNHCR). That’s about one in six of Ukraine’s pre-war population.
Australians are no strangers to the political dangers of seemingly uncontrolled refugee flows. Nor is Europe: just six years ago, the Syrian refugee crisis of about 1 million people nearly broke the EU’s principle of free movement and was one of the key toxic trends that fed into the Brexit referendum.
Western Europe is facing its own electoral test of these tensions. Opinion polls in Italy indicate that the right remains on course to win the Autumn elections, with Fratelli d’Italia likely to deliver the first fascist prime minister of Italy since 1943. Although the party leader, Giorgia Meloni, is mouthing the usual platitudes about support for Ukraine, it’s thought that, in government, the right is more likely to be a disrupter than supporter of European unity.
Right now, support for Ukraine across the democratic world is hanging together. But the longer the stalemate on the battlefront drags on — and the deeper the perceptions of stalemate become engrained — the greater the risk that something will fracture that unity.
There are now 27 countries presently forming the European union, where there are 24 official languages and a myriad of ethnic and cultural groups. Reflect, if you would, Christopher, on the extraordinary achievement of this bloc to spring from the devastation and division of World War II to the present, where this hugely diverse congromoration has build the most prosperous trade group in the world. Sure, there are lots of problems, but essentially, the group reaches the kind of compromises that consolidate its strength. Six states and two territories in Australia cannot reach consensus on anything. The USA is a basket case of flagrant anti-democratic activity and Britain – that exEmpire, where the sun never rises – is hurtling headlong into the hole it dug for itself by leaving the EU and effectively imposing trade sanctions on itself. Europe’s stability is drawn from the lessons of war and its devastating consequences. These lessons are deeply engrained in the European psyche. Because the EU is built mainly on social democratic principles, it annoys the bejayus out of the USA, whose philosophy is counter to this. It pissed off Britain’s Tories for the same reason and, unfortunately, here in Australia, Morrison’s contempt for Europe was blatantly manifest in his devious dealings with Macron and, I feel, this stems from the very strong Anglo element here, who feel much as Britain does about the EU. Less of the gloom about Europe, Christopher. I am irish and European and very proud to be so.
Agree absolutely, the EU and even Europe has been constantly denigrated by Anglosphere media with the usual suspects central to help support Brexit then Trump, while many Oz LNP types regularly dog whistled the EU except for e.g. Hungary.
Eerily, many Anglo types seem to concur with Putin on EU or western Europe, distaste for liberal democracy, rule of law, open society and empowered citizens.
If one asks an Anglo EU sceptic for an example, they generally bluster and blather because in fact the EU is accepted by most Europeans and much negativity is simply invented agitprop.
“Europe’s initial enthusiasm for solitary with Ukraine”? Do you guys proofread your articles at all?
As a recent subscriber, I’m increasingly becoming disappointed by the level of journalism on this site. I suppose, based on this experience that if the news is not free to read, it wasn’t worth bothering to read in the first place.
Not really a stalemate at all.
Russian advances are slow and steady.
And likely, in absence of any attempt to negotiate, permanent.
Almost at Mykolaiv now and Odessa in near future.
If Zelensky wants to ignore his US/UK neocon handlers and negotiate, Ukraine may not end up as the mini statelette it looks like it could soon become.
Negotiate what? Oh, hang on, you just invaded my home and you refuse to leave so how about I just agree to give the parts of my home you want and we stop fighting. Yeah, right. What sort of fked up reasoning is that? It is simply a recipe for more war for as long as the invaders insist on staying on.
An appropriate handle if you think that is a comparable metaphor.
Well played, a personal slur is the master move!
Nonsense.
Not a stalemate, a complete and utter rout of the Russian forces.
The central European states are not “host to the most (Ukrainian) refugees”. Russia had taken in 1.96 million as of August 2 – more than the total registered (though not necessarily hosted) by Poland and the Czech republic combined, according to the UNHCR (https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine/location?secret=unhcrrestricted). It’d be nice if, just for once, crikey looked at both sides of this war.
Crikey’s ‘coverage’ of the Ukraine/Russia conflict has been woeful – they seem unable, or unwilling, to cover it in any way other than the insulting ‘Russia bad – US good’ narrative.
While they proudly and loudly fight the case for ‘press freedom’, their one sided coverage of this conflict illustrates the utter hypocrisy of Crikey’s current legal case against Murdoch.
Don’t imagine that it wouldn’t become a mini-mudorc if sufficient blandishments were proffered when/if NewsCorpse crumbles.
It already has form and a long dishonourable rap-sheet when it comes to abuses of free speech, partisan not to say unhinged reporting on pet topics, wildly commerically compromised articles and not just by ‘a certain board member’ and very unattractive to kick down, kiss up.
No need to bother mentioning the generally low standard of writing, weak attempts at humour & the usual tawdry hit pieces from some of its less capable/ethically challenged interns with bees in their bonnets.
Taken into custody. Genocide and ethnic cleansing. The greatest crime of the 21st century.
Zelenski started off by defending the country from an invasion. But unfortunately he now wants to win the war that started in 2014, helped by billions of US dollars in armaments. The questions of Crimea and the Donbas pro Russian zones should have been settled by diplomacy well before the invasion which might have then not taken place.
Exactly what Chamberlain thought in 1939.
Rather different situation. A little more reading might be useful.
or in your case, a LOT more reading
The failure lies in the EU not accepting Ukraine years ago, thereby failing to come to Ukraine’s defence against Russian imperialism. However, democracy will prevail, and the stolen territories will be returned.