Somewhere in the Baltic Sea is a bubbling swirl that spreads for more than a kilometre, spitting natural gas into the atmosphere.
The unexplained damage which has caused the massive leaks from the two Nord Stream pipelines which pump Russian gas to Europe have been called a terrorist act, an environmental disaster and even a war crime.
Russia, which partly owns the pipes, immediately became the prime suspect.
Background
German newspaper Der Spiegel has reported that the CIA contacted German officials several weeks ago about the possibility of attacks against Baltic pipelines. Indeed, worries over an attack on undersea infrastructure go back years: in 2017, the commander of NATO submarine forces warned: “We are now seeing Russian underwater activity in the vicinity of undersea cables that I don’t believe we have ever seen.”
It was on Monday that a seismograph on the Danish island of Bornholm recorded a series of spikes in the Swedish and Danish waters where the pipelines pass. Germany then reported pressure loss on both pipelines. There are four ruptures in total — two in the Danish economic zone, two in the Swedish. German officials believe the pipelines are likely to be beyond repair. Sweden and Denmark both swiftly concluded it was a deliberate act, not an accident — though neither would be drawn on who they thought responsible.
Russia
Ukraine displayed no such caution. Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak called the damage a “terrorist attack” and an act of aggression towards the European Union perpetrated by Russia.
The Kremlin said any implication of Russian involvement was “stupid”, but it does appear to agree this was deliberately done: President Vladimir Putin apparently told his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Thursday that it was “an act of international terrorism”.
Seperately, conspiracy theorists such as Fox News’ Tucker Carlson has pointed the finger at his own country. He and a few others have shared footage from February of this year featuring US President Joe Biden saying he would “end” Nord Stream 2 if Russia invaded Ukraine.
Environmental impact
Scientists say the methane leaking from the pipes has the potential to be the largest natural gas leak in history, and could result in major and highly damaging emissions. The Danish Energy Agency said this week that the leaks would equate to about 14 million tonnes of CO2, or nearly a third of Denmark’s annual emissions. But it’s hard to quantify at this stage; estimates of the leak range from 100,000 to 350,000 tonnes of methane. And it’s also been pointed out that whatever emissions are caused by this event will pale in comparison to global annual emissions.
Atmospheric chemist David McCabe, who is senior scientist at the non-profit Clean Air Task Force, told Reuters there were a number of factors that made the final impact uncertain, including the temperature of the gas, the rate of leak, and how much was being absorbed by microbes in the water on the way to the surface.
Hybrid war
Hans Tino Hansen, the CEO of Risk Intelligence, a Denmark security firm that deals with maritime issues, told Wired that this was “a very classic Russian hybrid warfare approach”. If Russia did commit the attack, it would have “complete deniability” because it partly owns the Nord Stream infrastructure (which is precisely what Russia has since said).
“They are showing that they can attack seabed energy infrastructure, with the pipelines, which then sends the signal that they can attack and destroy any energy infrastructure in Europe,” Hansen said.
The timing is also suggestive: the explosions come a day after an alternative pipeline from Norway to Poland, put in place to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas, was completed. Niklas Granholm of FOI, Sweden’s defence-research agency, told The Economist that the attacks may be a show of force, a show of what Russia is capable of and willing to do to deter the EU from further sanctions.
As The Times points out, it’s not just energy that could be compromised by undersea attack but communications infrastructure, which military analysts have called “vast and in many cases indefensible”.
Future targets could include the cables that carry sensitive financial information across the Atlantic, risking a market crash, or those that supply entire regions such as Orkney, Shetland or parts of Italy with their internet access, according to one former US Navy submarine warfare strategist.
Say, Charlie, you might want to mention the tweet from the Polish foreign minister (since deleted) showing a picture of the gas bubbling in the sea with the words “Thanks USA”. It would seem there might be more than one “prime suspect”.
Of course, with the pipelines now cut, and possibly irretrievably damaged, it would preclude the German government having a change of heart about energy sources. Of course, they might still buy gas from the USA, at a somewhat higher price than they might have paid for the same product from another supplier, but what’s money when there’s a “rules based international order” at stake?
Before the gas began bubbling up last week, the Germans had fast tracked a terminal to receive US liquified gas at only 3 times the cost.
Now they’ll have “…buy gas from the USA, at a somewhat higher price..” 5X? do I hear 10X?
Entirely a coincidence or Russia trying to create its very own budget deficit after a summer of huge revenues?
It’s a weird war. Ukraine is killing its own people and shelling its own towns, apparently, just to make Russia look bad. And Russia is blowing up its own revenue streams, apparently, just to make the US or Ukraine look bad.
Does the US need any assistance to be regarded poorly?
I just respect Russia instead-
“A carton of milk left next to your fridge will have stayed fresh longer than Lyman was part of Russia.”- @DarthPutinKGB
(Can I get more than 7 down votes for respecting Mother Russia this time?)
This and my related comment above have had two downvotes overnight – some people don’t like plain facts, do ’em?
Fact is – we really don’t know what happened to the pipeline – unless you have secret info you’d like to share?
What we do know is that Russia should probably now ask NATO for protection from Ukraine!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/03/russia-has-no-full-control-of-any-of-four-annexed-ukrainian-provinces
And now that idiot Blinkin has come out and said “what a great opportunity to remove EU dependency on Russian gas” and “now they can buy LNG from the US”.
For sure, it’s never good to put all your eggs in one basket.
Like trusting only the Russian Government-
“My logistics so bad I’ll be first Russian leader to lose to Russian winter. I remain a master strategist.” – @DarthPutinKGB
On February 7, 2022 Biden met with Germany’s new leader Monday and vowed the crucial Nord Stream 2 Russia-to-Germany gas pipeline will be blocked if Russia further invades Ukraine. “If Russia invades, that means tanks and troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,” Biden said. “We will bring an end to it.”
When asked how, given that it was in the Baltic under German control he said “I promise you. We will be able to do it.””
Reminds me of the US sub “Halibut” which the CIA had built to salvage the Russian sub K129 in deep water, without the Russians knowing. Silly in this case of Biden to say they’ll do it. A double bluff, maybe. If in doubt, follow the money.
If he had greater mental activity that seems evident I’d say that the look on his face when the reporter asked ‘How’ meant he was thinking “Duhh, did I say that but out loud…?”
Mental activity is important.
“The annexation claims were so muddled that Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, found himself forced to acknowledge on Monday that Russia’s borders — as the Russian government newly defines them — remained in flux.” – NY Times
“Also in this clip: Dmitry Sablin claims the West occupied Russia in the 1990s and caused apartment bombings [linked to Putin’s rise to power]. You might also be surprised to learn that Belarus is a part of Russia, Belarusian guest was certainly in shock.”
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1576797659943559169
The guileless lack of skepticism displayed in this piece is baffling. It is unlikely anyone except the guilty party will ever know for sure who did this, but even just a simple use of Occam’s Razor would put the USA at the top of the pile of most likely suspects.
Even if you ignore the previous very blunt comments by President Biden and USA under-Secretary of State Nuland about taking out Nord Stream 2, the USA government has been complaining about & opposing Nord Stream for years, including during the Trump administration. The USA also has the most to gain economically from increasing gas sales to Europe & has a vested interest in stopping European countries backsliding on sanctions against Russia in the face of public discontent with skyrocketing energy costs.
This doesn’t mean the USA definitely did it, but to just reinforce a lazy “must’ve been Russia, because they’re Russia” isn’t good enough.
It’s already hard enough to find the truth in amongst the oceans of propaganda and the walls of censorship without uncritically adding to it.
When Germany decided to hook up to Russian gas Ronnie Raygun threatened heavy excise on imports (especially expensive cars & luxury goods) and imposed sanctions of companies involved in the provision of pipelines and infrastructure.
They smiled and said “Yes, sir,” and went ahead, culminating in chancellor Schröder who, entirely co-incidently after leaving office, went on to become seriously wealthy working for Nord Stream AG, Rosneft, and Gazprom.
The Yanks have prior form on this sort of thing. They undertook an attack on Nicaragua’s oil infrastructure in Puerto Sandino in 1983. Back then CIA officers, based on a ship moored in international waters, coordinated a raid by commandos they had trained to fight against the Sandinista government.
Done it once, so must’ve done it again.
The maxim post hoc ergo propter hoc is an informal fallacy and common error in logic
There you go.
It’s so obvious that it can be said in a dead language. Only the plebs won’t understand it.
Keep an eye on the under-secretary of State Nuland. She has far more effective power and influence than her title would suggest. She is more than an éminence grise – what she says goes.
‘ Just reinforce a lazy “must’ve been Russia, because they’re Russia” isn’t good enough.’ Hear, hear. This isn’t what I paid to read in Crikey. Unfiltered, uncritical and OBVIOUSLY incorrect Westerm Propaganda. Charlie Lewis, lift your game, Mate.
“OBVIOUSLY incorrect Westerm Propaganda. Charlie Lewis, lift your game, Mate”.
Gold.
Who ended up with the Iraqi oil fields? After an illegal invasion of a sovereign nation and the death of 160,000 Iraqis? surely that should have brought in sanctions and war crime charges
‘Keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down’.
So said NATO’s first Secretary General, Lord Ismay, when explaining the aims behind the organisation, when first established in 1949.
All going to plan, it would appear…
It’s quite uncanny how everything Secretary General, Lord Ismay ever said eventuates.
How come the US doesnt get a mention as a suspect? Wouldn’t they be the most likely suspects?
I just go with whatever the Russian Government says, especially since Russian intelligence failed to predict the Russian invasion of Ukraine.