WA Nursing staff during a protest in Perth last month (Image: AAP/Richard Wainwright)

Its detractors called it the “most radical shake-up of Australia’s industrial relations system in decades” — a “throwback from the ’70s” that promised to “cripple” or “bring disaster” to the business community.

The countervailing view was that Labor’s new workplace reforms, secured on the final sitting day of Parliament, constituted nothing short of a “victory for working people” across the country.

But the very prominence of either claim, others say, conceals the reality the reforms are of themselves unlikely to halt the decades-long decline of unions, much less return the union movement to the heights witnessed in its halcyon days.

“Unions are too weak and the barriers to industrial action are too high [for the reforms] to allow a return to anything resembling the 1970s,” said University of Sydney industrial relations expert Chris Wright, who recently wrote an op-ed on his support for multi-employer collective bargaining.

Far from representing a force to be reckoned with, the story of the union movement for the past 40 years is one of uninterrupted decline. Since its peak in the 1970s, when union members made up more than half the Australian workforce, the percentage of union members has plunged to 12.5% today — its lowest level in nearly 120 years.

Against the backdrop of historically low industrial action, the particulars of ABS data released on Thursday sustain the narrative, with union coverage accounting for just 5% of employees aged 20-24, compared with about 20% for those aged 55-64.

“Dire is way too weak an adjective” for the data, tweeted Tim Lyons, a former assistant secretary for the Australian Council of Trade Unions, adding that “existential crisis” would barely suffice either.

“It’s well past time for a lot more organising,” he said, “And to focus [union lobbying efforts] on giving workers better rights to organise.”

University of Melbourne professor in international labour and employment law Sean Cooney was of a similar view, telling Crikey the erosion of the union movement would continue unabated without measures that directly countered the pressures brought to bear by the structural fragmentation of the workforce.

“It’s possible [the multi-employer bargaining laws] might bring more employees into contact with unions, but that doesn’t directly say that will create more union members,” he said.

“Unless workers can talk to each other when they’re working from home or working in fragmented workplaces, it’s going to be hard to arrest the decline [of unions],” he added, citing the barriers fashioned by the rise of the gig economy and outsourcing across certain industries.

“The ability of people to communicate with each other is a really basic, fundamental right in other countries, yet from a legal perspective our system just doesn’t make that easy here.”

In this connection, Cooney said much of this difficulty could be traced to the extraordinary regulatory power of industrial authorities since the ’90s to restrict or limit industrial action in myriad ways.

The subsequent weakening of union power, coupled with the fact enterprise agreements apply to employees regardless of union affiliation, had in turn probably reduced the perceived advantages of union membership in the eyes of employees, particularly young people.

“It then becomes a collective action problem in classical terms — people start to wonder: ‘Well, what am I paying for?’,” he said.

This was especially the case in circumstances in which wage growth had long been depressed or non-existent in real terms — a trend which research across the board has directly linked to lower unionisation rates.

From 1975 to 2016, for instance, real wages increased by 74% for the top tenth of earners in Australia, but just 24% for the bottom tenth. In the same period, household income inequality, wealth inequality and top income inequality measures all increased.

There has, however, been something of a resistance to acceptance of these views in Australia — particularly the established fact collective bargaining increases overall productivity to the benefit of the whole economy. In Cooney’s view, so much owes to the tendency of the debate on the role of unions and collective bargaining to be too readily reduced to one of harm to employers or business.

“All over the world, in most countries across Europe, Asia and South America, collective bargaining is either a constitutional right or recognised as a human right,” he said.

“But here, the debate never proceeds like that. Here there’s a sense we can’t ever use the language of rights — the debate is only ever framed around efficiency or whether collective bargaining will hurt businesses.”

This was reflected in the recent industrial relations reforms, which included scant reference to the standards set by the UN International Labour Organization.

In Cooney’s view, unless the federal government embraces a rights-based approach to collective bargaining — or, at minimum, makes basic changes to improve the ability of workers to organise — unions could well remain in terminal decline.

With that, history tells us, will come widening inequality and, over time, the gradual erosion of hard-won fundamental workplace rights.

Is the Australian union movement on its way out? What will the future of industrial relations look like? Let us know your thoughts by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.