The seats to watch — your guide to the NSW election

NSW could change government for the first time since 2011 after the votes are counted tonight.

It’s a tight race, but several recent polls have shown Labor increasing its lead over the Coalition, and betting markets are giving more than five times the money if the current government wins again. 

However it’s far from a sure thing, and many analysts believe a hung Parliament is possible. In the case of a Labor victory, it appears more likely the party would form a minority government rather than sweep into power on a large state-wide swing. 

“I don’t think anyone is going to emerge as a winner by tonight, I think there’ll be a number of seats that are going to be too close to call,” Sydney University politics professor Rodney Smith told Crikey.

The magic number of lower house seats required to form government is 47. There are 46 seats regarded by the ABC’s Antony Green as having margins in the Coalition’s favour, and 38 leaning Labor — although some of those margins are razor-thin. 

There are also a handful of seats with margins favouring the Greens or independents. 

Smith said it was theoretically possible that Labor could form a minority government with just 44 seats, with support from either Greens or independents. It’s also possible Labor could flop, and Premier Dominic Perrottet could beat his re-election odds.

Below are some of the seats that will be interesting to watch tonight.

And don’t forget, you can tune into our liveblog at 6.00pm AEDT to follow our election coverage as the votes roll in.

Kogarah

Labor Leader Chris Minns’ seat has one of the most extreme margins in the state: 0.1%. As Crikey has reported previously, that’s just a few dozen votes, and it’s not impossible to imagine a scenario where Minns loses his seat in Parliament while his party goes on to form government without him. Challengers include pokies whistleblower and independent Troy Stolz, and Liberal Craig Chung.

East Hills

This seat in Sydney’s southwest also has a 0.1% margin. Liberal incumbent Wendy Lindsay will be facing off against Labor’s Kylie Wilkinson. 

Leppington

A newly created electorate where anything can happen. The margin is 1.5% in favour of Labor’s candidate Nathan Hagarty, competing against Liberal Camden mayor Therese Fedeli. “We don’t know who is going to take that — the Liberal Party could get lucky,” Smith said. Sky News Australia reported this week Labor was polling at 40% in the seat, compared with the Liberal Party’s 32%.

Heathcote 

Liberal incumbent Lee Evans, who has held on to the seat for 12 years, had his margin chopped by a recent redistribution, and the seat now skews Labor by 1.7%. Maryanne Stuart is Labor’s candidate. 

Penrith 

The western Sydney seat where ex-deputy Liberal leader Stuart Ayres has a margin of just 0.6% has been described by some observers as one of Labor’s most gettable. “It’s a tight seat, everyone can see the margin. [But] we’ve got a really strong track record,” Ayres told Crikey. His Labor opponent is Karen McKeown.

Kiama 

Incumbent MP Gareth Ward is currently before the courts on allegations of sexual offenses which he denies. Before being charged, he was a Liberal, and he remains popular in the south coast area. Crikey understands some senior Liberals are worried Ward could win over the party’s candidate, south Sydney blow-in and former Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons. 

Murray

Incumbent MP Helen Dalton left the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party and is now an independent. She faces a candidate from her former party, and a challenger from the Nationals, which used to hold the regional seat. The exact same situation is playing out in Barwon and Orange, where the former Shooters members are now independent as well — although Dalton’s margin is slimmer. Can the trio of ex-Shooters keep the seats they snatched from the Nats? 

Lane Cove 

The local member, Anthony Roberts, is a conservative Liberal and the state’s planning minister. Like several of his colleagues in nearby seats on Sydney’s north shore and northern beaches, he faces a teal independent challenger. Liberals aren’t too worried about a major teal wave, but Lane Cove is seen as one of the most at-risk. Other Lib seats with teal challengers include Manly, North Shore, Willoughby, Pittwater, and Wakehurst. Willoughby, which was once represented by the popular former premier Gladys Berejiklian, and the North Shore, are two of the seats where Perrottet campaigned on Friday.

In Wakehurst, where Health Minister Brad Hazzard is retiring, his hopeful Liberal successor Toby Williams was recently polling 50-50 with his independent rival, Northern Beaches mayor Michael Regan, according to Sky News Australia.

Balmain 

The inner-west Sydney seat was once safe Labor territory, but retiring Greens MP Jamie Parker has held it since 2011. His party mate Kobi Shetty hopes to keep the seat green, while Labor’s Philippa Scott hopes to turn it red again. 

Lismore 

The Greens hope to take Lismore from Labor, and nearby Tweed from the Nationals. Lismore is on a 2% margin and Tweed on 5%. Some in the party reckon the floods that smashed the area last year could prompt voters to go green.

Upper Hunter

The Nationals retained the seat in a 2021 byelection. Labor had hoped to win that contest, and the failure to do so was a major reason ex-party leader Jodi McKay was ousted in favour of Minns. Can Labor take it this time? The margin is a thin 0.5%, and the member of the overlapping federal seat is from Labor.

Other seats with thin margins

There are a total of 35 seats with margins under 10% in NSW, according to a research paper Antony Green produced for the NSW Parliamentary Research Service.

Currently held by the Coalition

East Hills (LIB) 0.1%

Upper Hunter (NAT) 0.5%

Penrith (LIB) 0.6%

Goulburn (LIB) 3.1%

Willoughby (LIB v IND) 3.3%

Tweed (NAT) 5.0%

Winston Hills (LIB)  5.7%

Holsworthy (LIB)  6.0%

Wollondilly (LIB v IND) 6.0%

Riverstone (LIB) 6.2%

Parramatta (LIB)  6.5%

Oatley (LIB)  6.8%

Camden (LIB)  7.3%

Ryde (LIB) 8.9%

Myall Lakes (NAT) 9.3%

Badgerys Creek (LIB) 9.7%

Currently held by Labor

Kogarah 0.1%

Leppington 1.5%

Heathcote 1.7%

Lismore 2.0%

Coogee 2.3%

Londonderry 3.0%

Bega 5.1%

Strathfield 5.2%

The Entrance 5.3%

Port Stephens 5.8%

Gosford 7.1%

Maroubra 8.3%

Prospect 8.6%

Granville 9.4%

Rockdale 10.0%

Currently held by the crossbench

Murray (IND v NAT) 2.8%

Ballina (GRN v NAT) 4.9%

Barwon (IND v NAT) 6.6%

Balmain (GRN v ALP) 10.0%