As rumours swirl about Scott Morrison’s retirement from Parliament, the Liberal Party has already begun discussing who should replace him.
The two strongest and most obvious contenders are ex-NSW attorney general Mark Speakman and Sutherland Shire Mayor Carmelo Pesce. Both represent areas that overlap with the former prime minister’s electorate of Cook and both have long been seen as keen for the opportunity, although neither has confirmed it.
When Crikey hit the phones with those in the party, the names of other contenders came up as well, including ex-NSW MP Melanie Gibbons and Gwen Cherne, a family advocate commissioner at the Department of Veterans’ Affairs.
Gibbons, whose former state electorate is Holsworthy (just west of Cook), lost a bid for the seat of Kiama at the recent state election. She told Crikey she has no current plans to throw her hat in the ring in the event of a Morrison retirement.
“I’m taking a little break from politics at the moment,” she said.
Cherne did not respond to an email from Crikey. We’re told she has been floated as a possible contender for Cook by Senator Andrew Bragg, who was described by two Liberal sources as a supporter of hers.
Interestingly, Cherne has previously been touted as a possible candidate for the federal seat of Hughes — by Morrison, of all people.
The Australian reported ahead of the 2022 federal election that Morrison had tried to install Cherne as a “captains pick” in Hughes, which is also located in the Sutherland Shire area, and where the Liberal Party lost its footing when local member Craig Kelly defected.
There were two problems then, that might still be at play today.
“Cherne is a dual national [and] unable to stand for Parliament,” The Australian reported in April last year.
The American-Australian is also reportedly not a member of the Liberal Party.
Perhaps that’s why she’s seen as being able to rise above factional politics: her current supposed endorser, Bragg — who declined to comment — is a moderate, whereas Morrison is of the centre-right.
Speaking of factions, Crikey understands Liberal branches in the Shire are split three ways, with right-wingers controlling about 40%, moderates with 30%, and another, unaligned moderate faction with the remaining 30%.
The Liberal Party state executive would have a say in any future preselection as well.
Pesce, who also declined to comment, is said to be open to a tilt at Cook if Morrison retires and Speakman doesn’t run.
His mayoral tenure was described as “colourful” in a 2019 Sydney Morning Herald story: “He was threatened by a disgruntled ratepayer, hit by a drunk driver and subjected to an expletive-laden rant last year by [Kelly]”.
Speakman, a silk, a moderate, and the MP for the state seat of Cronulla, is reportedly weighing up his options following his party’s defeat at the recent NSW election.
“He wants it bad,” one source said of Speakman’s ambition for Cook.
Speakman’s other option would be to run for state opposition leader. That appointment will be decided at a party room meeting in the near future. The Liberals are waiting for the state’s electoral commission to finalise vote counting from the March 25 election before going ahead with the leadership ballot.
Check counts are due to finish Wednesday, and the official lower house results will be presented on Friday. The NSW seat of Ryde is on a knife’s edge, with the Liberal candidate just 50 votes ahead of his Labor rival.
Official upper house results won’t be known until April 20.
Speakman is seen inside the party as an obvious choice for NSW Liberal leader, and many of his colleagues reckon the only thing that could throw him off that path would be a run for Cook.
“There’s really only a few credible options for NSW opposition leader: Speakman, [ex-skills minister Alister] Henskens, and Robbo,” a source said.
Robbo is the nickname for ex-planning minister Anthony Roberts, who held on to his north shore seat of Lane Cove against a teal threat in the recent election.
A right-winger and one of the NSW Liberals’ most senior MPs, elected in 2003, Roberts told Crikey he was considering putting his hand up for the leadership position, although he hadn’t formally done so yet.
“Anyone who wants to take on the mantle of leading the [NSW] Liberal Party would need to also build a platform to win the next election,” he said.
If Speakman really is weighing up whether to run for state leader or for Cook, he’ll have to make up his mind soon.
The leadership contest will almost certainly happen before any potential Morrison resignation, and if Speakman goes for one, he’ll likely give up on the other.
Speakman, who couldn’t be reached by Crikey, told local Shire newspaper The Leader he’d had “fruitful discussions” with his state colleagues about the opposition leader position.
He did not rule out running in Cook.
“I’ll cross that bridge if I come to it,” he said during the election campaign.
So will Morrison actually retire? Some Liberals believe so, while others dismissed the idea as pure speculation.
Morrison’s office gave Crikey a simple “no comment” when asked about it, but he was slightly more talkative when reached by The Sydney Morning Herald at the weekend.
“I am focused on doing my job in my local electorate, helping the parliamentary party and supporting the leader,” he said.
That newspaper reported six of Morrison’s colleagues said he was expected to resign between the May 9 budget and the end of 2023.
If Morrison did retire, the Cook byelection would heap pressure on Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, who recently oversaw a historic defeat in the Victorian seat of Aston.
Cook has a margin of about 12.4%, much larger than what the Liberals had in Aston, but locals say they aren’t taking Cook for granted. A source said a popular and local candidate — such as Speakman — would have a good chance of retaining the seat.
“But if [factional leaders in the party] helicopter someone in, that’s a high risk,” the source told Crikey.
Who’s the hot pick for Cook? Can anyone fill ScoMo’s shoes? Let us know your thoughts by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
Correction: A previous version of this story incorrectly said the Liberal Party head office would have a say in a future preselection. It is actually the Liberal Party’s state executive that would weigh in.
Here’s the solution or the Libs. Speakman become Lib leader in NSW. Perrottet stands for Cook and wins it. Perrottet goes to Canberra, and sometime before Christmas shafts Dutton. Barnaby Joyce goes rogue and resigns from Parliament because Dom is too woke. Win for the Libs and a gain for sanity.
That’s very sensible option, which probably rules it out.
Great bit of lateral thinking and I love the picture you’ve drawn, but might Blackadder say of this cunning plan of Baldrick’s “You haven’t allowed for the mouth-breathers in the Liberal party room. For this plan to work, they have to vote for Dom. That would be in the best interest of our democracy, good governance and the Australian people. What are the chances of that, do you think?
But he’d be jumping up every time one of the clowns shouted ‘Mistah speauka’.
Dom move south of the Harbour? Not in a million years!
Neither the locals nor Perrottet would want him representing a Shire electorate. If anything, Perrottet could run in Mitchell if Alex Hawke retires
Why would Dom be votable for anywhere. He was a donkey deep part of the NSW Libs shenanigans . . .
Yes. And pigs will fly. Perrottet standing for Cook would be the best hope Labor has of picking it up. Perrottet couldn’t shaft a lamb kebab. He’d most likely injure himself trying. Where would the win be for Australia in your scenario? 2 entrenched Libs in safe seats. We should be planning for the next federal election and campaigning against Dutton in Dickson. He is on a margin of less than 3%. He may be the 3rd Liberal leader to lose his seat. There is something to aim for.
With a 12.4% buffer the chances of Labor or a TEAL candidate taking the seat are not good. That means the Liberal Party will need to think hard about what it really wants. Does it want to swerve hard right to help Dutton with his destruction of the Liberal Party or do they select a moderate candidate who might try to bring the Party back to the centre and thereby make it more electable.
I don’t really care. The Liberal Party still has failed to understand why it lost two recent elections and in so doing lost the federal government and the mainland. It needs to keep on losing until it wakes up. So my hope is that they manage to lose Cook despite the swing necessary to achieve that.
A majority in Cook would vote for Liberal candidate if they BBQ’d babies on their front lawn (I stole that).
That’s how we used to think about Higgins, Kooyong, Goldstein and co.
Maybe not this time, but next election?
Yes but these Melbourne electorates are intelligent. Not so the Shire. Despite their wealth it is predicated on ostentation and lack of class. More so than anywhere in the Hills past or present. I remember the dark days of the cringeworthy Sylvania Waters. In the Shire they are so in-bred it is said that all the guys there make love to their sisters. That’s why everyone there looks alike. It is said of Wollongong that it is Mount Druitt by the sea. Well The Shire is Cullen Bullen by the sea.
I’ve no idea about how the voters in Cook think of their responsibility, but given that they have managed to elect Morrison SIX times, you’d have to think that Jack the Ripper would get elected if he got a Liberal endorsement.
You’d have to think that a credible Teal candidate should be able to trash the Liberals in Cook…………………..
…………Morrison would have to be the ultimate “Horrible example”.
I’d certainly be contributing if they do come up with someone.
The Liberals need to suffer a complete thrashing if they are to stand any chance of reform.
Still won’t change ’em.
The thought of bringing the Liberal Party back to the centre, passing the Labor Party on the way .. oh dear!
What about the Lebanese guy that won the preselection before Head Office parachuted Scott in? A hard right family guy.
Where on earth could Scotty make as much as the $217,060pa (plus allownces) of a back-bencher? Pastoral work can’t pay that much and he’d perhaps make a few quid on the talk circuit as a kind of freak show exhibit, but that would be short lived.
As for conventional employment, surely there isn’t an HR department in all Christendom incompetent enough to let him past the application stage, but let’s suppose he got past the first round of interviews and then had to do psychometric testing. Can you imagine his face contorting as he tried to finesse the questions designed to filter out sociopaths?
Sample question: A colleague is deeply bereaved after the death of a close family member. Do you express:
a) enthalpy
b) entropy
c) empathy
d) Just tell me how you want me to spin it, baby!
Best response yet.
Scomo won’t be easy to replace.
Which, all things considered, is a good thing.
Give the painting of an Eagle a run………………………
Yeah, because a proper replacement would involve the forgiveness of the Libs by Michael Towke, which probably isn’t forthcoming as long as there’s no ice in hell…
I doubt anyone would employ Schmorrison in case he nominated himself as CEO by stealth. He has demonstrated his profound untrustworthiness on the world stage in so many ways that whoever offers him a job will need to have a food taster, bodyguard and an army of spies to protect themselves. Russia sounds nice……
He could join the Fire Department,oh wait!
Well, his book will be used for toilet paper, the NRL won’t touch him because he steamrolls kiddies, as a chef he adds raw chicken as a garnish to his tikka masala, he practices polishing turds, and he uses toilet paper to clean his tongue. There is no future for Scomo unless he donned a clown suit and red nose and did birthday party appearances for children on the weekends.