Elise Archer (Image: AAP/Rob Blakers)

The nation’s last remaining Liberal government is in turmoil in Tasmania, with Premier Jeremy Rockliff facing an insurgency from dumped Attorney-General Elise Archer. The drama is a result of its distinct voting system and its intense knot of contradictions as a polity and a parliament. Crikey explains the chaos.

Archer? I hardly know her!

Archer stepped down last Friday after news of a probe into allegations of bullying against her (allegations she denies) and then a series of texts she had allegedly sent got into the hands of The Australian. On the leaked text Scoville scale (where then-NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian calling then-PM Scott Morrison a “horrible, horrible person” and a “psycho” gets the Carolina Reaper score), the texts are just above medium spicy — she calls Rockliff “gutless” in one text, and talks about his predecessors Peter Gutwein (who she calls “insecure” and a “glass jaw”) and Will Hodgman (who, according to the Oz she “appears to describe” as “a liar”). Beyond that, a female ministerial advisor is called an “airhead”, a departmental secretary gets called “fucking useless” and a male minister is, apparently, “shit”. The Oz says she doesn’t deny sending the texts, and that “at least two current or former staff members of Archer’s have raised allegations of bullying and inappropriate behaviour with [the state’s] Anti-Discrimination Commissioner Sarah Bolt”.

Archer had a different explanation for her resignation: “It is clear to me that the leadership of the Liberal Party continues to fail to support ambitious women.”

If Archer leaves Parliament, her replacement would be a Liberal selected via a recount. But just to really spit on Rockliff’s breakfast, Archer is now airily considering staying on as an independent. This is where Tasmania’s electoral system comes into play.

It’s always the electoral system

Be it irony or inevitability, this calamity comes after a period of electoral success the Liberals have never previously enjoyed in the state. Tasmania is one of two jurisdictions in Australia to use the Hare-Clark system, wherein the state is divided into five electoral divisions that each return five members through proportional representation. This means the difference between a “landslide” victory (15 seats) and governing in minority is three seats. It only takes a minuscule percentage to potentially make that kind of change, depending on where it falls. According to psephologist Kevin Bonham, majorities have been formed with as little as 44.79% of the vote and have failed to materialise with as much as 47.68% (Labor again, in 1969). The Libs got more than 50% of the statewide vote in 2018 and still only scraped a single-seat majority, which they retained in 2021, despite complicated circumstances (see below) and a slight swing against them.

Not the premier Premier

As we’ve said, Tasmania is traditionally a miserable spot for the Liberals. Will Hodgman changed all that, taking over after the party’s meagre haul of seven seats in the 2006 election, he hauled them back to parity in 2010, and in 2014 they won a comprehensive victory. He retained office with another big win in 2018 — only the second time in the state’s history that the Liberals had achieved successive parliamentary majorities — thanks to Tasmania’s strong economic performance, or the ability of the gaming industry to buy elections, depending on who you ask.

He unexpectedly quit in January 2020, replaced by his treasurer, Peter Gutwein, who decided to cash his COVID bonus and call an early election in May 2021, which gave Tasmania its first-ever three-term Liberal government. Less than a year later, Gutwein called it quits too. He was replaced by moderate and long-time deputy premier Rockliff, who has continued the trend since Hodgman by becoming less and less popular with voters. With the Archer drama ramping up, and only 10 locked-in votes for the Liberals on the floor of Parliament, he faces a serious risk of a vote of no confidence.

Turncoats as far as the eye can see

Wait, 10? Didn’t the Libs win 13 seats in 2021? Ah, but this is the real fun of Tassie politics — amidst this china-frail mode of election, the place is simply teeming with turncoats.

Apart from an attempt to cash in on the COVID bump enjoyed by incumbents at the time, another reason for the 2021 early election was the fact that Liberal speaker Sue Hickey quit the party after Gutwein told her she wouldn’t be endorsed at the next election. Hickey unsuccessfully ran as an independent in 2021. Part of the reason the Libs were able to weather her loss was the defection of Madeleine Ogilvie, who went from Labor to independent to Liberal between 2018 and 2021 and now serves as a minister in Rockliff’s government.

But then, in May of this year, Bass MP Lara Alexander and Lyons MP John Tucker resigned from the Liberal Party because they disagreed with the Rockliff government’s approach to a proposed AFL stadium and other infrastructure projects in the state. The pair have thus far continued to provide supply and confidence to Rockliff’s government.

What now?

Labor has ruled out offering confidence to Rockliff if a no-confidence vote was to take place, as has Archer, though she might change her tune if Rockliff was ousted. That said, Labor has offered Archer a pair when Parliament resumes — if she does leave Parliament. Rockliff, for his part, has insisted he will not call another snap election.