The defeat of the Voice to Parliament poses an interesting dilemma for Peter Dutton: does the opposition leader move on quickly or does he continue to dig into the wound he’s inflicted on Anthony Albanese?
The prime minister will want to move on as fast as possible, and can do so with the help of US President Joe Biden and China’s leader Xi Jinping. And as much as Dutton might want to keep reminding voters of how Albanese is a loser, he doesn’t want to keep talking about Indigenous affairs.
The next election will be fought over the cost of living and jobs and health, like all others. For many No voters, the prospect of hearing still more about First Peoples will be unpalatable — not to mention an ongoing reminder that they helped to humiliate and insult them. Dutton, sensing that, has already dumped his weird call for a second referendum and you can bet he won’t be talking about legislating a Voice any time soon — despite his promises.
But there’ll be two pressures on him that might make moving on quickly a little harder. One is that the No victory and campaign strategy has breathed new life into assimilationism, and not the weak variety either. Led by Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and with full-throated support from a number of her colleagues and News Corp, the new assimilationism proposes the complete obliteration of Indigenous programs and an end to separate Indigenous policies, a permanent rejection of any recognition of the historical fact of colonisation, and the dismissal of any traumas of colonisation as either a delusion or fabricated.
It’s a war against any suggestion that First Peoples are anything other than a minority engaging in special pleading.
This will create a persistent pressure from the right on Dutton to devote his time to culture wars and punching downward. Stand by for calls to end Welcome To Country (“divisive”), “mainstream” Indigenous programs, make ruling out Treaty a test for Labor, another Intervention in the name of sexual abuse of children, remove any Indigenous impediments to extractive industries, and change curriculums to erase any mention of the Indigenous experience of colonisation in the same way MAGA Republicans want to purge US schools of anything not white, Christian and heterosexual. After all, Australians just voted against all this woke rubbish — there’s a mandate for change.
Because the Liberal base is less affected by cost-of-living issues than ordinary Australians, the importance of culture wars, especially when whipped along by the Sky News zoo, will loom larger than political sense might dictate for Dutton.
The second is that the success of conspiracy theories, and especially claims of elite plots — already a tried and tested tactic of the far right used extensively during the campaign — will encourage their use. Already Price, desperate to argue that First Peoples didn’t strongly vote for the Voice, has picked up Dutton’s attacks on the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) and suggested a conspiracy to distort the votes of Indigenous communities. Expect — in defiance of the speed with which the AEC delivered a No result at the weekend — further claims of AEC interference. Indeed, can the Coalition trust the AEC to independently conduct the next election?
That is, why not stick with what’s working? For Dutton, that might be the cloud that accompanies the silver lining of inflicting a serious wound on Labor. He’s argued for much of the year that Labor was preoccupied with the Voice at the expense of “real issues”. He might be in danger of doing the same.
Has Dutton been a bit too clever for his own good? Let us know by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
“The opposition leader has scored a victory against Labor and the prime minister.
Yes, that’s what it has been about all along for the likes of Dutton, eh? Nothing to do with First Nations injustice. Not even anything to do with his constituency, really. I mean, it’s not as if white supremacists were ever in real danger of losing their perceived supremacy.
A bit like Robodebt too, in a way. Robodebt was never about saving the Commonwealth money, it was about punching down on people unable to defend themselves, and if a few people topped themselves because of it, who really give a stuff?
Always the same. Always the end justifies the means, and always the end is Dutton’s political power.
I think it is more a media beatup.
Most people around this patch seem to regard the “Voice”referendum as a side issue rather than a Lib-Lab core difference.
The “win”for Spud as it is portrayed as such by the MSM is to stir and put a boot into Lab.
If I were a Lib strategist I would be pushing Price at the expense of Spud for all that it is worth. She has shown her Lib. credentials to the LNP base, and as a potential Prime Minister, would attract a large Black following and vote.
Now that is a bit of a stretch.
We couldn’t handle a white woman as a Prime Minister so imagine an Indigenous one who, let’s face it, is an habitual liar( I know,par for the course for the Coalition).
I think we have just reexposed our racist underbelly for all to see.
Also I don’t think the majority of Indigenous who voted Yes are that shallow that they would swing behind Price – someone who has so disdainfully slapped them down!
I agree with a couple of your points.
Firstly, “re exposed our racist underbelly”. This is so true, and most of those people don’t believe that they are.
Secondly, Price seems to bend the truth to suit what she wants to say, and I think everything is more about Price herself.
She’d have to contend with the mean white girls of the Liberal Party first – can you imagine Sussssan Ley, Michaelia Cash etc letting her get ahead of them? She’s served her purpose, but wait till the white-anting starts. I’ve seen it happen with genuinely admirable Indigenous people appointed as tokens in government departments….and she isn’t.
Same goes for Mundine. Both too stupid to recognize they’ve been used.
Ken Wyatt, probably the only decent human being in the Morrison ministry, resigned from the Liberals over this issue. Says it all.
Yep.
If you think the Coalition would allow a Black woman to be leader you’re dreaming. And there would be virtually no indigenous support for her. She is reviled in the Black community. It’s white LNP voters who love her.
Think the forces behind ‘No’ are not just Dutton nor ‘Led by Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and with full-throated support from a number of her colleagues and News Corp’; though latter is central.
Same modus operandi and players behind Brexit and Trump, Oz proprietor and Koch* think tanks/influencers, with the outcome of the ‘issue’ ignored, that being divided electorates and society feeding into dysfunction in Parliament or Congress on behalf of fossil fuel etc. oligarch donors to block progress.
*Their socioeconomic muse has been James Buchanan, described as a proponent of not just Mont Pelerin libertarian policies etc. but ‘segregation’ or ‘planter’ economics, eugenics.
Then back to Price (linked to Koch linked CIS like Mundine) who has been lauded over by ‘No’ voters, maybe as a reward Dutton and LNP can parachute her into a safe LNP lower house ‘No’ electorate? Of course they would fully support her…..
Nailed it. It’s the republican party model imported to Australia. The next election will be worse.
You’ve hit upon a key point that Dutton can’t make too much capital of the victory as his victory was predicated on a group of voters who are sick of hearing about the referendum.
However, I think his undermining of our democratic institutions is a portent of what to expect at the next election. I suspect we’ll see a continued undermining of the AEC and further claims of left-wing bias.
The latter warning signals come from the linked Trump/GOP and Putin strategy, attack electoral systems and their integrity;.
The LNP was mooting ‘Voter ID’, direct from others ‘owning’ the former ie. Trump and sharing interests with the latter, Putin i.e. fossil fuels and anti-EU; Koch or Atlas Network via their ‘bill mill’ ALEC (UK Tories actually adopted Voter ID as voter suppression technique, masquerading as an integrity measure)
The Liberal base is less affected by cost-of-living issues than ordinary Australians,
Is this still true? The educated and well-off tended to vote Yes; it was people in more struggling areas who voted no, and who increasingly vote Liberal.
Probably “…the traditional liberal base…”.
People with economic security and a degree of confidence in their cultural hegemony can afford to be generous to the less fortunate. The liberal party has no need of such people, they just cause trouble and spread omicron-variant wokeness.
Dutton & the Libs will pursue Labor voters who identify either as hard done-by, or at the very least more hard done-by than other non-elite sub-groups. Loads of them exist. Bereft of actual ideas to help such people, I imagine that militarism beckons. Dutton will reassume the Defence portfolio, rehabilitate Mike Prigozhin as boss of Home Affairs, instruct the ATO to upgrade Robodebt to macOS Sonoma and direct it against those who complain, and spend his leisure hours classifying people by their propensity to commit crimes.
Mike Prigozhin….love it!
Interesting the golf club I belong to most are battlers with a bit of super, all on age pension all voted NO due to money wasted on our indigenous. No empathy or sense of irony.
Take up another sport Wellsy, and get out of that reprobate company.
It’s the missus who is the golfer these days. After I said I was voting YES they now call me the socialist! Mind you I live in Farrer and the NO vote was expected.
Surely, they would have called a special meeting and cancelled your membership, being called a socialist is merely a slap on the wrist.
To the best of my knowledge I was the only one of a few in our circle of family and friends who voted Yes.
Fear of Treaty and Truth Telling loomed large, plus the poorly executed WA Labor Aboriginal Cultural Heritage Act which was repealed after just three weeks confused many regional folk.
There is an enormous job to do and fortunately most people are not racist, they are just struggling to sort out their own priorities to make their own lives secure and determine is the truth and what are lies.
I for one want to see truth in political adverting which includes social media. Not like our sort of Corruption Commision, not heard anything from them as yet, so maybe I speak to soon, there is nothing like a bit of public spotlight to expose and prevent those all too often little white lies .
Correct. The most vicious and nastily vocal No proponents during the campaign could be found around Strathpine which is smack bang in the bogan end of Dickson. Dutton’s ignoramus storm troopers.
It is worth noting there are those with a clear self-interest in voting Liberal, high income, lots of shares, nice house(s), capital income as opposed to salary and wages. Then there are also those for whom the self interest is ambiguous at best but who possess what in the old days was called a petit-bourgeois mentality, these days might be termed aspirational. They have a self image as “battlers”, usually for their conception of a middle class life. This is combined with a conviction that they deserve what they have, should have more rewards and that others don’t work as hard as them and are ripping them off. The latter could apply to those above them as well as those below but their respect for property, accompanied by their generally lower levels of education, means they are more likely to punch down. Talkback radio is their soundtrack, reinforcing their ignorance, prejudices and grievances.
Traditional Labor seats contain many of them but they are struggling to dominate, they are not fully dominant. The battle of Labor v Liberal in this context is over (a) whose policies will actually help you or advance your values, versus (b) how persuaded you can be to the Liberals comparatively narrow (often irrational) and selfish view of the world. But this mono strategy is where the Liberals are heading, abandoning the upper middle class along the way. When Labor manages to genuinely offer equality of opportunity economic and social policies, and nation building policies generally, the Libs appeal to these personas may not be enough, as has been obvious in Victoria.
The Liberal base tend to be older- over 55 at least, own their homes outright etc, so they are less affected by cost of living pressures than the rest of us mortgage and rent slaves. You can make your income stretch a hell of a lot further when a huge whack of it isn’t putting a roof over your head- especially if you have assets to draw on, like a roof over your head.
Interestingly, studies have found the demographic spending freely in Australia and not tightening their belts at all ( because they don’t need to) are the over-65s. They are largely responsible for any demand driven inflation, apparently.
Must be a nice bubble to live in. You can almost forgive them for assuming everyone’s doing ok because they’re alright, Jack.
In permanent the population over 70 year olds are the fastest growing cohort due to increasing longevity, and stagnation in younger cohorts; many regional electorates the median age is now near retirement age…..
There are lot of well-off people who aren’t well educated. They include John Howard’s “aspirationals” and Tony’s Tradies and Scott Morrison’s favoured demographic of guys who drive Hiluxes, and the “cashed-up bogans” who seem to populate the Sutherland Shire.
True. Menzies would be turning in his grave.
Not sure that he would!
As they say … the medium is the message … and in this case the actual tactics and the scored earth approach is what they continue to employ.
The Voice was always just road kill along the path ahead that is now lit brightly with a map of voting patterns that clearly spell out that political realignment is the only way forward for the modern LNP.
The inner cities and much of the coast will stay teal/green/red but the rest is wide open for the taking. The outer suburbs, regions and rural are fertile ground for the LNP like never before.
Dutton has no intention of fighting on Labor’s turf, he will force Labor to fight on his populist manipulation of the average voter.
And Labor’s got to rise above it. They’ve got to call it out for what it is
Totally agree Northy, however where is the media who is going to listen and report on them? Here in WA we have the West Australian, A tabloid, on “L” plates from instructor Murdoch Media on how to write tabloid sleaze. It now has become catalogue distributor and publicity machine for its Big brother Channel 7, then we get The Australian, which has no real circulation reach, and we know which side of the fence they sit on in the media landscape.
This is forgotten by all, ignoring how our media has become consolidated three way RW cartel, with some other commercial regional networks, along with a fearful and anodyne ABC…. making an uneven playing field.
Do the Libs really think they can win in future without the seats that use to bear their blue-ribbon strongholds? They are close to a high-tide mark in Queensland regionals and outer-urban seats (the natural terrain of a potato), not too much more for them to win there. Their inroads into working-class seats might hit difficulties once the focus shifts to issues like industrial relations.
Well sort of yes, this is the way forward (sic) Libs are choosing. But it looks somewhat crazy. Consider, in Victoria nearly all the outer suburban seats are red and the inner are red teal and green. The regional cities are also mostly red or red leaning. Ballarat and Bendigo did not vote Yes but they came closer than the much more sparsely populated regions. So the Libs are chasing being National party offshoot as per QLD when NSW and SA could both just as easily go on to mirror Victoria. The same dynamics are possible in WA and QLD as well. So there is (always) work to do but the Libs are a long way from mainstream and drifting.
Has any one in the Liberal Party discussed why they are loosing seats? When I was in business it was all about maintaining your existing customer base, and finding like minded customers to keep growing the base. Not trying to reinvent the entire business plan every 4 years.
Hopefully RW MSM, Koch Network outlets, crazy Christian branches and demographic change are not going to stop the Libs from becoming the unelectable QLD LNP, till quite a few older voters and MPs move on…..
While the No voters will not want to hear the results of any investigations into the conduct of the referendum cases, if Labor brings on the enquiry into media and into the need for truth in political advertising, it will not go away, ever.
Given that Price is virtually unmanageable and Mundine’s making another ( probably unsuccessful ) attempt at the Senate or even Scummo’s seat, Dutton is, IMHO, a dead dog.
Mundine is a latter day Billy Hughes, he’s tried to get into parliament with Labor, Lib Democrat nutters and Libs, failed three times. What next?, the Nationals? Or Blak Sovereignty Party? Just keep on ranting Mundine, like you were on Sunday. Backed the winning side then ranting like a loser.
His many appearances on The Drum were mesmerisingly horrible. Incoherent ranting, obsessive talk of himself and his “businesses” (What apart from that huge fund to make a Sky doco on indigenous business ffs). Best revealing moment for me was the episode when he misheard a young disabled guest from Qld and bullied all over shouting her down. Class all the way. I doubt he will ever make it into parlt whereas Sen Price is genuineley dangerous.
Mundine seems genuinely confused. And the Libs will never give him that Senate seat now that he has served his purpose.
He has withdrawn from the Senate race because he said he wanted a treaty. He’s bad news for the LNP.
Labor won’t do either. Labor are as fond of their lies as the Coalition are of theirs. They proved that by refusing to push the truth in political advertising legislation through before the Voice referendum and their secret little meeting with Lachie.
Ah, the irony of Wazza Mundine running for ScoMo’s seat of Cook!
If this happened it would demonstrate the sheer incompetence of our political system, both sides have make captains pick, and it has spectacularly failed on too many occasions.
However the irony of Mundine knocking on doors in Cook, is a spicy thought, I think the first thing he would do would be to change the name of the electorate, Would Crikey run a poll on popular choices of new names for the electorate of Cook?