Recent road tragedies have focused more attention on an issue that has been becoming apparent for some time — Australia’s long history of a diminishing road toll has gone into reverse.
In the most recent data from the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics, deaths in the year to November were up 6.3% on the year to November 2022. That was on top of a 5% increase from 2021.
The Australian Automobile Association has long been calling for much better sharing of important road accident data by the states and territories, a call backed by the Australian Medical Association. A recent meeting of federal and state transport ministers deferred action on the issue into next year.
Data on the nature, location, timing and victims of crashes is crucial to curbing the road toll. Knowing how many are attributable to poor infrastructure, conditions and driver behaviour — and how the three combine — enables policymakers to know where to focus.
It also puts things in context. For example, the road toll has increased this year, but so has the population. Deaths per 100,000 population rose “only” 3.9% in the year to November, not 6.3%. The November 2023 rate is only slightly higher than the 2019 rate — but it is unmistakably upward over the past four years.
During that time, the pandemic dramatically affected how much we drive. The road toll dipped in 2020 and 2021, both in numbers of deaths and deaths per 100,000 population. But the fatality rate per 100 million vehicle kilometres travelled, which accounts for changes in volume of driving, stayed the same from 2019 to 2022.
We don’t know the comparable figure for 2023 yet, but if the claims of a rising road toll are right, it should show an uptick even in terms of how much we’re driving.
It’s not a national problem, peculiarly: the rising death toll is in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Smaller numbers make for greater volatility, but in Queensland (which had particularly bad years in 2021 and 2022), Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, the rate per 100,000 population fell in the year to November. Fatality rates also vary hugely between metropolitan, rural and remote areas — though much of that is down to much greater distances people in regional communities drive.
One popular theory is that as SUVs and taxpayer-subsidised large utility vehicles make up a greater proportion of the vehicle population, the danger to other road users increases as well. That’s not yet proving to be the case with pedestrians: pedestrian deaths rose by just 1 (to 163) in the year to November, and that’s below the 2019 level. Deaths of cyclists (again, small numbers = volatility) are also down. Deaths of kids under 16 are also well down. And the big rises in fatalities are happening in low-speed zones — 40 and 50km/h zones, compared to >80km/h roads where fatalities are down.
What the international figures show in terms of deaths per 100 million kilometres is that Australia, like most developed countries, has radically cut its death toll compared not just to 1990 but also to 2000. Australia is typical in moving from a fatality rate of 9.5 per 100 million kilometres travelled in 2000 to 0.6 just a decade later.
Much of that is due to a new generation of safety tech that built on previous basics such as seat belts and random breath testing: airbags, better vehicle structures that keep crash forces out of the cabin, and simple technologies like reversing cameras and sensors that make it less likely you’ll back over someone.
Since 2013, though, the decline has slowed rapidly: from 0.6 to around 0.5 in 2022. That’s right on the OECD median.
Some countries have cut their rate further since then: Norway has gone from 0.4 to 0.2. Lithuania has gone from 2.5 to below 1. Iceland from 0.5 to 0.2. The US, in contrast, actually saw a rise from 0.7 per 100 million kilometres travelled to 0.9 in 2021, in line with the fact that America is an increasingly unhealthy place to live.
For drivers and their families in NSW, Victoria and South Australia, it’s more than about statistics: there’s been a substantial rise in fatalities this year — with, inevitably and sadly, more to come this month. The more data we get, and faster, the sooner we can work out what else to do to resume the downward trajectory of crash deaths.
The lack of any significant increase in the plain number of pedestrian casualities is no evidence that the risk has not changed. You must at least take into account any change in the number of pedestrians and where they are. If the roads became so terrifying for pedestrians that nobody would walk near a road any more the number of pedestrain road casualties would drop to zero, but that would not prove that roads are safe for pedestrians. Cycling helmet laws in Australia reduced cycling injuries mostly by reducing cycling.
Anyway, Keane is right to keep pointing to the ‘volatility’ of small sample numbers. It is really pointless to try to read much significance into small variations over time in small data sets. Just for the fun of it, a few minutes ago I used a random number generator to distribute 100 ‘events’ randomly between 6 ‘states’ A to F of some imaginary federation. The result was A=13, B=27, C=12, D=16, E=13 and F=19. If these were road fatalities for the year there would of course be horror and panic about State B and its appalling record in comparison to other states. But these numbers were generated entirely randomly; the actual ‘risk’ of a fatality in each state was precisely the same.
We need a break down of road deaths by a wider range of stats. For example, how many are elderly people driving automatic’s, how any are young people driving stolen cars, by age and vehicle type, how many are singe vehicle accidents etc. What is the age, driving status (type of licence and length of driving experience). Maybe there is a PhD., in this for some bright student, provided the police force of Australia actually collect all the relevant stats.
As a pedestrian I have noticed that car drivers seem to have very little patience.
They cannot wait for a pedestrian to cross the road, so they rush past as soon as they can. They even drive through red lights for turning traffic.
Running red lights is epidemic here too. Some of them are not even close to catching the lights. But we don’t have red light cameras to capture them.
Also as a public transport user, I have a sense that fewer people are using public transport, and thus there are more cars on the road.
I am surprised that there hasn’t been an increase in pedestrian fatalities.
Yep, and Stop signs too; like roundabouts with pedestrians, too many drivers, at best slow down and roll through but not stopping, leading to a ‘Mexican standoff’.
In Germany it’s six months cancellation of your licence while locally we must respect car drivers, because….?.
According to this, the fines for rolling through a stop sign can range from EUR10 to EUR85 and 1 penalty point.
https://driveegermany.com/stop-sign-in-germany-rules-and-penalties/
In Australia this will run you (depending on the state) around $350-500 in fines and 3 points.
Rising population, more road users but the roads haven’t changed to accommodate the increased numbers. More people in general = more crowding, which leads to stress and aggression. More aggressive behaviour on city roads is becoming a thing.
Plus, Australian drivers, especially city drivers, have a terrible attitude. They seem to regard other road users as competition, intruders, something to “beat”. It starts with mum or dad teaching their kids to drive. “Now remember, every other driver is an idiot” they say. And there it starts.
Watching Australians trying to drive on snow and ice is also an example of how little control most people have over their cars. The brake is the only thing they know to use.
No, as much of the growth in population has been temporary churnover e.g. students with low levels of car ownership vs. growth in vehicles in permanent population, beyond growth rates.
However, there maybe something about attitude from Australian media led culture and research in France showed another factor causing accidents, presumably amongst male drivers, machismo or aggression.
Ah, road deaths. Lots of attention, rightly so. But, we also maim. We deliver life changing injuries both physical and psychological. They get way less attention, in fact seldom get referred to. We need to also consider those impacts, not just the dead.