In roughly a month, Tasmania will make Australia’s contribution to the biggest year for democracy in history, when its 415,000 voters head to the polls in one of Australia’s most distinctive and contradictory polities.
Jeremy Rockliff, the last remaining Liberal leader in Australia, called an early election this month after a pronounced period of chaos that threatens to end the party’s longest run of success in the history of the state.
Personalities
The structure began to quake last July, when Bass MP Lara Alexander and Lyons MP John Tucker resigned from the Liberal Party over disagreements with the way the state government had handled the proposed $715 million AFL stadium and other infrastructure projects. This sent the Liberals into the configuration that every government wants to avoid: minority.
If that wasn’t enough, in October, then attorney-general Elise Archer stepped down from the party after news of a probe into bullying allegations against her, which she denies, and then a series of texts she had allegedly sent were published in The Australian. This could have led to an even earlier election if Archer had, as she briefly considered, stayed in Parliament as an independent. Rockliff wrote her a letter demanding she clarify her intentions and Archer stood down, before lodging a formal complaint with Tasmania’s director of public prosecutions alleging the premier breached the state’s criminal code by attempting to “threaten and intimidate” a sitting MP into leaving Parliament.
The fun and games looked set to continue, when Archer announced she was running as an indie, but she swiftly withdrew. She wasn’t the only high-profile woman threatening to return and haunt her old party — former speaker Sue Hickey, whose axing from the Liberal ticket kicked off the last early election Tasmania had in 2021, is running as an independent in Clark.
Both Hickey and Archer have slammed Tasmania’s Liberals as hostile to strong-willed women. No doubt both will feel no small amount of vindication at the make-up of the Liberals candidates for this election — they’ve selected only 13 women among the 35 people vying for office this time around and one of the remaining blokes is none other than former federal senator and mischievous crypt keeper Eric Abetz.
One of Hickey’s last acts in Parliament was to use privilege to air vile comments Abetz had allegedly made about former Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins (allegations he denies). Then premier Peter Gutwein publicly backed Hickey, despite their recent falling out. Rockliff, generally considered a moderate, has obviously made (or been forced to make) a different calculus.
The Tortoise and the Hare-Clark
What makes this knot of contradictions and personalities even more febrile is Tasmania’s Hare-Clark voting system, which divides the state into five electoral divisions that each return five members through proportional representation.
This has, for the last quarter of a century, meant that the difference between a “landslide” — winning three out of the five seats in each of the five electorates — and minority government is only three seats. And a huge amount depends on where the vote falls — a minuscule shift in the vote can change everything, and a big swing can cost almost nothing.
The Libs received 51% of the statewide vote in 2018 and out-polled the ALP by nearly 20% in 2021, and in both cases still just scraped to a majority. Psephologist Kevin Bonham points out that majorities have been formed with as little as 44.79% of the vote and haven’t been achieved with as much as 47.68%.
Adding yet another level of complication is that the Parliament has opted to return to the pre-1998 allocation of 35 seats — the initial reduction was aimed at reducing the influence of Greens and independents. Bonham has said that on current numbers, the change won’t greatly impact the Liberals’ chances of forming a majority government.
Issues
As the double resignation last year made clear, the handling of the AFL stadium is going to be a big issue. In a state where gun control is always a live issue, both the majors have said they will overrule a police edict that would end the exemption from licensing, registration and storage requirements enjoyed by antique gun owners. Perennials like a troubled health system and housing are sure to come up on the campaign trail. One unspoken issue is the impact of gambling thanks to the practical state capture at the hands of gambling interests.
Correction: A previous version of this article said Elise Archer was running in this election as an independent candidate. It has been updated to reflect the fact that she has withdrawn.
Exactly. Why is this this unspoken? Presumably because it is too obvious to need saying, it is just taken for granted. All the attention to the wonders of the Clark-Dawe voting system (or whatever it is), and the fun and games with candidates switching parties and so on, is ultimately irrelevant; just details and distraction. To adapt the old slogan, no matter who you vote for, the gambling industry runs the state.
The ALP was very badly burnt last election when they had a policy of getting rid of poker machines except in casinos. The machinations of the gambling industry had to be experienced to be believed. Certainly they constitute the de facto government. Of the 5 representatives in my electorate I can only name Rebecca White, and I am neither illiterate or apathetic.
There’s no shame in not knowing the names of the Lib members, I promise you. One from under the bootheels of Erica Bets, and one from the back paddock of some isolated farm. (Mod – please remove if my comment is defamatory).
Both the Tasmanian LP and Labor are bereft of ideas. The functional literacy of many Tasmanians is shockingly low. Many Tasmanians also have health issues. There is severe inequality across the state. The pollies from both sides of the aisle are more concerned with pandering to business interests (read donors) than actually doing something about the failing healthcare system and low literacy. Few of the pollies bother to engage with their constituents. Many Tasmanians are more interested in getting a footy stadium than getting their kids properly educated or seeing improvements in the healthcare system. The pollies are in it for self-interest. This election will not change anything.
Geez, you make it sound like we mirror Australia as a whole. What a concept.
…[the Libs]’ve selected only 13 women among the 35 people vying for office this time around and one of the remaining blokes is none other than former federal senator and mischievous crypt keeper Eric Abetz.
It’s 2024. Not sure whether to laugh or cry at the revival attempts of Abetz.
Cry ?
Given the polls today, dumb Tasmanians must have plenty of company on the mainland who choose to vote for Dutton and co.
Just one day after Elise Archer announced she would run as an independent, her nomination was withdrawn.
Yes Jan. I was surprised that Charlie missed that. Nobody seems to know why.
ABC news reported it was due to health issues, and it’s up to you how convincing you find that, and what or who is threatening her health:
But hours later, in a statement, her husband Dale Archer said “a health circumstance has arisen” which would prevent her from being able to continue with her campaign. “She would like to express her sincere thanks to all her supporters who have encouraged her to re-enter public life,” he said. “Elise’s health and wellbeing must take absolute priority at this time. Due to the circumstances I must request the public and media respect our privacy. We will not be making any further comment.”
If you listen to her on air interview with ABC Hobart, there is good reason to think she had, or was having, a stroke. So the health issues reasoning makes sense.