The electorate of Dunkley in Melbourne’s southeast has swapped hands between the major parties several times since its creation in 1984, but had been held by the Liberals for 23 years until the late Peta Murphy, with the help of a redistribution, defied Scott Morrison’s miraculous 2019 victory to take the seat off Chris Crewther. Murphy then consolidated Labor’s hold in 2022 as part of the general swing against the Liberals.
All of this makes this weekend’s by-election genuinely hard to predict. With the narrative building that it could be hugely consequential for both party leaders, let’s break down some of the rhetoric of the campaign.
What they say about their chances
While neither can quite agree on what history tells us to expect on Saturday, the party leaders have a sort of unity ticket in what they mean.
“In his address to caucus on Tuesday, [Prime Minister Anthony] Albanese noted that since 1983, the average swing against governments in government-held seats in by-elections was 7.1%.” (Via the Financial Review)
“Addressing his own party, [Opposition leader Peter] Dutton pointed out that no first-term government had lost one of its seats in a by-election since World War II, and the swing against governments in all by-elections has been 3.6% on average, and just 1.5% for first-term governments”. (Via The Saturday Paper)
What they mean: “If we win, it will be a major achievement that endorses my every move as leader. If we lose, it’s no big deal because everything was against us.”
What they say about Advance’s campaign
Right-wing campaigners Advance have gone hard in Dunkley, pushing a campaign around last year’s decision by Australia’s High Court that indefinite immigration detention is unlawful and the subsequent release of asylum seekers; whom Advance call “rapists, paedophiles and murderers”.
What Albanese says: “It’s an example of where you see the bloke who’s trying to smile more and be a little bit nice and less nasty [having] the nasty stuff being run by the Advance campaign, so he can just run the little-bit-nasty stuff.”
What he means: “Advance has already ruined my first term once, I’ll be damned if they do it again”.
What Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy says: “They’re not part of our campaign and I have never met them, but it’s a free country and they can have their say.”
What he means: “Is this kind of thing enough to get people to say I’ve ‘distanced‘ myself from them? I’m not going to actually criticise a group that’s spending more trying to get me elected than my party is.”
What they say about the tax cuts
What Albanese says: “We hope to get a good result in the Dunkley by-election, and everyone in Dunkley will know that we wanted every single taxpayer in Dunkley to get a tax cut.”
What Labor’s candidate Jodie Belyea says: “Easing the cost of living is my number one priority. Labor is working to help, that’s why from July 1 we’re delivering tax cuts for every taxpayer.”
What they mean: “Dear God all this “Liar-bility” stuff had better pay off …”
What they say about each other
What Liberal Party ads say: “Albanese has broken his promises.”
What it means: “I hope no one remembers we supported the biggest broken promise.”
What Labor ads say: “[Conroy is] Peter Dutton’s handpicked candidate”.
What it means: “I hope everyone remembers just how much they hate Peter Dutton in Victoria.”
Ho Hum! 2 big parties…
Who are the other parties standing? Any potential Teals? We need change, not the policies of the 2 big parties. The Climate will not wait.
Yep couldn’t give a rat’s for the puppet cartel. I want to know who’s actually trying to upset the rotten apple cart.
Until she passed, just before Christmas 2023, from cancer, our Federal member Peta Murphy was respected by all, loved by many, and did an excellent job for Dunkley. She is missed by us all. My condolences, again, to her family.
This has been an UGLY campaign. It’s all been about who can get away with the most lies. And NOBODY has mentioned the lying rodent and GST, even though the old bastard has been wheeled out in desperation. Again.
A thought.
If Peta had not passed away, we would not be in this situation.
If she had been a Senator, she would just be replaced with another party member. 1975 notwithstanding.
If this election was being held after July 1 this year, the entire debate would be different, because the reality of the S3 changes would have arrived. For most of us, not just the elite.
So. Considering that this by-election is not going to cause a change of government, let’s just cut the crap, stop the lies and bullshit, get the election over-and-done, and move on.
There are Important things to do, and worrying about who of two poor choices is our pm is not on the list.
Everyone who actually matters is working hard to ensure that none of the important things get on the table.
We all have to live with what happens, as we see it or dislike it. But, what is wrong with Australia that so many listen to an uncivilised idiot in Dutton, with supporting faroff chorus from fascist freaky fools who are greedy, shortsighted, negative? The stink of Morrison has barely faded.
We’re a bunch of stupid colonials doing stupid colonial sht; that’s what’s wrong with Australia. So much so, that our defining characteristic is our ability to piss everything away at light speed.
Check out the insane independent Advance is saying to put ahead of Labor. His name is Darren Bergwerf and he is completely off his rocker
Bergwerf? Sounds like a euphemism for a Cooker’s fart
oh he is a cooker
I’m serious , he is a committed cooker https://www.darren4dunkley.com/
Insanity? That’s business as usual, Labor and LNP-style.
Create huge problems: deny responsibility: promise to fix them: make them worse. Vote for them. That’s insanity! It explains why we’re all working for the banks, in a dying environment.
Most problems are not the government’s fault, especially within the first two years. This independent is a sovereign citizen that is obsessed with attacking LGBTQIA families and pretending to run a shadow council. Crikey covered him last year https://uat.crikey.com.au/2023/01/12/sovereign-citizen-protest-frankston-melbourne-local-council/
So potential for him to be a guest star pooh? Say it fast.
Jeez priv, calling him insane is a bit harsh. He sounds like half the tradies I know. That’s the problem. What Darren highlights is that there are lots of loose ends in society, take flouride for example, where fear and ignorance can amplify conspiracy. What’s the truth about flouride..the whole truth? Does anyone know?
At the crux of it are 2 supermarket chains that represent everything that’s winding up Darren. Surveillance capitalism, profit before people, screwing farmers, screwing workers, to get those big ROIs for sociopathic investors. All the corps do it.
Darren might be the next Pauline. We’ll see.
Oh that’s just a snippet. The tradies I know are not nearly as anti LGBTQIA as Bergwerf and certainly don’t believe in shadow councils or candidates declaring elections invalid and appointing themselves the winner.
I’m just about ready for a different flavour of insanity, if that’s the only change on offer… Maybe crazed n4zis are easier to overthrow than corporate henchmen?
Only if you’re straight White man
Look at the runs on the board…
The N4zis did pretty well for themselves for a few years, until the rest of us realised what a threat they were and joined forces to finally crush them. Barely a peep since.
The corporate overlords have gone from strength to strength, with only a tiny fraction of us ever realising how the threat they pose dwarfs the spectre of racism, which is merely one tool in a whole kit used by the ruling class.
The good people of Dunkley have eight candidates to choose from. Top to the bottom on the ballot they are Liberal, Animal Justice, Libertarian Victorian Socialists, Independent (Sovereign Citizen – see Privileged Starvation’s comments), Greens, Australian Democrats, Labor.
So, after preferences are counted, either Liberal or Labor will win this.
The LNP need to win 19 seats to govern in their own right after the next general election. There is nothing to suggest they’ll win back any Teal seats, and I’m guessing they won’t win seats from the Greens. The Liberals strategy is to win middle and outer metropolitan seats from Labor. To win 19 seats they’ll need an even swing of about 6.3% To do that they have to win seats just like Dunkley, which just happens to have a margin of 6.3%. So, this is a test of the LNP’s overall stategey and whether Advance’s (controversial) costly advertisng and social media strategy works.
And there are complicating issues. Byelections are an opportunity to give an incumbent government a kick in the pants. We’re in the worst cost of living crisis since the early nineties recession; there is a housing affordability crisis; and there have been 13 interest rate rises in a row. In the normal scheme of things, the Libs should win without campaigning, but …
In Victoria Peter Dutton couldn’t win a chook raffle holding every ticket and the Liberal candidate is also the pro-development local mayor favouring the building of not entirely popular multi-storey near the Frankston foreshore.
Other interesting factors are the Dunkley demographics skew Anglo-Celtic for an outer metro area. The Liberals and especially Dutton managed to alienate many Chinese-Australians before the last election. Has Dutton’s recent robust support of Israel alienated the Islamic community?
If the Liberals don’t win or make significant inroads in Dunkley, their entire election strategy for 2025 looks suspect and Dutton would be damaged. If Labor lose it will damage morale and there’d be some deep thinking to be done. A loss of more than one percent would damge Albo.
A welcome analysis. So, more of the same. Metro voters tend to minimise climate problems, imo, prioritising local issues – not enough pedestrian underpasses to cope with the highrises, etc. But anywhere with ‘Dunk’ in the name should keep a wary eye on the ocean.
It’s a real shame we don’t have another local based Monique Ryan or Kylea Tink style teal to vote for.
All of who we have are either same-old same-old or a variation on crazy.
The paddy has a heap of advertising posters around, plus the support of “advance” (who wear their white hoods in private), so it’s going to be an interesting result.
I hope the Labor lady wins, so that spud gets another kicking, but time will tell.
The polling booths are not fun places
I’m not surprised the polling places aren’t pleasant. Lib and Lab are playing for sheep stations and the cooker’s cohort are known for being anti-social at local government meetings. I don’t have the get up and go, but if you do, Simon Holmes a Court and the Climate 200 mob will sling a quid to any independent that has a genuine grass roots movement behind them and is also genuine about climate change action. The Carrum area is particularly at risk of sea level rise and the whole electorate faces the bay, so maybe there is enough interest?
However, you do have the issues that drastic points out above.
I started subscribing to Crikey because they break real stories and/because they’re independent, and Guy Rundle, and Maeve McGregor (D:), and because it’s where FDotM came from.
I kept subscribing because of the people who read Crikey. The folks here putting in the effort to contribute such low-entropy information, and paying for the privilege, deserve so much better than this poxy ghetto of a third-rate commenting system. We deserve somewhere like this.
bbs(dot)boingboing(dot)net/t/tom-the-dancing-bug-the-embryos-shall-inherit-the-earth/269098
Not a damn Facebook page, or subReddit, or any of that crap which tries to herd you off a proper browser into their godawful app. A proper forum site. Given the status which Crikey deserves in the media landscape, its supporters are going to be capable of some of the most informed discussion of current events, and this should be where it’s AT for actual Australian journalism and sensible discussion.
But instead of a proper town square with all the amenities, we’re camped by the rubbish tip, dodging the robot decorum cop, because some of the most sensible people around who’ve gathered to chat can’t muster a full time moderator.
Anyway, all that to say, great post, Pig Iron Bob. You make a lot of them, and put our cramped, ephemeral, low-rent, slapdash surroundings to absolute shame.
Remember when commenting was shut down for a fortnight because ‘site upgrades’ and this resulted in no. visible. change?
Remember that? It felt like somebody was taking the piss.