What was claimed
Australia has 2.7 million visa holders in the country in addition to the national population of 27 million.
Our verdict
False. The majority of the 2.7 million visa holders are included in the 27 million population figure.
An Australian senator has claimed there are 2.7 million visa holders in Australia in addition to the official population count of 27 million.
The claim is false. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has confirmed that the majority of Australia’s visa holders are included in the 27 million figure.
One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts made the claim in an X (formerly Twitter) post on January 30. Sharing a screenshot of a January 24 ABC News Instagram post about Australia’s population hitting 27 million, Roberts wrote: “Bigger Australia — what does the 27 million milestone mean for you?”.
Following a claim that it represented increased housing and living costs, more traffic and more job competition, he continued: “… And this doesn’t include the 2.7 million visa holders in Australia …”
Roberts concluded his post with: “We need net zero immigration until housing and infrastructure can catch up”.
When asked to clarify the claim about visa holders, a representative for Roberts directed AAP FactCheck to the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population clock.
“This is essentially a combination of natural population increase and net overseas migration (NOM),” the representative said.
He said it was “the senator’s understanding” that the 2.7 million temporary and visitor visa holders are not included. This is incorrect.
The ABS population clock is calculated by using what is called the estimated resident population (ERP) as its base. This is calculated quarterly, with the most recent published figures for the quarter ending June 30, 2023. The clock then projects the population by adding/subtracting to the ERP average birth/death rates and average rates for those leaving/arriving in Australia. As this archived link shows, the clock ticked past 27 million on January 24.
In calculating the ERP, the ABS includes various sources of data, including births, deaths and overseas migration. To calculate overseas migration, the ABS receives data on the number and types of visas from the Department of Home Affairs.
However, the type of visa does not determine whether someone is included in the ERP. Instead, this is calculated using what is called the 12/16 rule — that is, a person is added to the ERP if they have been, or are expected to be, in Australia for 12 months or more over a 16-month period.
So while Roberts is correct that there are around 2.7 million temporary visa holders — there were 2.76 million on December 31, 2023 (see table, cell V28) — they are not automatically excluded from the ERP.
In fact, the ABS told AAP FactCheck the majority would be included.
While the type of visa does not determine inclusion in the population count, reasonable assumptions can be made about their status, the ABS said.
For example, many of the 547,075 student visas (see table, cell V20) in Australia as of December 31 would be for students staying to complete a three-year-plus degree and therefore would be included under the 12/16 rule.
The “special category” is the largest and contains New Zealand citizens in Australia under the subclass 444 visa. This visa enables New Zealanders to remain in Australia indefinitely, so it would be expected the vast majority of the 701,868 (cell V19), as counted in December 2023, will have been living here for many years — and therefore also included under the 12/16 rule.
The ABS told AAP FactCheck that the group likely to have the largest contribution to those not included in the ERP are the visitor visa holders, as those on a visitor visa can only stay in the country for three months. Visitor visas numbered 601,051 in December 2023 (cell V21). This was the highest quarterly total since before the pandemic.
While some visitor visa holders may transfer to another visa, it would be reasonable to expect the majority to be in Australia for a short stay and therefore not included in the ERP, the ABS said.
The ABS said the visitor visa group would likely be the only group where the majority are not counted in the ERP.
The verdict
The claim that Australia has 2.7 million visa holders in the country in addition to the national population of 27 million is false.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics told AAP FactCheck that, due to the statistical calculations it uses, the majority of Australia’s visa holders — 2.76 million people at the end of 2023 — are included in the population count.
False — The claim is inaccurate.
I know I have posted about this before but any article on Malcom Roberts always reminds me.
I live in Canberra and had a friend visiting who had never been here before. We spent a morning touring Parliament House and then travelled down Capital Hill and across the so-called Parliamentary triangle to the High Court which was in full session. It was during the days of the S.44 disqualifications and the case before the full bench that afternoon was that of Malcolm Roberts.
I listened carefully to his evidence as did my friend. Neither of us could tell you what his claims were. I have never heard gobbledegook spoken so fluently. I do not know how the justices kept straight faces – my friend and I had to struggle not to laugh out loud in court. We did not stay long. But it sure was a memorable event.
The bloke’s finished an Engineering degree he’s clearly not stupid.
So his misdirection and misinformation must therefore be considered and deliberate.
A question for Tom Wark – by ‘visa holders’ do you mean only holders of visas that are not permanent visas? You do say ‘temporary’ in the article, once at least, but then you refer to NZers. Non-permanent visas means all temporary visas and all bridging visas. Any idea how many Australian residents are permanent visa holders? Everyone is welcome as far as I am concerned bit I have an interest in the exclusion of long term residents from citizenship by visa systems being so slow. Deliberately slow I suspect.
One can appreciate that Crikey wishes to correct the record (unlike much of Oz’s uninterested media). In line with the headline Man Bites Dog, perhaps publish on the rare occasions that Senator Roberts is accurate.
@zut alors – great idea how ever don’t hold your breath….. as I’m not sure your suggestion fits with Crikeys political persuasions.
Why am I surprised at bull*it being spoken about the migration program??? Most of what you read about the program and what the government says is only half true. For example, the skills shortage. There is no skills shortage of people to do low paid difficult work, there is just a skill shortage of people to do the work at the rate of pay on offer. If wages were to rise, we would all be picking fruit and looking after old folks.
Reflects gross ignorance and submerged bigotry of ageing skip MPs, elites and media who channel SPA’s imported and fossil fueled agitprop of Tanton Network; eugenics for proxy white Oz.
Sacrilege !
Next thing you’ll be suggesting a ready supply of foreigners ready to do the work for the rate of pay on offer is why it’s not increasing !
Even more sacrilege. How dare we let market forces work in favour of workers.
For shame^^
What ‘market forces’?
Not everything is about ‘market forced’z
Whatever ‘market forces’ we’d like to imagine exist there are in fact this number of people.
Get used to it.
You either didn’t get the joke, or are very ignorant of basic economics.
I’m going to go with the former.
Yes most of what the government says is half true because it has to appeal to people like you!
How do you know how many skilled workers there are?
How do you know anything about the population or needs of an entire continent?
What do you reckon – should we have a population of 26m or 27m?
Is it just entire continents that you use strong views about populations or do you also worry about pubs or cinemas or trains being overcrowded?
Here’s a theory – businesses must let more people than their capacity allow because of money?
My pub might only have capacity for 50 people but why not wedge a few hundred in. You know for $$$.
Utterly bizarre.
Maldinis, what do you mean by people like me? How do you know who or what I am?
I suggest you stop sneering and rephrase whatever it is you wanted to say so it makes sense.
Yes, people like you.
You’re a ‘people counter’.
You worry about entire continents or planets being overrun by people.
Governments can’t be honest about the realities of dealing with ageing populations and growing populations because people like you will freak out.
So governments have to make unrealistic promises about population numbers and fail to prepare for the actual numbers.
Howard maintained we’d hit 25m by 2050. Ooops.
Better to be attached to reality than the fantasy that you could eg: double the number of people overnight with no negative consequences.
A reality denied the existence of actual people??
That was my one response to you.
Goodbye.
Nobody denies the existence of people.
Like most of your “arguments”, it is a straw man, entirely within your head.
We are already at more than 25 million, so Howard’s (reported) prediction would appear to have been correct.
Yes he said we’d hit that number by 2050 so he was 25 years out and the population is set to hit about 40m by 2050 so that’s the number we need to plan for.
But governments can’t be honest so will keep telling people they have it under control as evidenced by their mistreatment of refugees.
As @drsmithy has also pointed out, this population number is not a fait accompli. It’s a choice. It’s a choice that we the people have no say in because we have had no public debate on the Big Australia policy. No party has taken policy to an election – more the opposite; the topic has been avoided.
ABS population projections are here: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/population-projections-australia/2022-base-2071
Their ‘middle of the road’ prediction in 1999 was 25M by 2051, 28M was the ‘high growth’ model.
As the instigator of high population growth policy in the 2000s, Howard would absolutely know that 25M in 2050 was completely unrealistic.
About 75% of population growth comes from immigration, so in reality we are in complete control over how much, and how quickly, it increases. ABS high growth projection is currently 38M in 2050, with an assumed NOM of 275k/yr. Low growth is 32.5M in 2050, with assumed NOM of 175k (still very high in historical terms).
I have been called a lot of things, many of them true, but I have never been damned as a people counter before. Ouch! If I freak out, I will do it in private to not annoy you.
I’m nothing if not original!
Governments aren’t honest because they while big business and federal Treasury love high population growth for juicing GDP, the rest of use have to suffer the consequences of not being able to provide adequate infrastructure to support such high growth. Affordable housing, hospitals without over-crowding or ramping. Roads that aren’t full all the time. Public Transport that isn’t failing all the time due to weather conditions.
The fact that he uses X to make his claims says a lot.
No, he’s not related to me.