In times past, normal times, back when the United States was sane, the reelection of Donald Trump would be a political impossibility, not merely for the crimes, corruption, treachery and scandals linked to the former president but the sheer overwhelming vigour of the US economy.
Unemployment has been below 4% for two years — the longest low unemployment streak since the 1960s. Inflation has fallen to 3.1%. Real wages growth has been increasing for two years, with nominal wage growth still above 5%; nearly 60% of American workers had a real wage increase over the last twelve months. Economic growth is 3.2%.
Bidenomics — a combination of old-fashioned industry policy linked to climate policy and the strategic goal of incapacitating China in key technology areas — has delivered for ordinary American workers.
None of that appears to matter, however, now that Biden and Trump have locked down their respective parties’ nominations. The two men are tied in polling, or Trump has a small lead, nationally, and Trump has a bigger advantage in important swing states that will determine the presidential election in November. Biden’s age, and his increasingly frequent verbal slips, has been a relentless focus of the US media, even as Trump’s own memory lapses, slurred words and confusion have prompted questions about cognitive decline.
Even on this issue, though, Trump has an advantage. He may only be three years younger than Biden, but articulacy and rationality are not necessary for his campaign. While friends and foes alike are saying Biden has failed to sell the achievements of Bidenomics and he needs to take ownership of them — that is, the president must effectively identify the evidence for and articulate the outcomes for ordinary Americans of his economic policies — Trump doesn’t need to articulate any coherent policy. His policy is himself; his mere existence is a policy platform. His inarticulacy, his confusion, his meandering statements, his predispositions to wild attacks and self-evident falsehoods — all are irrelevant to his supporters. They possibly endear him further.
When Trump describes his plans for a national missile shield as “they calmly walk to us, and ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding … They’ve only got 17 seconds to figure this whole thing out. Boom. OK. Missile launch. Whoosh. Boom”, it does nothing to damage his credibility among his supporters. For the man who correctly boasted he could murder someone and people would still support him, incoherent speech is neither here nor there.
If we’re not already there, then a Trump success in November would mark the point at which the US electorate, aided by an enabling media, has resolved the issue of lack of economic certainty in favour of permanent anger, grievance, outrage and tribalism, over actually improving certainty through better, more secure jobs and higher wages.
Trump, and his media enablers like Fox News, have no interest in providing greater certainty — quite the opposite. They want voters ever angrier, ever more outraged, ever more resentful, about what they perceive as the unfairness meted out to them and the lavish benefits that they believe those they despise — Black people, liberals, women, elites, the “woke” — receive.
Needless to say, uncertainty is also Trump’s gift to the rest of the world. For policymakers elsewhere in other countries, the real chance, perhaps even probability, that Trump could return to the White House represents colossal uncertainty, even for conservatives. Trump promises a disastrous trade war, the abandonment of Ukraine and the embrace of Putin, the possibility of a US withdrawal from NATO, and the breach of agreements made with the previous administration, such as AUKUS. For a smaller, open economy that relies on a rules-based international order, however flawed, and a working global trade system, Trump represents a particular threat to Australia even before we get to the risk to the AUKUS project.
Trump, and his supporters, and the once-respected Republican Party — in which conservatives fought the good fight to drive out, and keep out, right-wing extremists — don’t have to puzzle over such rational policy concerns, relying on evidence and logic to determine what are the best outcomes. Their tools are tribalism, resentment, and division. For the rest of us, who are stranded in a world where actions have consequences and logic can’t be waved away, Trump isn’t a nightmare merely for progressives but also for anyone who values certainty. Ding, ding, ding. Boom. Whoosh.
The risk to AUKUS is the ONLY up-side in all of this. We could do something more useful with $368 billion-half a trillion dollars. The rest of it is as bad as Bernard says, and the Duttonist LNP and the Moloch media would have no compunction about emulating Trumpism down here if they can. Some features of the US political-electoral system are not transferable to Oz, but we still have the Moloch media which is a real and present threat to democracy. Politicians who pretend otherwise do so at their future peril.
I agree to a certain extent, but Australia doesn’t harbor the resentment that comes from being dethroned as the world’s only superpower.
Half trillion? We all know the way this works. We’ll be up around the trillion mark by the end of this. ‘Stupid’ doesn’t begin to cover it!
Mals Snowy venture is the template..
If AUKUS is dumped, we could buy the more suitable, smarter, smaller,cheaper Swedish Dortland diesel subs which are capable of penetrating the defenses of their nuclear aircraft carriers, sinking them and leaving the field undetected.
This is all so stupid! The rest of the world, whether they’re talking about it or not, is developing small, armed drone subs which can lay at the bottom of the sea until activated and guided where necessary. I have no direct knowledge of this, but one doesn’t need to be a genius to know it’s happening.
We could buy the cheap Ukrainian sea drones which have cleared the Black sea of Russian ships.
Are they still usable after taking out a Russian navy ship?
Drones come relatively cheap, ‘Sinking Ship’
whereas HMAS Sydney lost a crew of 645 for a negligible “gain”
Australia is currently developing its own drone submarine technology. Knowing how our military makes purchase decisions it is sadly likely that all this technology will head to overseas markets rather than being purchased by our own government.
My principle worry about these drones, is their potential for capture. For with A1, surely this will not prove to be too difficult.
Yeah, maybe. If we cancelled the sub deal that’s not even set in stone yet, we’d have an awful lot of billions to develop enough world class drone subs we could both sell and keep to use both defensively and offensively to actually make a difference to protect this continent. Unlike the eight or so (very) old school, dead in the water nuclear subs we’re intending to purchase.
um already happened : looked at the Pesutto deals and the 6 lobby firns buying up our public assets mate – and the zero competition in our so called free trade environment ? Its all a scam and both parties are at it – even the Greens put the rights of blokes above that of biological women – they are also blind to real need – but biological women only have to rise up and say stop it fellas But the few are too timid to deal with the disgusting misogyny abounding in all camps
Blokes, biological women, trans women… quite the hierarchy they’ve got there!
So… what is someone with severe AIS (Androgen Insensitivity Syndrome) other than genetically male, even though they have a body that externally looks female?
Add intersex people to this list.
The culture warriors just can’t get their heads around this. All they see is binary. It appears to me as attempting a political gain at the expense of some of our most vulnerable Australians.
Trans women are not “blokes” but you knew that, didn’t you?
What “rights” are being taken from CIS women?
You’d do much better trying to save the women killed by their male partner or ex-partner at a rate of more than 1 a week.. a rate THAT DOESN’T change. This is a REAL tragedy, unlike the fake one you presented.
It’s stunning to see how accurate Richard Rorty was when he predicted this in lectures he gave nearly 30 years ago, published as Achieving Our Country in 1998. He had no knowledge of the impact of anti-social media, but even so he wrote about how the super-wealthy would ensure politics becomes an endless distraction of culture wars; the left would abandon or ignore the working class, obsess over identity issues and become hopelessly split on whether it supports global free movement or not; working people in the USA, unionised or unskilled, would see their government actively driving down their wages and exporting their jobs; the same workers would also see the white-collar middle classes getting increasingly desperate about down-sizing and openly hostile to paying taxes for anyone else’s social benefits.
‘At that point, something will crack. The non-suburban electorate will decide that the system has failed and start looking around for a strongman to vote for — someone wiling to assure them that, once he is elected, the smug bureaucrats, tricky lawyers, overpaid bond salesmen, and postmodernist professors will no longer be calling the shots.’
Rorty said it was then likely that all the gains made in the past 40 years by women, anyone of colour, anyone gay and other minorities would be wiped out. All the sadism and contempt they used to face would be restored, as an outlet for all the resentment. Meanwhile, the populist strongman ‘will be a disaster for the country and the world.’ People will wonder why there was so little resistance, and only the rightists gained. ‘Why could not the Left channel the mounting rage of the newly dispossessed?’
Never heard of this guy. Bummer he’s been dead for 17 years… I wonder if he had anything as prophetic to say this century?
I’m not surprised you haven’t heard of anyone Kimmo.
Yeah thanks for that super helpful contribution, sport
Very prominent American philosopher.
Thanks for sharing SSR. Rorty is indeed prescient. There is always going to be a section of society that feels ignored, and that their needs are not considered. When that section gets too big, you run the risk of getting a Trump. They just want to blow the everything up, and who can blame them.
‘Why could not the Left channel the mounting rage of the newly dispossessed?’ Because by then it is too late. The dispossessed are lifting the cobbles and making the Molotov cocktails. The trick is to prevent the number of the dispossessed reaching critical mass by keeping the gap between the haves and the have-nots from growing too wide. It might be too late for the USA to do that, but it isn’t too late for us.
Gotta agree Pig I, but I think it is too late for our Labor Party, and people hate the Greens.
Fair comment Paul, but you’d hope as a growing number of people wish “a pox on both their houses” (Labor and the LNP) and find the Greens either too distracted by minor issues, too impractical, or too “holier-than-thou”, that they vote for solid centrist independents. People like Dai Le (Fowler) Andrew Wilke (Clark) Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo) and the Teals. People who’ve had a successful career outside of politics and come into the parliament without being beholden to pre-selectors and toeing the party line. People who are their to do someting positive for their electorates and the people of Austrlaia, not play the “game of mates” the major parties play.
Note I have not read this.
I am with Mr Keane here of not throwing the baby out with the bath water. Biden has been good for unions. The organisations that are “woke’.
It’s not a choice between supporting human and civil rights and workers rights. Precisely because workers rights are human and civil rights. Along with housing. Freedom from racism and other ism’s the right loves to use to divide. That whole rules based order that formed the United Nations and rejected the politics of the far right Trump is embracing.
Remember that every time you hear cries against the woke. That definition of being aware of injustice is a very core worker value.
That’s the distraction as a threat to democracy
Remember the anit woke love to “own the Libs”
See how US RW MSM obsesses over Biden’s age including memes heard locally vs. ‘fair & balanced’ by averting people’s gaze from a clearly ageing Trump, and his own supporters’ and institutions’ behaviour.
‘Woke’ is just another sociocultural dog whistle that encourages ageing voters to ‘maintain the rage’ (John Howard & Gough Whitlam) and not accept anything apt for the 21stC vs. return to the 1950s or even the 19thC; master servant relationships and corruopt nativist authoritarianism.
See Atlas – Koch linked Heritage, with Christian support, for Project 2025 https://www.project2025.org/
Yes this is the aim but Biden has been successful in getting unions working better. Other than climate change another “left woke” issue his most important contribution.
It’s a long uphill fight for unions in The US but Biden has changed things for the better.
Remember Trump has not won yet and these arguments wee made when the Red Wave was predicted in the Midterms.
Bannon has been quite clear
Hugging the man murdering innocents ! Very lacking
Thats the extremism that has engulfed the US.
Trump is worse for innocents than Biden.
Rorty said it was then likely that all the gains made in the past 40 years by women, anyone of colour, anyone gay and other minorities would be wiped out.
Then he is an idiot by any objective measure.
Better then to be the Rorty variety of idiot than the totally delusional fallacious idiot you are.
Roe vs Wade, attacks on Trans people… police shooting black people…
I’d be careful about carelessly throwing around the “idiot” moniker.
The critical point is HOW, the very wealthy ensure the endless distraction of culture wars, Drew has references that are useful but the bottom line is control of media outlets, controlling the narrative.
As commenters we could be looking for ways to break up this massive power imbalance.
Yes, the enthusiasm of very right-wing billionaires to own and control various media with no concern about making very large losses, in other words not as any sort of conventional business, tells its own story. While in Australia we are all too familiar with Rupert and his minions, and Kerry Stokes there are many more in the Anglosphere.
Sheldon Adelson has bought many established local newspapers in the USA. Paul Marshall, who was one of the financiers who inflicted Brexit on the UK, runs the channel GB News at a huge loss, and it allows him to broadcast far-right propaganda while simultaneously handing huge wads of cash to Tory politicians for their ‘journalism’. (Bizarrely, the UK regulator Ofcom refuses to do anything about GB News because, says Ofcom, it is not a news channel; apparently, once your news is sufficiently biased and full of lies, you are off the hook, because regulation is only for good quality news.) And so on. They not only stoke up public rage but they use their influence to bully, persuade or bribe politicians to follow the path that suits their agenda. Equally important are the tech giants and their antisocial media platforms, although it is not always clear they encourage rage for ideological reasons. Some might do it just because it makes heaps of money, as proper neoliberals that’s all that matters, and they are wealthy enough to stand back and watch the carnage with indifference about the outcome.
Yes except women already are treated as the enemy – Jk Rowling – a victim of domestic violence and a brilliant creative – dismissed for DARING to suggest rights need to be balanced ; why do the rights of a marginalised few take oriority over the legal safeguards and autonomy and dignity of women and girls ? It again a case of hatred of older women and or seasoned women by a zealotry of blame – burn em witches – we want to blame and coerce you ladies for the dregs of power and control
JK Rowling a “brilliant creative”? Well.. that’s your opinion. I find her stuff pedestrian and boring. Give me Robyn Hobb (Megan Lindholme), Ursula Le Guin or Sheri S. Tepper any day over J.K. Rowling.
Oh… and Sheri S. Tepper put her ideas into practice by being the director of one of the branches Planned Parenthood for more than 20 years. This is REAL dedication to women’s issues, rather than a bogus culture war. RIP Ms Tepper and thanks for all the great reads….
Australia needs to rethink its policies on all fronts, going forward.
Trumps America can not be relied upon to honour ANZUS, AUKUS or any military promises. American bases in Australia will be closed unless we pay for them. We need to come up with a Defence and Trade Policy which can exist without Trumps America.
I can only hope that beyond the public statements, Canberra bureaucrats are being tasked with contingency modelling.
Har har har har har….
Good joke. We only do “short term” here.
We could sell Pine Gap and North West Cape to the Chinese!
Perhaps just add them to the Giles/Robb Darwin Port contract.
thanks Bernard for your usual succinct appriasal of what further Trumpism might look like. Dreadful! However, I’ve been saying for a long time, that the silver lining might be that he would scrap the AUKUS deal. that would be a blessing for us!
The whole “we could buy cheaper subs to protect us” assumes that any sub is of use or actually does protect anything. Like our tanks. Or the eye-wateringly expensive fighter jets we buy for the military to play with. The ADF represents an astonishingly expensive vanity project useful, on the evidence, only for neo-colonial bullying of various brown folks. If the Ben Roberts-Smith activities qualify as useful. Operating death squads in Afghanistan allowed Howard to posture as a warrior and pi**ed a fortune up against a wall to no good effect. I still ponder the weird ASPI logic of treating China a sa threat while the seas are crowded with shipping taking minerals to China and crap back from China. The subs are to protect our trade with China from……..??????
Gr1fting is on the modbot’s list.
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Sifn’t a whole new military paradigm based on large numbers of cheap autonomous vehicles is emerging before our eyes.
Don’t they have highly paid military analysts to point out this obvious stuff?
…I guess there isn’t nearly as much scope for gr1fting with that gear.
No.. they have obscenely paid private industry “consultants” who tell them what they want to hear.
In this world, the confident liar gets the top jobs. They’re rarely competent. The world belongs to the confident liar.
We’re totally screwed.