With Donald Trump and Joe Biden still neck and neck in national polling, and Trump leading in key states like Arizona, Michigan and Georgia, the return of Trump to the presidency continues to be a substantial possibility, even probability.
While disastrous for American progressives, Trump’s return to the White House would represent the greatest opportunity in generations for those who want to see greater distance between Australia and the United States — whether of the anti-American left, advocates for a more independent Australian foreign policy or those opposed to specific elements of the US-Australia relationship, such as AUKUS.
A second Trump presidency would harm America’s international image in ways comparable to the presidency of George W. Bush. Bush accomplished the improbable alchemy of transforming the global sentiment in US favour in the wake of 9/11 into global notoriety via the historic disaster of the Iraq invasion, which cost hundreds of thousands of Iraqi lives, and the lies about weapons of mass destruction — along with minor issues like widespread use of torture and repeated killings of civilians via drone strikes. They led to a massive collapse in favourable views of the United States in Europe and Australia.
But Trump will go far beyond Bush in other areas. If Bush was seen as tainted by the stolen 2000 election in Florida, Trump’s treachery, authoritarianism, encouragement of insurrection, criminality and peddling of hate place him in a unique category of posing a direct threat to US democracy, especially given his commitment to acting as a dictator, taking revenge on perceived enemies from his first presidency and jailing political opponents.
Trump is also unique among post-war American presidents in his attitude toward allies. Not only does he seem to view dictators more favourably than allies, but he has openly stated he is prepared to break alliance commitments, particularly in relation to NATO — complementing his pro-Russian stance.
For the anti-American left, the return of Trump will confirm many of the tropes of its portrayal of the US: a dysfunctional country run by and for corporate elites and a crazed fundamentalist minority. They will point to a deeply corrupt political system and media that has smoothed the way for the return to power of a man not merely unfit to govern but anti-democratic and dangerous to his own country and the world. Trump will represent not a deviation from the American norm, they will argue, but its unmasking — the revelation of its true form.
While Trump may be distasteful to those who want to see a more independent Australian foreign policy, the kind pursued by Paul Keating or advocated by Malcolm Fraser, his greater significance for them lies in his hostility towards allies and his eagerness to disrupt global norms. With his commitment to launching a far bigger trade war than the one he waged against China and Europe between 2017 and 2021 — one the Biden administration has in many areas carried on — Trump represents a serious threat to the interests of any medium-sized trading power like Australia that relies on relative international order and global economic growth.
Worse, as a US ally, Australia is potentially in the firing line of Trump’s foreign policy and can have no certainty that his administration will meet its commitments or obligations to us. Advocates for greater independence can argue that it is not Australia that is moving away from the US, but the latter which has turned its back on Australia through Trump’s truculence and antipathy toward allies.
That applies doubly so in relation to AUKUS. There is already considerable risk that the US will not be able to fulfil its commitments regarding the provision of nuclear-powered submarines due to workforce and budget constraints. Trump is less likely to feel impeded by agreements, especially with a rusted-on ally like Australia, than traditional or mainstream presidents, if he decides the US can’t afford AUKUS.
But the greater threat from Trump to AUKUS lies in his possible embrace of it, and if he clearly states what AUKUS is really about, which is the subordination of Australian sovereignty to the American strategy to militarily contain China. Our government is naturally reluctant to say this aloud, as its predecessor was. That accounts for the almost bizarre silence from Labor, especially gormless Defence Minister Richard Marles, about the entire point of AUKUS versus either the original conventional submarine deal, which had been underway for several years before being scrapped, or the cheaper and more sovereignty-friendly option of French nuclear submarines.
Once Trump brings AUKUS into his more bluntly Sinophobic worldview, there’s a clear risk that AUKUS will become associated with him, undermining it in the eyes of Australians. To this end, it’s been interesting to watch the reaction to US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell saying the quiet bit loud about AUKUS last week — that its purpose was to bring Australian submarines into a war with China, something the astute Financial Review international editor James Curran nailed on the weekend.
The response from the US lobby has been amusing: Richard Fontaine of the defence contractor, Democrat-aligned defence think tank Center for a New American Security — whose interview with Campbell prompted the remarks — was quickly corraled by the Sinophobes of the Fairfax media to correct the record and tell us that Campbell hadn’t actually said what we’d heard him say. Dubbing Fontaine “one of America’s leading foreign policy thinkers”, Fairfax told us he thinks there’d been a “naive reaction” (the words of the journalist concerned) to Campbell letting the cat out of the bag, and that Campbell was merely saying “submarines could be relevant in a variety of contingencies”.
In fact, Campbell explicitly said AUKUS would mean submarines “from a number of countries operating in close coordination” could attack (“deliver conventional ordnance from long distances … including in cross-strait circumstances”).
Now, imagine Trump delivering the same message, but in his own particular way. How long will Australian support for the extravagant and implausible AUKUS project last under Trump? It’s enough to give the armchair admirals at Fairfax, and the AUKUS cheer squad, nightmares.
I wasn’t aware that America had allies. Vassals, certainly, but allies, not so much. Further, it is hard to see Mr Trump doing more damage to American international standing than has been achieved by the genocidal Mr Biden. As for democracy, all I can say is, “What democracy?” Americans vote, to be sure, but whoever they vote for they end up with the same imperial killing machine.
Excellent post Griselda!!
A particularly succinct and highly accurate summary of a very depressing situation.
If voting improved people’s lives it would be illegal. No matter how one votes, government always wins.
Basically, whether you vote or not, a government aways wins because a government is always in power. (It’s so obvious a statement that it doesn’t need to be stated unless, of course, you want to infer that only democracy is pointless or more pointless than no democracy).
Given the government always wins regardless of a vote, then, would you rather be able to choose the lesser of two evils (the party of capital or the party of capital funded partly by labour movements with maybe a tiny influence from a party of the environment) or have no choice at all?
Many are so jaded by democracy and its imperfections that they’ll encourage us to do without it. But they never quite get around to suggesting an ideal model to replace it.
No government at all?
Wouldn’t that be wonderful for the environment? Gina and Clive and Rupert and the $billionaire class even more unchecked and free of regulation than they are now.
I am totally in agreement. America wants to dominate and so to does China want to control.
Both countries are playing a dangerous game and every one else is standing by .
The world is on edge and these countries go around chest beating like great apes.
The sensible policy option would be to call Macron with a contrite ‘Nous sommes désolés”, re-order what we had started, and get back to the defense plan that suited Australia’s defense needs, rather the in-support-of-American-forces USUKA deal, which to borrow Trump’s line, was the worst of the century.
The sensible policy option would be to call Macron with a contrite ‘Nous sommes désolés”, re-order what we had started, and get back to the defence plan that suited Australia’s defence needs, rather than the in-support-of-American-forces USUKA deal, which to borrow Trump’s line, was the worst of the century.
Won’t happen though. The Australian population have a constant stream of Americana on their screens, a steady stream of US cultural bombast to their palms, with the latest nonsense culture war nonsense or conspiracy fed to their buds and into brains. The notion of national independence and collaboration with neighbours doesn’t get on the agenda.
The sensible policy option would be to forget about wasting money on submarines.
How many fkn DRONES can you get for the price of one sub
…plus one for Trump?
Probably have large underwater autonomous drones before these subs even get wet.
Hiw many schools, how many hospitals, how much infrastructure..how many houses can be built for ppl living hard..
But no, some submarine has priority and where the fook are the ppl to man them coming from?
Schools, hospitals and infrastructure doesn’t come from the same people providing for defence procurement, so it can be argued that both can be paid for simply by printing more money.
Good point Kimmo, but by printing mone money it will turn out like Argentina where money was printed and held no value.
We are sending AU$ yo employ 1000 Poms
We are sending AU to U S to buy a factory to help employ Yanks.
How does that help us when all we do is unemploy Australians in defence industry ( tax payers here) to help U.K, U.S by sending jobs/ money there?
A sh*t load! And a hell of a lot more effective as a defence strategy, not that our dozy pollies give a damn…
But then there’s the ‘economics of mercenary cost of (hoped for) loyalty’ – ‘tribute’ in ordered arms? …. We’ll just have to wait to see how redeemable that proves – while we poke some dragon, for a higher authority.
Maybe the question is “How many drones can some enemy get for the price of one of our millsto…. subs??
Precisely. Our govts are spending many hundreds of billions on worthless subs in preference to properly housing our population in an affordable fashion. I haven’t heard one valid argument yet in favour of subs and I doubt, as long as both major parties are for it, we will.
Doing anything next week?
Perhaps provide some input into the next Defence Strategic Update. Not to mention some reality.
I was thinking exactly that. Get our own friend back on side, get our independence back to a degree. One small change though – use the French subs’ original design – nuclear. It is a clear necessity for a country like ours. Can’t be popping up every couple of days to run diesel generators!
The Swedish Gotland subs do better than the nukes and conventional diesel electric
Helas, notre cher ami, Emmanuel Jean-Michel has, in a probably vain attempt to hold France’s extreme nationalist Right at bay come the next elections; has rushed to to arm France to the gills. A Napoleonic attempt to take up the war against the godless.
Besides, France has just flogged 6 Naval Group subs to the Netherlands at 1.5 billion Euro (2,5 AUD) a pop. Quite an improvement on Australia’s “special deal”, n’est pas?
What Australian sovereignty? what the TPP doesn’t undermine, AUKUS does.
Even if we don’t get the impoverishing submarines, we’re still on track to get all the nuclear waste the US and the UK (and, if I hear today’s news aright, Japan) can dump on us.
Just because someone is against AUKUS does not mean they are anti-American. What we want is Australia to stop being the USA’s puppy that barks on command. We want Australia to find its own regional voice, not be the mindless parrot of a foreign nation.
AUKUS in itself is dangerous as it hands over much of what’s left our sovereignty to the USA and through the USA, the UK. If only Australian politicians would stop suckling.
I am personally tired of the U.S using Australia as it’s personal domain..How much of Australia is locked out ” because” U.S calls it it’s own territory ( and) now this stupid Government is giving i over a port in W.A solely for U.S and U.K nuclear subs to base themselves.
I do no want Austrslia to become a vasssl State to U.S forces, I will not sing star spangled banner as my anthem.
Is not the Second World War where the U.S took over the country.
This persistent acceptance of the ‘reality’ of a 2nd Trump presidency is Orwellian. Have sucficient Americans lost their minds to vote for viscous criminal, liar and proven idiot?
Biden or Trump…either way it is a no win/ win situation.
But after all if your expectations are high on Americans being sane enough to vote for a alternative/ younger more articulate representative then not likely.
Democratic primary voters in 2016 had an opportunity, unprecedented in modern times, to upset the apple cart good and proper. If they’d managed to get Bernie nominated in spite of the DNC’s dirty tricks, Americans would have had the starkest imaginable contrast between their options…
A tiny bit of overlap perhaps, but beyond both of them being old, white and male, virtually any further similarity would’ve been purely illusory; a genuine, heartfelt, reasoned policy on Bernie’s behalf, would be matched against a tokenistic populist brainfart of incoherent word salad from Trump. Bernie would’ve crushed that rabid coot by ten points, and gone on to give the lie to decades of anti-socialist (how close is that to antisocial) propaganda.
We came *this close* to escaping the darkest timeline, dammit
Sadly, absolutely true Kimmo. And I’d love to see your reference to evangelicals become common usage ..`demented barbarians’.
Democrats have no illusions about Biden. Republicans have only illusions about Trump. You may have noticed that Trump doesn’t do rambling Castro-like speeches at rallies any more; he does heavily edited videos – such as that cracker about the “bible” he’s selling. He’s numerically younger than Biden and the Pope but is observably struggling with his years more than they are.
Yep, criticism recently by the RW Bulwark on how the corporate RW MSM runs protection for Trump e.g. it does not present his incoherent ramblings, but give their own English verbal summary which masks some clear decline in Trump’s linguistic abilities (allegations of early dementia signs)….
False equivalence, like how many LNP & RW MSM types avoid calling out Trump, but focus obsessively on Biden-Dems; gives Trump-GOP a free pass.
Biden or Trump?
Yes, the grass is always greener on the other side. But if Trump gets in there won’t be another side.
Maybe. We will find out soon. It appears possible that sufficient Americans have lost their marbles.
Lead n the water mate…
I’m not even kidding. Almost all states haven’t bothered to get rid of lead in their water pipes unlike the rest of the world. There’s just no profit in it…
Sadly, the Electoral College system means a majority may not want Trump, but they could well get him anyway because of the disillusioned rust-belt states. When the smallest state, with about 200,000 people has the same sway as California with double our population, you know its not truly Democracy. Amercia is broken.
Tough! For a hundred years they’ve lording over the rest of the world, stating they have the greatest democracy in the world. I think they’re so indoctrinated they still believe it LOL. ‘Land of the free’ and all that BS. Yeah, free for the wealthy 1% to rule over the rest. Now we know they have one of the worst and least equal democracies. No wonder their society is screwed up. And no one seems to want to do anything about it. I agree, America is broken.
Americans I have known state that USA is a republic and not a democracy. I guess in the way Athens was a republic with only the elite males voting
Agree, clearly US MSM and Oz following, do Trump many favours e.g. rewriting his incoherent speeches into clearer English or disappearing him, while focusing endlessly on Biden ‘he’s old’ and the Dems are ‘woke’ etc.; hear both rusted older low info ALP and LNP repeating same….
What the article ignores is how many of the US and global (faux anti-imperialist) left especially ‘tankies’, adopt and use the same anti-Ukraine talking points as Trump, Fox News etc. and the Kremlin, while Netanyahu-Hamas has left many confused.
Why the congruence on these geo-political issues between many Trump supporters and the left, when many of the right are both Islamophobic and anti-semitic?