Earlier this week, Australians were polled on their view on a Indigenous Voice to Parliament.
The poll — the first since draft wording on the proposal was presented to Indigenous leaders in July at the Garma festival — was conducted by research company Resolve Strategic on behalf of the Nine newspapers and showed a decent majority of 64% in favour.
If this pans out, it would be enough to achieve the double majority — a majority of votes in the majority of states and a majority nationwide in favour of a constitutional amendment — required for a referendum to pass.
Of course, there’s a long way to go, and lingering questions on the details (or so everyone who could just explain what the proposal contains keeps telling us … ). But does this give us an indication of the public support the proposal could expect when put to a referendum?
The decade or so leading up to the plebiscite on marriage equality in 2017 had seen a steady increase in public support for the change. In July 2017, 63% of respondents to an Essential poll said they believed same-sex couples should be allowed to marry, 25% said they should not be allowed to marry, and 12% did not know. This skewed reasonably close to the final outcome in November that year: 61.6% yes, 38.4% no.
But things don’t always follow the polling that directly — the final Newspoll on whether Australia should become a republic in the lead-up to the 1999 referendum gave the yes vote a minor lead of 51%. It failed to achieve a majority in any state or territory except, of course, the leftie nerds of the ACT.
The Voice proposal faces similar arguments to many of those put forward by opponents to change back then — that the change is the preserve of out-of-touch “elites” who are hopelessly divided on what the change ought to achieve. Advocates for the Voice will be hoping it’s not quite so effective this time.
Will a referendum on a Voice to Parliament pass and show up the naysayers? Let us know your thoughts by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
On the republic referendum, we need to remember that the question on which we had to decide in referendum was not “whether Australia should become a republic”, it was “whether Australia should adopt this particular model of a republic”. So the Newspoll and the referendum were asking different questions. As we know, Howard deliberately set up the process to fail by presenting a question that he knew would split the republican vote. So it was not a simple matter of the polls “getting it wrong”.
Some people seem to think we should have been deceived as to the type of republic we would get so we would vote “Yes” and later it would be too late.
This public type poll is a bit like the Russian inspired referendum in eastern Ukraine. You must answer “is good”!
Once more details of the so called voice are released and discussed I can’t see the Australian Constitution being amended to accommodate this idea.
How do you know about the integrity of the Russian poll- are you an expert or inanely parroting something you read in the mainstream media?
98%! Obviously the same people who run Russian elections.
Deep down people are fed up with Aboriginals being the main focus of our country’s political conversation to the neglect of the rest of society’s population. the publicly financed media has a disproportionate focus on this subculture of modern Australia- The ABC,SBS,NTV – devote more time to the Aboriginal tribes – rebranded First Nations than any other group.
I think the polls have been doctored as to date I have only spoken to 1 person who is thinking of voting Yes .- The reality is that in the privacy of the polling booth the recent migrants and the working classes will vote No – but no one will speak out because they would be howled down by the media and labelled racist despite the fact we have repeatedly been told
One Man One vote – remember that any change in perceived power of voting system is called a Gerrymander.
We are looking down the biggest Gerrymander in Australian history
I think the polls have been doctored as to date I have only spoken to 1 person who is thinking of voting Yes.
Being a leftie nerd of the ACT, everyone I have spoken to is thinking of voting YES.
Yes but that is the ACT – not really an Australian State. It has the trappings of Statehood but less population than a capital City – It is really deserves to be a Local Government Council . It itself is a gerrymander giving its public servant natives enhanced representation so no wonder the natives of the ACT would vote Yes – it will give them another department and therefore more jobs- at the expense of the rest of Australia.
This working class boomer is in favour of a Voice to Parliament. But, I am a woman so perhaps I don’t get one vote if we are going by your standard.
Desmond I can agree with you for all the wrong reasons. It was devised as a substitute to a Treaty so as not to face up to the realities of history and atrocities foisted on indiginous Australians.. A compromise to drag a few more wavering racist white Aussies over the line.
Get real TREATY – YES!!!!!!!
Make a genuine attempt to rite the wrongs through genuine reconciliation.
I have a problem with looking backward- we can’t make past wrongs better all we can do is make sure they don’t recur – The aboriginals of today are not the aboriginals of the past , the caucasians of today are not the caucasians of the past . Most of present population are migrants who came for a better life here so have no guilt about the past and the descendants of the aboriginals have not had any memory of the past other than the stories , half of them doctored that are we are being told – bit like false memory syndrome. Even eyewitness testimony is not flawless – let alone memories that serve a purpose.
A lot of people said something similar at the time of the SSM postal vote: “Nobody at my bowlo or golf club is going to vote Yes so the polls must be wrong”.
Only 48.5% of the electorate chose to return a YES (62% of the 80% of mail-out returned so, depending on where the ‘bowlo/golf club’ was that may well have been accurate.
As noted elsewhere by another poster, because it was NOT done by the AEC but the ABS, it is possible to see how each postcode responded.
Quite a few had ‘NO’s in the 60-70% range, eg in Sydney this was Parramatta – 61.6%, Fowler – 63.7%,Werriwa – 63.7%, McMahon – 64.9%, Watson – 69.6%, Blaxland – 73.9%.
I’m unfamiliar with the demographics of Melbourne but would assume that the confessional/belief cohort voting would be similar.
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2017/November/Australian_Marriage_Law_Postal_Survey_map
It failed to achieve a majority in any state or territory except, of course, the leftie nerds of the ACT.
Some days being a Ken Behren is a source of real pride.
Despite the 64% in favour the referendum is already in big trouble and quite unnecessarily so. Albanese is proposing a referendum to give approval in principle and to work out the details later. That will deter a lot of voters. It is also unconstitutional (section 128 – …the proposed law shall be submitted …to the electors…). If that was not enough senior aboriginal figures are actively opposing it though I cannot understand their logic.
Somebody needs to take proper charge of this or it will fail.