The Conservative Party’s method to replace Liz Truss will be somewhat shorter than its process to replace Boris Johnson: MPs nominating for the leadership will need at least 100 supporters within the parliamentary party, before a ballot to knock out all but the final two, if needed. The Tory membership will then have its say in an online ballot to be completed next Friday.
Having saddled the parliamentary party with the disaster of Liz Truss, there’s no guarantee that the Tory base won’t impose another disaster on MPs. Boris Johnson, after enduring a Churchillian wilderness of, erm, two months, is said to be considering running.
The return of Johnson would make the UK even more of a laughing stock than it now is after Truss’ record short prime ministership, which ended in shouting, bullying and chaos after she lost control of her party in the Commons earlier this week, never mind the demolition of her tax cut package by new chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
There was, in the end, less to Truss than met the eye. I wrote earlier this week about her return to neoliberalism after the Johnson years of ideological incoherence, but the debacle of her weeks in office was down to what was obvious all along: she was politically maladroit, to an astonishing degree, and her chancellor was even more so. If politics is the art of the possible, for Truss and Kwarteng it became the art of the farcical, with the government of a major economy prepared, seemingly, to spring massive fiscal surprises on financial markets and then profess that all was well amid a financial sector in meltdown.
Truss was there because the Tory membership had chosen her over the more economically orthodox Rishi Sunak. Truss had promised big tax cuts of the kind that appealed to typical Tory members — wealthy provincials, business figures, Colonel Blimp types convinced the country’s gone to the dogs since Disraeli/Churchill/Macmillan/Thatcher stopped running the show — and promptly delivered them under the guise of stimulating growth, heedless of either the electoral or financial impacts.
That divide between the Tory membership and the parliamentary party, which preferred Sunak by a significant margin, is one of many within the Conservative Party: between Brexiteers and Remainers, between traditional Tories and Thatcherite neoliberals, between heartland Tories and new, post-2019 MPs holding former Labour seats. And on top of all was Johnson’s default nationalist settings of large government, “levelling up” and low immigration.
The product of all those splits is a political party without any clear idea of itself, one unmoored even from the early years of its current term in office. Theresa May called for a leader who can unite the party, but there is no such figure, especially given the state of inflation and budget deficit in the UK. The Tories have been split asunder by the nativism, resentment of neoliberalism and hostility to expertise that they sought to exploit as have other right-wing parties around the world.
Truss will become a historical footnote, a trivia night question, but her party and its incomprehension of what it actually stands for will limp on under new, or perhaps old, management to electoral defeat sooner or later.
By golly there are many similarities between the UK rabble and their Australian LNP Circus
Look at what the LNP have to look forward to. Unlikely they’ll ever be in majority government again.
I’ve heard that before. Hubris comes before a fall.
The GOP in the US are probably worse – I shudder to think where they may drag us if Trump staggers back.
But according to news reports the GOP will be in command of the House if not the Senate as well! Haven’t the Yanks woken up yet or are they really that stupid?
Enough of them probably are.
Just as many “stupids” as we have here per capita no doubt.
They can only “drag us” somewhere because we fall over ourselves to follow them. Same as everyone else. (Well, some follow more or less willingly, others need some ‘convincing’, others still are not asked…)
And we’ve BOTH got the same media influencer.
And the UK – could be a common toxin killing all three countries.
The other anglophone democracies, Canada & Aotearoa, have not, yet, been poisoned.
They’ve both got Lynton Crosby advising them how best to follow the orders of Chairman Rupert.
Granted the LNP are a rabble but Murdoch can make any minor Labor slip up into a ongoing major crisis and make any boneheaded Liberal politician look like Napoleon – at least for long enough to get them elected. One has to wonder then why Albanese is giving Rupert a chance to do just that by persisting with giving tax cuts to the already well off. Truss’s fate is an object lesson as to how well that largess to the top end might be received by punters who are getting shafted on their mortgages,utility costs and by savage cost of living hikes. That discontent easily could be exploited by unscrupulous press barons for the benefit of the LNP and before you know it, you have a landslide win for Dan Tehan PM!
If you look around the world, it is unclear what many conservative parties stand for anymore. It’s all about the culture wars and self interest. Aust, US, UK….
When cultures implode and cease to take themselves seriously they are easy pickings to those on the go.
Rome still had more men under arms than the rest of the then known world but it availed them not a whit as it rotted from within.
The British Empire was so vast that the sun was always at high noon somewhere over the Union flag.
It needlessly entered into an alliance with an already crumbling power, Tzarist Russia, to crush a rising one, Germany, and it was inevitable that Nemesis would always follows hubris such as thinking itself invincible.
The USA spends more than the rest of the world put together on its military, has more foreign bases and a prison population greater than any other country in history, falling life expectancy and lower health & educational standards than any Western country and many developing ones.
It is like one of those lead bottomed dolls, push it and it rebounds.
For the moment.
Your reference to Rome is an interesting point. It rotted from within for a variety of reasons, but a major issue was that their military strength was a weakness. That is because there was no stable system to establish the next ruler – and so the common method was civil war and the ascension of the strongest of the crop.
That is a real issue for current autocracies in Russia and China where the ‘leaders’ do not tolerate discussion of succession let alone establish mechanisms.
They could try adopting the Roman model that delivered the 5 ‘good Caesars’ – adopting a younger successor of established competence at a point during their reign and giving that person a reasonable number of years to cement their position and support.
Actually, the later Roman Empire’s military was mainly Mercenary and had more respect for its military commanders, than the Government/Emperor. Who was actually Emperor, at the end (Western Empire) was pretty irrelevant.
Not quite correct in the case of China that “‘leaders’ do not tolerate discussion of succession let alone establish mechanisms”. China is the closest thing to a Meritocracy that has existed (so far). The Leadership has undertaken years of training in lesser positions with advancement based on performance only. There are any number of suitably qualified individuals to take the reins when the current occupant decides to retire. Those discussions will occur in due course.
Instead of ‘5 good’ they seem intent on beating the “Year of 4 Emperors” AD69.
If one of the dolls fall overboard – I hope they have a life belt.
Not just conservative parties either. The Left are just as guilty as the Right of culture wars and self interest.
Nancy MacLean of ‘Democracy in Chains’ fame, and Jane Mayer of ‘Dark Money’ fame too, would describe their policies as ‘radical right libertarian’ of Koch’s muse James Buchanan; ‘segregation economist’ promoting eugenics that masquerades as grounded economic policy (his views were too extreme for GOP in the past….not anymore).
Oh I dunno. I can detect similar thrusts of policy in virtual perpetuity. Concern for the upper crust is never far from their thoughts.
Conservatives in the Anglosphere resemble their corporate clients – the CEO / Boss Class.
Perhaps some tech companies are well run – maybe even some engineering companies but my experience in finance suggests the sort of right wing clown shows occuring in the UK, USA and Australia are identical to many C-suites.
This is what a rabble of corporate careerists look like when placed under the media spotlight.
Koch’s Atlas Network of think tanks, includes IEA etc. at Tufton St. London, plus Oz think tanks, no prizes for guessing the premier one in Melbourne….
how exciting, it looks like the UK Labour establishment’s strategy of waiting until the opposition is less palatable than them might finally be paying off!
Worked here – don’t frighten the horses with ideas, principles or vision.
Shorten tried that in 2019 ‘Outis’ but the great unwashed let their greed get the better of them
Another standard lie from an apparatchik – like “the Greens wrecked Rudd’s worthless EMS”.
Shorten lost because he believed in nothing and never had an original idea in his life.
He told different people in different places different things according to whatever his minders had poured into his empty head that morning from the focus groups.
He actually had the guts to suggest some real taxation reform, the negative gearing torts, particularly and paid the price of being honest.
He had neither guts nor brains – he spoke by rote, badly, and was not honest – he tried to be deceptive and was found out.
Who knew about radio waves?
More likely the “real taxation reform” suggestion came from Bowen’s office.
Nothing ever emerged from Shorten once the morning briefing tape ran out.
Apart from rote learned zingers, which were anything but
I think it’s unfair to single out Shorten. The entire party seems to stand for not much at all and comes across as lacking conviction. Just think of them ditching their policies and changing course after each lost election. If you believe in something you stick with it. Clearly, the only thing they believe in is whatever wins them an election. Not that I’m unhappy that they won – better them than the Coalition. But it’s a problem if the biggest thing you’ve got going for yourself is that you’re not the Coalition. It’s an incredibly low bar.
Right-wingers like to say that Labor is ‘too left’. But that’s wrong. Labor’s problem isn’t that they’re ‘too left’. It’s that they’re not enough of anything for anyone apart of some rusted ons who’ll defend Labor to the bitter end. But other than this? They’re not extreme enough for right-wing voters and the vested interests and the well offs will take the money thrown at them, thank you very much, but they won’t vote Labor.
I think it’s unfair to single out Shorten. The entire party seems to stand for not much at all and comes across as lacking conviction. Just think of them ditching their policies and changing course after each lost election. If you believe in something you stick with it. Clearly, the only thing they believe in is whatever wins them an election. Not that I’m unhappy that they won – better them than the Coalition. But it’s a problem if the biggest thing you’ve got going for yourself is that you’re not the Coalition. It’s an incredibly low bar.
They basically ran on “Not quite as appalling as the other lot” and still did not beat the LNP – that was done by the Teals & Greens.
Correct. Labor continues to be mostly underwhelming courage avoiders with a pre-determined crumple rate.
To paraphrase a current meme, “spine havers” they are not.
Including tying themselves to irresponsible and unfair tax cuts, and pretending that they will magically gain the courage to drop them later.
Yes, that ‘argument’ so often trotted out by their supporters that they’d be destroyed by Dutton and Murdoch if they did it now but somehow all will be well if they do it shortly before the next election… WTeff?!?
Yes, that ‘argument’ that somehow it’s too dangerous to do it now but it will be fine if they do it shortly before the next election… whatthe…?!?
Someone needs a hug
2019 was a very narrow win for the Libs benefitting from a “new” leader. Bill Shorten came close twice and it’s a bit rough to put all the blame on the greedy voters: he was not a very likable candidate and was not the best possible candidate in 2016 0r 2019.
And their stupidity and gullibility
In view of the toxic mainstream media environment in Australia (looking at you Rupert), it is near impossible to have an adult discussion about many crucial topics, not least taxation and global heating. “Not scaring the horses” might be the only strategy that works for Labor.
Jeremy Corbyn must be rolling in his grave that he missed out on the game of political musical chairs.
More likely in his North Islington organic back garden, gathering the makings of a nourishing soup while his successors sup lees & dregs and the tories bitter herbs & gall.
And when history is written of these past ten or so years the out and out racism of the Tories and of an uninformed and misinformed British voter will be there for all to see
Unless Putin decides to write the last chapter.
If that occurs, blame the West for not minding their own business.
As JFK said:
“Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy— or of a collective death-wish for the world”
Something that the West has clearly failed to learn.
JFK’s remark assumed the Soviets were rational; if, as a friend of mine seems to think, Putin is terminally ill then he hasn’t got much to lose.