It’s US election weeks like this that make Australia’s politics obsessionists (OK, that’s me) wish that we really were the 51st state so we could turn our fascination into impact. Instead, we’re left fishing for takeaway lessons for Australian politics.
Nice guys finish… first
After the seven-year Donald Trump cycle with its politics of nasty (insults and name-calling, dirty tricks, and playing hardball), it looks like people want a bit of the tincture of tenderness (self-deprecation, even vulnerability) in their politicians. A bit of gentle ribbing? Sure. But can the cant. Worked for John Fetterman in Pennsylvania.
In Virginia, one Republican presidential hopeful, Governor Glenn Youngkin, sniffed the breeze as the votes came in, quietly letting it be known he’d apologised to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over his tasteless campaign crack about the assault on her husband, Paul.
That’s bad news for, say, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton who’s built his reputation on being the hard Queensland cop. In the environment of nice, not sure how the “He’s not a monster” pivot is going to work for him.
The war on woke gets whacked
Last year in the US it was all critical race theory in schools, picked up in Australia by some of the conservatives chattering about the national syllabus in the dying days of the recent election campaign. This year, it’s been the moral panic over trans women in sports and drag queen story time.
Offensive as it’s all been, it seems to have cost more votes in America than it won once the Supreme Court abortion ruling brought the culture wars a bit too close to home, particularly for women voters.
Republican presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis claimed victory on Tuesday night like the last soldier in the Philippines jungle with: “Florida is where woke comes to die!” As he tries to widen his base outside sun-belt retirees, expect him to shunt this rhetoric off to his Facebook groups.
Meanwhile, the ever-flexible Trump seems getting ready to turn at least a little bit woke with his pre-election tag of the Florida governor as “Ron DeSanctimonious”.
The kids are alright
With a bit of distance, we can see that Australia’s 2019 election was the last boomers on Facebook posting-about-them-darn-taxes vote. This time, in the US, it’s been gen Z (and younger millennials) on TikTok with their unionising Starbucks takes.
Once low-engagement voters, in the 2020 presidential vote turnout jumped to 50%, up from 39% in 2016. This time, exit polls shows that 18- to 29-year-olds were one in eight voters — and the only age cohort where a majority voted Democratic.
Joe Biden’s people picked the trend: his two major initiatives in the weeks before the election were targeted at mobilising this age group: student-loan waivers and marijuana reform flipped election TikTok from a mocking of old Biden to Dark Brandon fan fiction.
As Crikey has been reporting this week, it’s happening here too, wedging the teals in the process. Here’s a quick lesson for Labor and the Greens: lower the voting age to 16. Do it now.
Hot in the city
Election by election in the US, the ever-growing cities become more heavily Democratic and the declining regions more heavily Republican. This looks like the election where demographic and voting trends crossed: despite all the urging by Fox News, in plenty of states there just aren’t enough voters in the regions to balance out the growing diverse urban centres.
Even the old right-wing ploy of putting the frighteners on country folk about those crime-ridden cities failed to nudge the needle. Looks like crime just doesn’t pay — not electorally, anyway.
Last election marked a similar breakthrough in Australia, with the cities turning red, green and teal, consigning the Liberals and Nationals to far less populated regional Australia. The one exception? Brisbane. Expect the trend to wash over that city sooner rather than later.
Where’s the news?
Traditional media missed the story of the midterm elections. Cast back to early 2021, and you’ll see most of Australia’s political media missed the shift in Australia too. Looks like the voting public are shrugging off the both-sides horserace-style journalism and the News Corp bullying alike. They’re walking past the made-for-media events (like candidate debates), looking elsewhere for news and information to guide their vote.
Parties are responding with a back-to-the-future grassroots organising, outside the gaze of the media.
The once powerful Fox News seems to be running out of puff. Too nasty for the nice. Too old for the young. Too small-town for the cities. Trapped in a declining cable distribution business model. Expect a diminishing network to become increasingly shrill to compensate.
In Victoria right now that’s one US trend that’s already being replicated in the daily pages of the Herald Sun.
Is Australia following the trends in American politics or are we quite capable of blundering around on our own? Let us know by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
The Florida governor is touted as a presidential front runner next elections. He is from the religious right & believes that God is choosing him. Reminiscent of Morrison who was a disastrous mistake.
Florida is rapidly going underwater – why they would vote for god-botherers instead of people who might do something constructive beats me.
Good luck to the wealthy retirees relying on God to keep them afloat and protected from tempest…pray harder..!!
As with politicians that represent them, Floridans (overrepresented by “I’m-all-right-Jack” retirees) probably largely conclude that if X doesn’t lead to Y as planned, then 2X surely must – even if -X is the correct answer.
Last I looked, Brisbane was awash in green. Three new federal MPs, no less.
If they had an electoral system that truly represented the cities, the Republicans would either have to widen their base or be toast. The Democrats need to redouble their efforts to capture State legislatures, which are pivotal to the archaic Constitution.
Yes- The USA’s system is so outdated it’s not fit for the 2ist century. A truly flawed Democracy!! Little prospect of change any time soon!!
Not a democracy But a Republic?
I will always remember the amazement I felt when an American explained to me that she voted Republican because USA was a republic and she did not vote Democrat because the USA was a republic.
Stoopid is as stoopid does…………………
Cutting edge for the 18th century, but that was a loooong time ago..
It’s odd how right-wingers in a hole always respond by redoubling their digging efforts.
slightly off topic – but I was hoping to read somewhere in Crikey, an informed take on Rupert going the thump on Trump in some of his US mastheads
… particularly how long Fox will be allowed to carryon before Rupert forces them to change horses – it would be a joy to watch Tucker’s frown deepen to the point where his forehead implodes and forms a tiny blackhole
We will see where the profit motive takes him.
I suspect he is betting on the coming rise in Betting here in Aus as well as Internationally. That’s just my two-cents opinion.