Don’t expect another Aston-like upset when the federal seat of Fadden votes in Saturday’s byelection, political insiders say.
Queenslander Stuart Robert, tainted by his role in robodebt and other scandals, stepped down from Parliament and sparked the poll, which his Liberal National Party expects to win. Labor expects that outcome too, despite its history-making success in wresting the Victorian seat of Aston from the Liberals earlier this year.
“As if Labor could win Fadden — have you driven around Hope Island?” a Labor source told Crikey. “It’s full of very rich white people. Fadden is not Aston.”
In fact, some insiders are tipping that the swing could result in a greater LNP margin via voters who didn’t like Robert but support the LNP.
Then there’s the apathy factor. Labor volunteers who have knocked doors in the Gold Coast electorate have got the impression that many people weren’t even aware a byelection was on. That was confirmed by the Australian Electoral Commission, which said in a statement on Wednesday morning it was concerned about low voter turnout.
“The early voting numbers we’re seeing are down by approximately 27% based on the same period in 2022 federal election,” commissioner Tom Rogers said.
Robert, who held several ministerial portfolios while in Parliament, has stayed off the campaign trail. Privately, some Liberals have said they’re relieved he’ll be gone from politics, especially after the robodebt royal commission report, released last week, strongly criticised his conduct and rejected some of the evidence he gave.
Labor has spent about $24,500 on ads — a lot less than the LNP by Labor’s estimate — many of which seek to remind voters of Robert’s role in the robodebt scandal. One Labor insider said voters approached by door-knockers generally hadn’t brought up robodebt as a concern, and that cost-of-living issues had been more top of mind.
While Robert has been a no-show, other LNP celebrities have stumped for the party’s candidate, local councillor Cameron Caldwell. Crikey’s spies have spotted Peter Dutton, Karen Andrews, Anne Ruston and even Barnaby Joyce on the Gold Coast in recent weeks.
Caldwell, who has been a councillor for more than a decade, was sold by Dutton at a campaign stop in Runaway Bay late last month as “somebody who is going to be a champion for their local community, somebody who can deliver on the issues and respond to the needs of the local residents”.
“After two budgets, Labor is making it harder for [the people in Fadden] and harder for their small businesses, harder for their local communities, so it’s an opportunity to send the prime minister a very clear message that you’re not happy with the decisions that they’ve made and the cost-of-living pressures that they’re putting on families and small businesses,” Dutton said.
Caldwell managed to beat several opponents for preselection, despite being dumped from a run for the seat of Broadwater in 2012 after of a media hit job alleged he had visited a swingers’ club with his wife three years before.
The same story, which Caldwell partly confirmed at the time, was brought up in a new dirt sheet being circulated ahead of the byelection. Crikey is told the dirt file was being sent around by an anonymous email account “with a lot of numbers in the name”. Labor denied it was behind it.
“These smears are really disappointing but I won’t be distracted by them,” Caldwell told The Courier-Mail last week. “This is something the media sensationalised over a decade ago and was addressed at that time.”
Labor has had some celebrities on the campaign trail too — Anthony Albanese flew up to launch the campaign of Letitia Del Fabbro, and Bill Shorten visited earlier this week.
Del Fabbro, a nurse and Griffith University lecturer, is being sold by Labor as a local nurse and mother who supports more investment in aged care, healthcare and for working parents.
She’ll have to beat the near 11% margin to take the seat from the LNP. When she ran against Robert in last year’s federal election she managed to shave off only about three percentage points from his margin.
“This is not going to be a close one. The vibes are we won’t win,” a Labor source said.
As well as those in Fadden who are unaware of the byelection, ABC RN managed to find residents wandering about who had not heard of robodebt or Robert’s connection to it and who will of course be voting LNP because, well, that’s what you do. In Fadden. Which is apparently in a galaxy far far away.
It’s amazing how we accept the fact that people could be brainwashed in nazi Germany or in North Korea, but not in Australia.
The flaw of this piece’s analysis is the “despite RoboDebt” line.
I think most Australians were only (mildly) upset that it was illegal, but the fundamentals were well supported by the public (hounding welfare recipients, the cruelty aspect), and would be quite attractive to the demographics of Fadden
a bias media full of propaganda – Vote Greens change the ignorance
Heard residents being interviewed on the radio this morning, alternative universe indeed. Scary that these folk hold our country in their hands.
It’s just that the retiree-boomers on the Gold Coast live in the Couriermail-verse
heard of the young liberals? Massaste ? agist bs
Fortunately they don’t. Whatever the outcome the LNP and Labor will spin the result to their best advantage, with no real-world consequences. The only potential impact – Dutton’s standing.
I note that LNP is seeking to conflate Federal and State as they perceive State ALP’s stocks as being in decline (probably true) and leverage weariness with Annastacia Palaszczuk, who has been premier for 8 years and in leadership for 13, rather than highlight Dutton’s ‘appeal’. So even if they get a swing toward LNP, it won’t go unnoticed that the Leader’s role was minor.
I note also there are 13 candidates standing, something that might be expected to get voters a bit more excited, yet the aura of a non-event seems pervasive.
Correction: Annastacia Palaszczuk has been state leader of the ALP since March 2012
vote Greens
Not just Fadden. I’m encountering “this (Roboscandal) is just pointless divisive politics”. I discover that central to our national identity is the belief that the poor brought all this on themselves. Whatever “this” is today.
True. The wealthy are particularly susceptible to the ‘just world’ fallacy, which turns up in various guises.
Some have a religious gloss, such as assuming that God, being good, merciful and benevolent, would not allow bad things to happen to good people; from which it follows that those who are wealthy and privileged are good people, and those who are in the siht are there from their own fault. It’s obviously very comforting and convenient to believe that everybody is getting just what they deserve, and that there is no injustice in the world, and no reason to worry or to do anything to help anyone else. The lengths people will go to cling to this world view in the face of overwhelming contrary evidence is remarkable. There are, for example, those who apparently believe with complete sincerity that if a small child is suffering terribly, and there is no possibility the child has itself done anything to deserve it, then the explanation is that the child was very bad in a previous incarnation.
But this way of thinking does not require any particular belief system, it seems to be part of human psychology. Studies have been done getting people to play games that have been explicitly rigged to favour one of the players, for example, Monopoly with two players, where one player gets twice as much bonus as the other for passing Go each time. The player with the advantage usually wins easily, and usually makes it clear by what they say and do afterwards that they believe they won because they were the better player.
Cognitive biases exploited to the hilt.
The biggest problem with the world is that it’s not in any hierarchical power structure’s interest to foster critical thinking skills.
That’s why I’m an anarchist.
I feel there are many of taxpayers in the mainstream, have become totally ambivalent about our politicians.
Politicians in the main, have little interest in hearing from the average Joe, you unless you make a donation.
What has politics in the land of plenty become? A combination of pork barreling, get rich quick mates, Status quo on lack of competition and vertical growth at the big end of town. Jobs for the faithful in overseas posting, and other lucrative jobs no matter how naughty you have been at home. Shelves full of reports, that sit on minsters shelves in the hope they are forgotten. A change of Government means a whole new set of priorities, and usually a royal commission.
A large number of our ” political elite” have no intention of lending a helping hand to our indigenous population, preferring to divide and trivialize their plight. They understand this is best way of kicking the can down the road, to help out mates in the mining industry.
Good luck taxpayers in Fadden, in working out which “used car” suits your electoral hopes and how it is going to best serve your families and Australia’s needs going forward. The only thing sadder is when you contemplate the Republican alternative that will be forced upon us after the next election.
costing billions all going to middle men who ate the real rorts
Rednecks!
A redneck is a septic term for outdoor stoop labour with sunburn between the hair & collar line.
Not many of those in Fadden.
………..but I reckon the number of banjo-players would be waaaaay above the national average.
Of course most voters in Fadden are amongst the rich in this country so why would they care about those that have lost money due to Robodebt.
The extorted money was the least of it.
Fadden is white-shoe brigade territory. Robert was probably a good fit for that electorate.
But you should not assume they are stupid, just because they were last time.
Andrew, not necessarily stupidity, but very right wing views, same for Sunshine Coast north. I can understand that they will swing back to LNP after demise of Morrison,… progressive ? Nah, 80s/90s version of conservatism, yep. Had recently a conversation with 2 white rich baby boomers from Brisbane recently, and their views on aboriginal rights etc would make your hair stand on end!
That handle is easily in the best 0.1% of possibilities you could’ve chosen for a site like this. Post more.
its pervadive across ages and cultures shockingly racist ignorance and bile is not just coming from cliches
I never said anyone was stupid. For rich White Gold Coast business identities with multiple investment properties, it might be a completely rational choice to vote for Robert, Morrison, Dutton, and whoever the LNP nominates.
But the corruption allegations?
Possibly: 1. la, la, la, not listening 2.but he’s such a nice man 3.but he’s a church-goer with Mr Morrison and 4.NIMBY, no, there must be some mistake. We would never have elected that sort of person here in Fadden. I’d go for 4, with 1 and 2 next joint 2nd.
I think the term notorieties would be better than celebrities. I cannot begin to imagine that any one of those four people could persuade me to vote for the LNP any where, any time – but particularly not after Commissioner Holmes’s report was so damning of the previous member for Fadden.
MJM, I fully agree.
Dutton and the rest are being allowed by the MSM to pass off Robo-debt as no big problem, and Labor’s fault for politicising the result.
They play the victim and they get away with it.
Same as The Voice, they claim they are being racially vilified. It makes me sick.
I struggle to comprehend how the MSM is still relevant, two and a half decades into this century.
People are fkn sheep, no question.
vote Greens
Yeah, but as a member of the reality-based community, the scorned other, what the hell would you know?
They seem to be those who would respond to evidence of unfair profit taking (ie: crorruption) that they might be missing out on. Always a flaw in the thinking of the avaricious. Envy. Should work if the focus group gets it right 🙂
Who said Joh’s Queensland is dead, it lives and breathes in its institutions and therefore in many of its people – narrow minded and backwards from the backwater.
I’ve got a mate in Queensland who complained that the LNP has gone too far to the left! Backwater indeed.
blame Murdoch for buying up fair free media
Not all of us, Tony, I promise!
I don’t mind that the LNP candidate went to a swinger’s club. Makes a nice change from Brother Stuey f…ing the taxpayer.