Tony Abbott’s personal approval rating has collapsed amongst voters and last week’s health debate appears to have played a significant role, a new Essential Research poll shows.
This week’s Essential Report shows a recent spike in support for Labor disappearing, with its 2PP lead softening back to levels of early March at 54-46 (-2%/+2%), on the back of a 2% fall in the primary vote for both sides and a similar rise for the Greens.
Kevin Rudd has failed to lift his approval ratings back to the highs of 2009, but has maintained his approval level with voters since Essential’s previous approval question on 22 February, with a 53%/36% approval/disapproval rating.
Tony Abbott, however, has seen a substantial reversal in approval. While his approval ratings had lifted in February, he has now more than reversed that, with a 33%/50% rating compared to 45%/36% in February.
The fall is across the board, but particularly among Labor voters. In February, Abbott had scored comparatively well with Labor voters, with a 28%/58% rating, but that has sunk to 16%/73%. Coalition voters have also cooled toward Abbott, with a 7% fall and increase in his approval/disapproval numbers. It fell among both male and female voters — Abbott now has the approval of less than one-third of female voters.
But Coalition strategists will be concerned about the significant fall among voters over 50-years-old, where Abbott’s approval fell from around 60% to 40%. Given older voters are far more focused on health issues than younger voters, this suggests Abbott’s poor performance in last week’s health debate may have inflicted some damage on him.
The Government was criticised in the commentariat for giving Abbott, a better debater than the Prime Minister, equal billing with Rudd, but the Government strategy of keeping attention focused on health may well have paid off by putting the spotlight on Abbott’s obstructionism and lack of an alternative plan. Essential found that Labor has an overall advantage of 45-25% on the issue of who will best deliver health care — although Abbott’s personal rating on that question is less dire — Rudd only leads him by 45-29%, perhaps suggesting voters don’t look as negatively on Abbott’s stint as health minister as negatively as Labor would like them to.
Essential also explored how voters felt about the Government’s stimulus package and their overall economic confidence. Voters are less concerned about they or their family losing their jobs than at any time since the GFC, and 54% expect economic conditions to improve, in contrast to only 19% who expect them to worsen.
That confidence has fed through into voters’ views on the stimulus package. While there remains strong support for all elements of the stimulus package except the insulation program (which was the least-liked element of the program back in February as well), more than half of voters now want the Government to address the budget deficit and curb spending, compared to 34% who want to see more support for economic recovery.
After Easter and the school holidays, the political debate will begin to concentrate on economics and the looming Budget. The Government still faces the challenge of curbing spending growth without the sort of savage cuts that might endanger the transition from public-supported to private demand-driven growth. Essential’s poll suggests voters have already made up their minds that the time has come for normal economic management to resume.
It will be up to the Coalition’s revamped economic team of Joe Hockey and Andrew Robb to exploit that.
There is a self-conscious attempt to come up with a ‘fair-and-balanced’ conclusion pointing to a way forward for the Liberals but really the story here is really about the final loss of any hope that the Liberals had of avoiding a rout at the election.
Abbott’s decline is calamitous for them and indicates also that those who were writing off the debate as something that would be forgotten very quickly were wrong. Abbott was massively shown up in that debate and there is now not enough time before the election to win the credibility he needs.
Tony Abbott’s problem in the Great Health Debate was his rudeness. Talking over his opponent, making disparaging personal remarks and raucous laughter are not prime-ministerial attributes. Tony Abbott proved Labor’s point that he is the Liberals’ version of Mark Latham. He avoided that crippling handshake but not the other hallmarks of agression. The debate caused grievous bodily harm to the Iron Monk.
The government does not actually control the economy beyond the taxes raised, I do wish people would get that simple point across.
And the failure of the insulation rate is a giant furphy – if the public don’t understand how incredibly successful it really was they will be negative.
The Essential Report is a weekly political poll conducted by EMC in partnership with the ALP.
Essentially it is a Push Poll – not to be taken seriously by anyone other than Dr Bernard.
@ShepherdMarilyn
“And the failure of the insulation rate is a giant furphy – if the public don’t understand how incredibly successful it really was they will be negative.”
Agree wholeheartedly, the ‘INSIDE STORY” elsewhere on Crikey only confirmed what many of us thought. should be essential reading to all the commentariat (though coming from an academic they’ll probably give it a wide berth.
Essential also confirmed the general feeling (again beyond that of part of the commentariat). Rudd landed the first blow by allowing Abbott to think he was a shoe-in in any debate. People noticed. They noticed Abbott’s manner and lack of substance. And they also noticed his use of spin — when someone trots out the recommnded line once too often, alarm bells sound. And they tolled for Abbott last week.
And while fitness is to be commended, the timing of his time-out for his exercise jaunt will also play into Labor’s hands. What happened to Rudd when he finally took a week or two off during the Xmas recess will come to pass for Abbott now. Over Xmas, Abbott had a field day because the PM was absent from the game — the press lapped him up because he was the only news available. Rudd should us the time to make hay now!