The Conservative Party led by David Cameron have failed to win a majority in their own right in the 2010 UK election, in a poll marred by sit-ins and protests at polling places where people were unable to vote by the time polls had closed at 10pm.
At the time of writing, around 3am UK time, the Conservatives were on target for around 305 seats, with Labour on 250 and the Lib Dems on around 60. The result confounded polling throughout the campaign, which suggested that the Lib Dems were on track to increase their vote towards 28%, up from 20% of the vote.
The result suggests that the UK will be presented with a hung parliament, with the Conservatives having a strong but not overwhelming claim to be offered a chance to form a government.
However, the major problems with voting difficulties have thrown the legitimacy of the poll always shaky into further uncertainty. Though such problems have long been a feature of US elections, which are managed on a municipality by municipality basis, but are unprecedented in the UK, which prides itself on the smooth running of elections.
As early as 10pm, exit polls had suggested that the enormous upheavals created by the televised debates and the rise of the Lib-Dems had not been borne out in the polls. This seemed to be confirmed as results started to come in.
The first important seat to fall was Battersea, which demonstrated a considerable swing to the Conservatives. However other seats that the Tories needed to win, such as City of Durham, and Vale of Clywd, failed to swing with sufficient force, leading to the forecast that the Tories would fall around 20 to 30 seats short of their goal.
However Labour managed to hang onto seats it was wildly expected to lose, such as Bolton North East.
As the night progressed it became clear that the Lib-Dems were not achieving the breakthrough they had hoped, with colourful figure Lembit Opik losing Montgomeryshire, and the party failing to capture Guildford, a key target.
As the number of seats declaring went into three figures, it became clear that the Tories were unlikely to get the 7.5% swing they required to gain a majority in their own right.
At 3am David Cameron’s seat was declared and he spoke to the nation, saying that while there was nothing certain about what might happen, it was clear that Labour had lost its mandate to govern the country, and that the Tories would be committed to the national interest in the days and weeks ahead. Gulp.
And the count continues towards the morning….
Are you sure Labour wasn’t “widely” expected to lose those seats? However, losing a seat wildly would be awesome.
It seems clear that the outcome of the election is almost total limbo. The voting patterns suggest that the electoral verdict is that:
1 Gordon Brown has been rejected by the electorate;
2 David Cameron hasn’t been endorsed – the Tories have won more seats but the swing towards them is far less than the swing away from Labour; and
3 the Lib Dems have no right to claim a place in any coalition government as the swing towards them has been very small, and they’ve lost seats.
The only coalition that could remotely conjure a majority on the floor would be a Tory/Lib Dem government. But given that the Lib Dems want voting reform, which the Tories will not accept, that is doomed. While, a Labour/Lib Dem coalition will not command a majority without the support of all the minor parties, 4 of whom won’t
What about a minority Labour or Tory Government? Each is possible but either way it is unlikely to last even a year, given that Lib Dems will demand voting reform and confronting the UK’s fiscal crisis will require spending cuts and tax rises that neither of the two major parties will agree on, and which will be resisted by the minority regional parties (SNP, Plaid Cymru, Ulster unionists). In fact, any Government proposing such actions would probably lose a no-confidence motion before it could be implemented.
Possibly a labour minority government could go on, but it would be doing so under a leader who probably doesn’t even command the support of his own party, and which is demonstrably tired and unable to set a direction for the future. And how will David Cameron command his own side given his failure to win?
Julian Evans: ‘ the Lib Dems have no right to claim a place in any coalition government as the swing towards them has been very small, and they’ve lost seats.’
I disagree. They had a vicious tabloid scare campaign launched against them in the aftermath of the first debate. That sort of thing sticks. I think they’re a breath of fresh air.
I don’t think it is a question of whether the Lib Dems have a “right” to claim a place in a coalition govt, it is whether either Labour or the Tories are willing to do a deal to secure a majority of votes in the Commons if it comes to that.
Here, the Libs and Nats have remained in coalition federally even though the Nats have steadily lost seats over the years. In Tas, Labor and Greens have done a deal to secure govt. If Labor had refused to deal it could, in theory at least, been a Liberal-Green govt
@Julian Evans and @Campers.
More than simple arithmetic of what it takes to form a working majority, the LibDems so far have got 6.3M (23%) of the vote compared to Lab with 8.0M (29%). This is almost 80% of the Labour vote. So I don’t know how anyone could say they don’t have a strong moral claim on a share of any government.
As in 1974 it is highly unlikely the Conservatives will be able to negotiate a deal with the LibDems even if they wanted to. Conservative almost anywhere in the world find it almost impossible to share power with anyone. And when the combined Lab+LibDem vote is 52% such a coalition would have validity. It is hard to find a similar equation for any Conservative coalition.
So it seems Brown will remain PM (even if some behind the scenes deal is made for his early retirement, he desperately wants to have won the job once in his own right–even if he retires after a year or two).
The questions remain how effective the LibDems can be in negotiating electoral reform given their poorer than expected performance (so far). But Clegg would be nuts if he settled for anything less. And of course that will be the truly momentous outcome from this election not whether David or Gordon or Nick became PM.