The Coalition would win a close election held today in the wake of proposed taxation changes and the federal Budget, according to a special Morgan telephone poll.
The poll — conducted over the last two nights (May 12/13) — found support for the ALP at 36% (down 3.5% in a week), the Liberal-National Coalition at 46% (up 1.5%), the Greens on 11.5% (up 2.5%), Family First at 2% (up 0.5%) and Others on 4.5% (down 1%).
In two-party-preferred terms, the Coalition is on 52% (up 2%) to ALP on 48%.
The poll shows the Budget is seen as ‘average’ (60%) but more likely to make unemployment worse (22%) than reduce jobless queues (13%), and more likely to increase inflation (30%) than decrease it (10%).
This latest poll was taken before Opposition leader Tony Abbott’s Budget reply delivered last night.
And the majority of Australian electors (52%, up 7% in a week) disapprove of Kevin Rudd’s proposed new 40% mining “super profits” tax — 41% (down 6%) approve and 7 % are undecided according to the poll.
Pollster Gary Morgan said the “lukewarm” response to the Budget compared unfavourably to the last “successful” pre-election Budget, Peter Costello’s in 2004. “Although 19% considered the Budget good, and only 11% said it was a bad Budget, this is much less favourable than the Howard Government’s last successful election year federal Budget in May 2004 — which 27% of electors described as a good Budget compared to 12% bad,” he said..
Meanwhile, Rudd’s approval rating continues to plummet, down six points from last week:
However, in the leadership stakes, Rudd remains the preferred ALP leader over Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Rudd stands at 34% in the poll of electors (down 9% since January 13/14), ahead of Gillard (26%, down 1%). Other candidates — Treasurer Wayne Swan (8%, up 3%), Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (8%, up 4%) and Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith (6%, up 3%) — have all increased their support since January.
Interestingly, former opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull (29%, up 13%) is once again preferred as Liberal Party leader equally ahead of Abbott (27%, down 3%) and Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (27%, down 1%). All three candidates are well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (4%, down 2%), Andrew Robb (2%, unchanged) and Christopher Pyne (1%, down 1%).
Amongst Liberal Party voters Abbott (42%, down 7%) is still preferred despite a fall ahead of Hockey (32%, up 8%) and Turnbull (19%, up 6%).
“Former opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull (29%, up 13%) is once again preferred as Liberal Party leader…”
Good. A sign that sanity may be returning.
@ Jillian B
The problem being that although Turnbull may be on the rise with the electorate the same bozos who white-anted him are still sitting on the Coalition benches. Minchin will go but the rest remain circling.
That’s my concern as well. I think Malcolm should probably have come back as an independent, instead of being the Liberal candidate. He could win Wentworth as an independent. There is no one else on his level. We saw that when neither of the major parties could come up with a reasonable candidate in his absence (with the exception of Clr Shayne Mallard as a potential Liberal candidate).
I would have loved to have seen turnbull come back as an independent and he probably should given that the libs have moved so far to the right. Unfortunately his ego and ambition to become prime minister prevents this