Beware the coming climate storm. A moment is approaching when science and markets will collide, but then merge, with chilling consequences for investors who miss the moment, and great excitement for those who are well prepared.
The signs are all around us now. Signs that a storm of climate action will soon rage through the economy, sweeping away denial and, along with it, those companies, politicians, investors and industries that aren’t ready.
Signs such as our past two opposition leaders and prime ministers being removed with climate change a central issue in their downfalls. Signs such as 2008 being the first year when the money invested in new renewable energy generation projects was greater than that invested in new fossil fuel energy generation. Signs such as the past decade being the hottest on record, as of course each decade has been since 1980. Signs such as the first new car company IPO in the US for half a century being a disruptive electric car company.
There is great investment and excitement now in renewables, with more than $100 billion invested in 2008 and the same in 2009, despite the uncertain financial climate. Yet we see growth in coalmines, new coal export facilities and a lack of action in politics in Australia and the US. What is an investor to do with such confusing signals?
Simple. Observe the science, because the science drives everything else.
The facts are now very straightforward on the problem and its causes, as stated by the peak US science body The National Academies of Sciences. It said last month the science of climate change is in the category of those theories that had “been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts”.
So this is not a philosophy or a political viewpoint. These are facts. Smart investors deal in rational analysis, not ideological perspectives or wishful thinking. As US Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan said: “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
So if you believe in facts, you will be understand that science will, in the end, overcome resistance and denial, as argued by Professor Stephan Lewandowsky, from the University of WA: “The laws of physics will relentlessly assert themselves, unswayed by public opinion, political shenanigans, or elections. Ultimately, the laws of physics will speak so loudly that no amount of wishful thinking can prevent them from being heard.”
The reason we can be so confident that this storm, when it hits, will be ferocious and effective at driving change, is by considering what happens when science meets markets. The science dictates that when we act it will now have to be dramatic action.
We know that to avoid catastrophic risk we must keep warming below two degrees and, as a result, this is the target agreed to by governments from US, to China, to India to Australia. If you don’t like political metrics then consider that this is also the target endorsed by hundreds of global corporations from GE to Rio to HSBC.
Acting as late as we are, achieving this target will require us to virtually eliminate CO2 emissions from coal oil and gas within a few decades. This means eliminating whole industries and replacing them, which is where the science meets the market.
Markets are particularly good at challenges such as this, using what Austrian economist Joseph Schumpter called “creative destruction”. Markets are unconcerned about collateral damage and friendly fire. They won’t deliver the change steadily or calmly. Markets don’t play politics and will have no regard for sunk capital or prior commitments.
When we act on climate this will be creative destruction on steroids, with the resulting economic storm wreaking havoc and wiping out companies and whole sectors, while creating tomorrow’s new economy and corporate giants. It will be volatile, chaotic and exciting for investors, with fortunes made and lost based on the quality of judgements.
It’s hard to look at today’s politics and investment strategies and accept this analysis. It’s hard to imagine so many people being so wrong. It was also hard to imagine, in 2007, that the world’s governments would nationalise banks and car companies and spend trillions bailing out the financial system. It was hard to imagine, in the US in 1940, that the coming four years would see military spending go from 1.6% to 37% of GDP and that government would take over and direct the economy, with actions suich as banning the production of private vehicles. In hindsight, though, such things are always obvious. And with the benefit of hindsight in 10 years’ time, the coming climate storm will have been obvious as well.
There is only question you have to ask yourself when you see the signals that are now flashing in bright neon lights, screaming “warning, warning, everything is about to change”: Am I ready?
This article previously appeared on Climate Spectator.
perhaps the deniers could invest in the woolly jumper industry. They’ll need to if the world is cooling, as they say it is.
I hope I am ready. Sixty-five, self-funded retiree with no shares. I will not invest in anything that I don’t understand. I also have a small entitlement from the government which nearly pays for my red wine. The Government entitlement does give me quality health care for very little of my money for which I am very grateful.
I live with Multiple Sclerosis and most times we get along OK with each other and I don’t bother the Doctors because waiting rooms intimidate (scare) me. Overweight people taking up two seats to sit on, licking their fingers to turn over the pages of New Idea waiting to get the Doctor to sign off on their next Government freebee.
Sorry, that’s a little harsh but I observe that these people are younger than me and they can only see themselves as recipients of Government assistance. How in the hell did this cultural attitude happen in this country? Where do these people think the Government gets the money to pay for their benefits?
Tony Abbots ‘big fat tax’. Well, tax is the only revenue that Governments have to acquire income but we/us, ORSTRALINS have got to an American place where the average ‘punter’ reckons he/she doesn’t have to pay the ‘ Govment’ any TAX ’cause every thing they earn is theirs .. they earned it. But when hard times falls upon them they demand the ‘Govment’ bails them out. Well, for the average punter who has been deprived of a balanced education I have empathy but I certainly do not have empathy/sympathy for the calculating bankers et al who got so coked up on their own self importance and hedged and betted the whole global finance market into melt down .. and cried help to the ‘Govment ‘ and got it!
Every action has a consequence and I reckon we are now tittering, because of all the coked up actions, on a precipice made of mirrors that have been photo-shopped by the 4th estate.
Someone has to tell the how and why it really is and tell the ‘punter’ that we have to live within our means .. and that Oils ‘ain’t Oils when Oil ain’t anymore we need to embrace another reality …. just like our forebears did when the horse was replaced by the motor car …. the blacksmith by the mechanic.
Bye the way, I’m drinking a Deakin Estate Cabernet Sauvignon 2006 and it cost me $4.00. Trust me, it’s a good drop.
annorton
Sounds like you’re ready, then, annorton!
Well who knows, will we be ready? I believe that one on the essential things that accompany this shift is “community”. A renewed sense that in this increasingly impersonal world, community shares with each other. And that the “I’m alright Jack, bugger you”, attitude declines with this shift and we see the value in community investment, not only stock market returns. I’d rather share some home grown produce than buy similar in a corporate warehouse, shipped from wherever.
But the benefits are more than this, it will restore a little of what we thought was just sentiment from the old days. The benefits are support, care, nurturing, ‘extended sense of family’. We may have multiplied our possessions but reduced our values and done larger things but not better things, but in-truth, instead of going to the moon and back, it’s better just to cross the road and meet the neighbour.
Never know they might have a bottle of red to share as well. Let’s get ready now.