A wonk’s delight – some raw, undiluted polling for you.

Newspoll
– Coalition and ALP Primary Votes in 12 months prior to 1996, 1998, 2001 and
2004(?) Elections

LNP-ALP margin


Fortnight before poll

 Pre
1996 Poll

 Pre 1998 Poll

 Pre
2001 Poll

 Pre
7 August 2004 Poll

 Pre
2 October 2004 Poll

 Pre
4 December 2004 Poll
26

 19

 -4

 2

 10

 6

 9
25

 11

 -8

 -8

 8

 4

 6
(
Latham Elected)
24

 4

 -4

 -6

 7

 2

 3
23

 6

 0

 -13
(Worst result for Coalition in 2001 – 9-11 March)

 6

 10

 2
22

 9

 -1

 -9

 6

 4

 0
21

 7

 4

 -5

 4

 9

 3
20

 8

 -3

 -4

 2

 6

(Latham Elected)

 -3
19

 7

 -5

 -10

 10

 3

 -5
18

 7

 -4

 -1

 4

 2

 -4
17

 11

 0

 1

 9

 0

 1
16

 0

 0

 -7

 6

(Latham Elected)

 3

 0
15

 10

 2

 3

 3

 -3
-3
(


14-16 May 2004)
14

 7

 7

 -6

 2

 -5

 –
13

 10

 3

 -3

 0

 -4

 –
12

 7

 -3

 4

 3

 1

 –
11

 6

 -11

 -2

 -3

 0

 –
10

 9

 -3

 0

 -5
-3



(14-16 May 2004)

 –
9

 7

 -6

 6
(Week
before 11 September 2001)

 -4

 –

 –
8

 6

 0

 4

 1

 –

 –
7

 6

 5

 15

 0

 –

 –
6

 10

 0

 15
-3




(14-16 May 2004)

 –

 –
5

 7

 0

 13

 –

 –

 –
4

 9

 -2

 8

 –

 –

 –
3

 4

 -1

 11

 –

 –

 –
2

 10.5

 1

 5.5

 –

 –

 –
1

 7.5

 -4

 7.5

 –

 –

 –
Negative results in last 12 months

 0

 14

 12

 4

 4

 4
Positive results in last 12 months

 26

 12

 14

 17

 13

 8
Average lead of last 12 months

 7.9

 -1.4

 0.8

 2.5

 1.3

 0.3
Average lead of last 6 months

 7.6

 -1.6

 6.5

 1.0

 1.0

 0.8
Average lead of last 6 fortnights

 8.0

 -1.0

 10.0

 -0.5

 ?

?

Notes: 1. Even in 12 months prior to 1998 election
Coaltion won election despite been behind in polls more than half the time.
2. Coalition in a winning postion prior to 11 September 2001, 6% lead, which
was similar to actual election result. 3. Coalition in 2004 is in a similar
position to 1998 in terms of a narrow lead/trail over the ALP, given we are
in the last six months of this Parliament.