New data from Essential Research suggests Labor faces its worst swing in NSW, not Queensland, with the potential loss of 10 seats and a hung parliament.
Essential has crunched state-based data from the second through fourth weeks of the campaign, finding a big swing against the government in NSW — 6.7%, which on a state-wide basis would see the Coalition pick up seats like Page, Bennelong, Eden-Monaro and even Lindsay.
Queensland, where the Coalition holds a 10-point primary lead, saw a swing of 3.4%, enough to ensure the Coalition retains notionally Labor seats like Dickson and Herbert and handing it seats like Flynn, Longman and Dawson. A much smaller swing to the Coalition in WA — where Essential’s sample size is too small to offer concrete data — would deliver them Hasluck.
The loss of seats in NSW and Queensland is only slightly offset by a small swing to Labor of 0.7% in Victoria, enough to deliver McEwen and La Trobe. An even smaller swing, 0.6%, in South Australia would dash Labor hopes of picking up the seats of Christopher Pyne and Andrew Southcott. Essential’s Tasmanian data is also too small to offer a relevant sample.
Plugging those state outcomes into Antony Green’s election calculator, that would leave a hung parliament with the Coalition on 74 and Labor on 73 seats — assuming Labor can hold off the challenge of Adam Bandt in Melbourne.
The only good news for the government is that Essential’s data is sourced from two of Labor’s worst weeks of the campaign. Essential’s polling is yet to record the small trend back to Labor that appeared in other polls last week (it hasn’t shown up in either its rolling fortnightly sample or last week’s weekly figures). That might indicate the worst outcome Labor faces is a hung parliament, but the fact that NSW appears poised to swing so hard against Labor is surprising.
NSW also looks bad for the Greens, with a primary vote of only 7%, far short of the high level Lee Rhiannon needs to reach a quota on the slim flow of preferences she’ll get. There’s a much higher level of support in Victoria (11%) and South Australia (12%), suggesting both those states will produce new Greens senators. Queensland and WA are polling at 10% for the Greens.
“The only good news for the government is that Essential’s data is sourced from two of Labor’s worst weeks of the campaign.Essential’s polling is yet to record the small trend back to Labor that appeared in other polls last week (it hasn’t shown up in either its rolling fortnightly sample or last week’s weekly figures).” …….
Bernard pray tell, why are you wasting everyones time then?
There is good reason to be concerned about NSW because of the deep unpopularity of the state government. In my own marginal seat of Page the Labor member Janelle Saffin is barely displaying the Labor brand and is campaigning as if she is an independent who is in alliance with the government and thus winning stuff for the local area. One has to hope that Abbott’s stumbling and dissembling performances are really starting to be noticed and that therefore voters will turn away at the brink, and not make a decision they will surely regret.
On a separate point I have noticed that Abbott has stopped saying that his bid to become PM is “the supreme challenge of my life”. Abbott intended this to mean that he was going to try his hardest but it conveyed more strongly the idea that he thought it was all about him and his ego and vanity.
Bloody hell if that’s the case I’m packing my bags for overseas…
While on the subject of Page I might as well also point out that Saffin’s campaign literature is well thought through, well organised and fairly specific. In contrast the Nationals candidate’s (Kevin Hogan) literature is less professional.
For example, the front page of his brochure has a large picture of him, a middle-aged, somewhat overweight man, chatting alone to a very attractive, very young, blond woman. It is such an unlikely looking picture that it is hard to avoid an inference that he is doing something rather inappropriate for a man of his age.
Inside the brochure there are 21 tiny photos that are too small to see what is being portrayed, even if you squint.
That has been the pattern here – much more effective and better resourced campaigning from Labor and it will be interesting to see if it is enough to turn back the anti-State Labor tide.
@DENISE – ‘If you leave me can I come too’? (words in a song?) If Federal Labor loses, they have two Pm’s to blame – how disappointing and depressing! Mind you, the Libs in both states are hopeless? Just carp all the time, but don’t say anything. Anna Bligh had the people ‘outing out of her hand’ and then, stuffed it up! Selling off the state’s ‘jewells’ for what??
I couldn’t even bear to watch Abbott at the National Press Club today. The idea of him as PM is too awful. I’m crook at the moment with a cold; nothing serious, just feel lousy, but if I improve, I think I’ll go and help The Greens. I used to be in Throsy (Jennie George-great woman and great member-she’s retiring?) but now I’m in Gilmore re Redistribution – want her(Joann Gash)to be given the boot! Haven’t helped on polling booths for yrs, due to lousy arms and disenchantment with the ALP (uranium mining initially, now just about all issues – too much like the Libs, but not as bad????) -given my No 1 vote to The Greens for yrs now – can’t stomach the Libs! I even have a Christian Democrat and a Family First candidate???7 in all!
Last election I stayed home – I’m a nervous wreck on election night – not good company at all. This year will be worse? If abbott gets in I might take to my bed like women are reported to have done a few centuries ago! IF I had money, I could take an extended holiday??I wish!
Denise, please don’t go! We’ll need to stick together? Surely people are too smart to vote for these lot again?
Incidently, Joe Hockey has been AWOL for several days now????