He didn’t father a bastard, he just acts like one… but
first to NSW. “We’ve already lost 2007 so we might as well have this out now,”
a veteran of that state’s Liberal wars told me this morning.

Today’s Sydney
Morning Herald lifts the lid on the party jihadists. And a charming bunch they are, too.

Voters won’t care about the difference between the right
and the religious right – or how moderates differ from the left, for that
matter – with the shenanigans going on in the NSW Liberals. They won’t worry
about the subtleties. They’ll just hold their nose and vote Labor.

Tony Abbott’s display of sensitivity over John Brogden – as compared to his public pieties
– have taken the NSW problems federal.

Abbott’s
comments are dumb, are nasty – but are not a resignation offence. They are, however,
completely unhelpful at a time of heightened leadership tensions.

This is an extraordinary week in politics, with Treasurer Peter
Costello missing Parliament to travel to Aceh with brother and World Vision
boss Tim to see just what our tsunami relief dollars are buying. From one point of view it is an audacious, unprecedented
bid for the top job. From another it is a demonstration of the Treasurer’s complete
impotence.

The very fact that Howard is
letting him go shows how firmly in control the PM remains. And the timing is interesting.
Costello is at his best
in the House – and yet it seems that he won’t be missed if he’s overseas the
week the Telstra bills are introduced.

Michelle Grattan talked about the leadership jostling in
the Government yesterday.
She talked about a “skittish” mood on the backbench. Good word.

Abbott’s
private insensitivities on Brogden have finished him off as a leadership
contender. He’s been looking pretty wobbly all year, since the saga of the son
that wasn’t, since it turned out that one of the defining moments of his life
didn’t happen.

Still, Abbott
probably had some hope of being number two. Now, he is likely to be absorbed in
NSW factional wars. They are likely to also envelope another NSW Minister, Joe Hockey.

The winner, though, will be another Minister from the North Shore, Brendan Nelson. Nelson may
be an “unequalled political harlot” , but
he’s also probably the most popular guest at functions for the faithful after
the PM (Costello is
better for fundraisers).

No one seriously rates Alexander Downer as
deputy. His influence would diminish with a Howard
departure. Nelson,
though, is shaping up more and more as a serious contender. You need someone
from NSW on the ticket, to begin with. He’s a good communicator. And the
branches loves him.

But the skittishness isn’t just restricted to the
backbench. The Treasurer’s numbers men are watching Nelson
closely. As we’ve said before, they can count – but they don’t count for much
in the party.

The kinder, gentler Treasurer will be in the spotlight this
week, but let’s highlight another aspect of the man. Twenty years ago, thousands of people had their perceptions
of the Labor Party changed by another ambitious Treasurer, Paul Keating. Hundreds
joined, thanks to him. But who’s ever signed up to the Liberal Party because Peter Costello was
Treasurer? What has he really pushed for that wasn’t part of the Prime
Minister’s agenda already?

The past week’s events in NSW are pushing Nelson to
the fore. And the more he advances, the more the Treasurer and his supporters
should be feeling skittish.