It certainly makes for spectacular headlines. Dynastical concerns, artillery fire, centrifuge development.
To this mass of speculation, a suggestion: while this recent action by the North Koreans is serious — as serious as it has been for a long time — it’s important to take a step back and ask what the immediate causes for this action may be.
There are many reasons why North Korea may have chosen to launch this attack, taking place during the ROK’s annual Hoguk military exercises in the Yellow Sea. Among these, just one may be internal wrangling within the North Korean military. While it is impossible to rule this out, other possibilities have very real implications for the way in which the major stakeholders — especially South Korea, the United States and China — respond to the most recent provocations.
Following the sinking of the South Korean warship, the Cheonan, in March this year, which killed 46 South Korean military personnel, North Korea attracted international condemnation for its action. In July the UN Security Council unanimously condemned the torpedo attack, though it stopped short of directly linking North Korea to the actions. The message, however, was clear: provocative actions will win you no friends, regionally or internationally
A series of conciliatory actions, on behalf of North Korea, followed the UNSC’s condemnation. They called for a resumption of the six-party talks — a call echoed by China — and restarted family reunions, brokered by the Red Cross, between the two Koreas.
The recent provocations are yet another event in the predictably unpredictable and contradictory relationship between North and South.
Neither South Korea nor the US have been willing to re-start the six-party talks, given the current climate in North Korea. A precondition for the talks are positive steps towards disarmament by the North Koreans.
Back in Pyongyang, this seems unlikely. Amid efforts to put in place succession plans, given Kim Jong Il’s ailing health, there seems to be a shifting balance of power, in favour of the Korean Workers’ Party and away from the military. As such, discontent within the military is a possible source of these tensions, and seemingly contradictory actions.
Is this a serious step towards the complete disintegration of the already tenuous peace armistice between the two Koreas? Or is it just more of the same — posturing on behalf of North Korea, a country with few friends, few resources and dwindling options? It remains unclear.
What is clear, in the immediate future, is this has severe implications for ongoing relations between the two Koreas. A relationship that had been slowly built up over years of engagement, and that has more recently been severely tested by a conservative government in Seoul and ongoing North Korean provocations, has perhaps been now pushed to its limits.
While they are unlikely to descend into war — the ramifications of this are just too devastating for either side — coming back from here will be very difficult indeed.
Any problems there will effect us, no doubt.
I just want to say to all the USA knockers, well I can’t say what I’d really like to say , but this is precisely why we need the USA onside.
Our worn out F111’s and leaky old Navy won’t really cut it when it comes to REAL war will it.
I’d also like to say that for once I’m glad Kevin Rudd is foreign minister, he’s across all the issues and you can tell he’s passionate about what he’s doing, I never thought I’d say it but GO KEV.
I wouldn’t give you 2c for his boss though.
Is that the caricature of Kim Jong Il from the movie “Team America” I see at the bottom of this article? Classic!
“North Korea, a country with few friends, few resources and dwindling options”
Countries in that kind of a place can make very bad decisions. If a leader is on the way out, they may not be bothered if they take a number of others with them.
I hope it is nothing “more” than posturing and chest beating. My god, it is unimaginable to think about another Korean war…
My Father fought in Korea with the UN Australian contingent between 1951 – 1953. Still has the schrapnel in the back of his neck, too dangerous to remove the doctors say.
With the oppression and starvation and madman in Korea, the only option is for the UN to work with China to overthrow the regime and return North Korea to a free state, whether that be communist like China or socialist or democratic. It cant go on like this.
@Jim Reiher: In a way, the dynastic nature of North Korea is probably a good thing from that point of view. Kim Jong Il might be on the way out, but his unlikely to want to take the rest of the country with him, because he wants to leave something behind for his son.
From what I’ve seen of Kim Jong Un, though, I’m worried that he doesn’t have the intelligence of his father. Kim Jong Il was a rather savvy customer. But the pictures I’ve seen of Kim Jong Un (and they’ve only been pictures, mind you) I get the impression that he might not be entirely all there… he must’ve led a truely bizzare life and it can’t do a lot for his outlook of the world.