A Canberra sceptic on the NSW Reps death watch

A Canberra sceptic responds to Antony Green:

I read Antony’s hypothesis with interest. I think he meant Farrer
rather than Murray in piece though, but the rest was quite solid. However
whilst the precedents of previous state redistributions (such as the recent
abolition of Lachlan and the creation of Wollondilly) are instructive they do
not reflect some of the greater complexities at work.

Whilst the later enrolment figures and projections will have an impact,
I think it is unlikely that another country seat will disappear in NSW. Whilst
Bennelong, Macarthur, are of interest, I suggest that it is more likely an
inner south western suburbs seat will disappear. I venture Reid, as it is most
under quota (at the time of the 2004 election by nearly 10,000 voters). The
loss of an ALP seat will address the good result of the last redistribution in
NSW, where the ALP notionally lost Paterson, but notionally gained Macarthur and
Parramatta.

Calare may well move further east into the Blue Mountains, which is
what the Coalition suggested previously, and it won’t unduly affect Macquarie
(other than to make it safer for the Liberal Party) or Lindsay. Macarthur will
likely move south and west and become better for the Liberal Party too. As for
Parramatta, it may become a better proposition for the ALP by taking in voters
from Reid, and Greenway may become better for the Liberal Party by gains from
Parramatta.

The spreadsheet below has grouped the electorates by regions and the
collective variance shown. The odds favour a seat such as Reid disappearing
rather than Riverina. The 10 inner southern electorates are collectively about
half of a quota short, 43,627. The six western NSW electorates 16,654, or about
one sixth of a quota, which the western half of Calare would more than
adequately meet.