You might have noticed Julia Gillard didn’t mention the Budget surplus very much yesterday. In fact, she mentioned it just once in her speech yesterday. Instead, her argument for a flood recovery was that it was critical to ensuring the recovery effort doesn’t drive inflation and skill shortages as rebuilding infrastructure competes with a booming economy.
There are plenty of economists, and good ones too, who aren’t quite as convinced as the Government that the flood recovery effort will be battling a surging economy. There are probably a few retailers who would think that, as well — retailers who just saw nearly $2b worth of discretionary spending vanish in 2011-12, apparently because it was going to compete for the rubber, steel and tradies needed to rebuild Queensland.
Moreover, reducing demand can be achieved just as effectively by cutting government spending rather than raising taxes. But the alternative for Gillard was impractical. Standing there and arguing for a levy on taxpayers purely for the sake of meeting Labor’s self-imposed deadline for a return to surplus would have been even less convincing.
Still, there were some policy positives. In delivering the package, Gillard did a drive-by shooting of some wretched programs. Not just Cash for Clunkers — has there ever been an initiative more widely panned than that lauded election announcement? — but the Green Car Innovation Fund, a blatant piece of protectionism for the coddled automotive manufacturing sector by Kevin Rudd, the man who didn’t want to run a country that didn’t make things.
Gillard also continue the slow backpedalling from Kevin Rudd’s obsession with carbon capture and storage by cutting funding for the Carbon Capture and Storage Institute. Expect an angry phone call from President Obama.
Getting rid of carbon abatement programs is a fine idea — particularly those that simply fund activities that would have taken place anyway, like cash-for-clunkers — as long as we can have confidence the carbon price Julia Gillard nuts out with the Greens, Tony Windsor, Rob Oakshott and Andrew Wilkie will be effective at curbing emissions.
Tony Windsor, by the way, is dead right in suggesting we need to think about a permanent natural disaster fund of some kind — exactly the kind of adaptation measure necessary given we’ve more or less already committed to significantly warming the planet and Australia faces the rougher end of the consequences of that. The alternative is that the taxpayers of the future pay for our mistakes — perhaps via one-off levies just like this one — when we should be providing them with a significant inter-generational transfer via a large-scale fund.
But the Prime Minister has at least shifted away from what has been bipartisan policy for the last decade — wasting hundreds of millions of dollars on carbon abatement programs that end up spending sometimes hundreds of dollars a tonne of abated CO2-e emissions — depriving her of any further excuses for not implementing a carbon price that will drive low and non-carbon investment.
Meantime, most of the debate around the levy has been reduced to a micro-level, about whether the levy is personally fair. “We’ve done our bit” was the line from the taxpayer-subsidised trolls at The Australian. Levy supporters on Twitter were more inclined to suggest opposition to the levy reflected some sort of personal moral failing or misanthropy on the part of opponents.
All of that not merely ignores the argument Ms Gillard made yesterday, and more to the point ignores two more important issues — just what role should fiscal policy be playing given the current multi-speed state of the economy and inflation, and where we should going on fiscal policy over the longer term — including in dealing with future extreme weather.
I’m not as convinced as Mr. Keane about the veracity of his headline. The amount that (the more wealthy) taxpayer is being asked to kick in is miniscule when compared with their income, so it seems to me that any backlash is a knee-jerk response more to do with ideology than with anything else. But of course, I forget myself! We live in a market place rather than a society! What must have possessed me to believe that I may have some responsibility to help my fellow Australians?
I can’t see why a small surplus in 2012/13 is so much better than a small deficit but that being said this policy ticks a lot of boxes, kills some bad policy and raises $1.8b without hurting low or middle income earners to much (even high income earners don’t get hit that bad). Anyone who is going to hit even minor financial hardship from losing a couple of bucks a week (or about a pot of beer a fortnight) has some really big problems.
One of the really disappointing things of the debate so far is how Abbott and Hockey have once again gone the oppose, sound bite road. They want to cut spending but haven’t outlined which programs (other than the NBN) and now Hockey is saying it is “a joke” because a high earning single income family pays more than a family with 2 middle income earners even though it is exactly the same as the normal tax system where someone earning $80k pays about $18,750 but to $40k taxpayers pay only $10,100 and would get much more FTB.
Can’t we raise the bar above what plays well in News Ltd papers?
Abbott and Joe have reached new lows with this oppose for the sake of it. Lower than a rattle snakes you know what.
Barry 09 – I prefer the expression, ” lower than whale shit ” to describe how low Hockey, Abbott and News Ltd can oppose and drag down into the gutter any rational debate on, well – anything, really.
I’m with Trev. And haven’t high income earners benefited more from tax cuts over the last 10 years or so than low income earners? The amount of the levy is small and is of short duration. And it’s a gesture towards those who’ve been flooded – in Victoria as well as Qld – which says that the Federal Government is following through on its promise of help.