Succession speculation spins into the polls

“The word inside the government is that John Howard is turning his attention to the retirement question,” Laurie Oakes writes in The Bulletin today. “He is said to have asked key staffers to give him a few months to think about his future. Several of the prime minister’s trusted advisers are known to have been quietly investigating employment opportunities in private enterprise. But, if the discreet inside talk is accurate, Howard wants them to put any plans on hold for the time being while he makes up his mind whether to stay on or hand over to Peter Costello.”

If Howard’s got his bag half packed – and given Beazley’s polling – that means there’s going to be leadership tension in both parties for the rest of year.

Both John Howard’s and Kim Beazley’s futures will depend on what happens with the already-delayed industrial relations legislation. Industrial relations reform has been a personal crusade for John Howard for two decades – while the cause of labour is the cause of Labor.

So who might follow? Over to our friends at Roy Morgan Research.

Last week they asked two questions that a lot of people in Canberra would like to know the answer to: “If you were a Liberal of National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?” and “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

Well, Iron Mark seems to be right on the money about Julia Gillard. And who would have thought Greens voters thought so highly of Alexander Downer?

Roy Morgan Research Preferred Coalition Leader

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution
* Less than 0.5%

Roy Morgan Research Preferred Labor Leader

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution