I have no doubt that the drought conditions over much of Australia during the last year were a major factor in climate change becoming such a major issue in the country’s political life. Now, just as the politicians are about to make decisions on dealing with climate change, public interest in the subject could wane as the drought conditions look to be easing.

The Bureau of Meteorology reports that the national outlook for total summer rainfall (December to February), shows a moderate to strong shift in the odds favouring above average totals in western WA and eastern NSW into southeastern Queensland.

The National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for Summer 2007/2008, issued 22nd November 2007 says:

The chances of exceeding the median rainfall for summer are between 60 and 70% in a large area extending from southeast Queensland across both the northern inland and east of NSW. In WA, a large area covering much of the western half of the state, has chances between 60 and 75% for exceeding the median rainfall over summer (see map).

So for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven summers are expected to be wetter than average in these parts of the country, while about three or four are drier.

Over most remaining parts of the country, the chances of exceeding the three-month median rainfall are between 45 and 60%, except in southwest Victoria where the probabilities drop to around 40% along the coastal fringe.

The Bureau’s maps of drought conditions for the last few years shows how things have changed in recent months.