We’ve seen it all before, back in the 1970s, late 1980s and early 1990s — worries about the stability of financial institutions generating nervousness as investors who rejected the relative safety of banks and chased higher returns suddenly get all conservative and run for cover in the bigger, sounder banks.
It happened with the building society and finance company problems in the 1970s, the finance company and property trust disasters in the late 1980s and early 1990s (anyone remember Estate Mortgage?) and it is happening now with mortgage funds, except for one major difference.
This time the problems are being generated offshore. There’s little damage being done here, except among the financial engineers and companies who ventured off in search of higher yields and return; such as Allco, GPT, Mirvac, Centro, MFS, City Pacific, etc etc.
So the moves by four fund managers, Perpetual, Australian Unity, Axa Australia and Challenger Howard (with more expected today) to freeze their mortgage funds is nothing but a reaction to the nervousness about money, the guarantee to the bank deposits and also the slump in the home building and commercial property markets.
The home building and commercial property sectors have been hit by collapses, big losses and doubts about the stability of many player. Collapses like Westpoint and Fincorp have hurt confidence, and now the financial market turmoil and the guarantee given to bank deposits have forced those yield hunters to become all conservative and bolt for the banks.
Perpetual has had its own bad news. Its funds under management has fallen by $10 billion and more in the past year from outflows and falling share prices. It has had problems with its exact cash management fund which invested in subprime related paper in the US and realised and unrealised losses have topped the $20 million mark. But Perpetual says fund inflows have remained strong with $2.3 billion in deposits at September 30.
Yesterday’s announcement from the company didn’t mention that fund and whether there had been any outflows, and yet it’s the one that has had the worst publicity because of the losses. If it’s not losing money, or if the losses are not significant, does that tell us something about what is happening at Perpetual?
AXA has been forced to freeze a NZ mortgage fund with $117 million in it at the time, the AMP has also frozen a Kiwi fund.
Mirvac has frozen redemptions from property funds it is associated with. It’s not as though the problem has suddenly emerged with the guarantee on bank deposits, as The Australian’s coverage seems to imply.
This has been happening since the crisis started in August of last year, and it has accelerated since the guarantee was issued on October 12.
But we have seen it before. The people who spurned the safety of banks and chased the higher returns from investing in mortgage and similar market linked trusts, who sought big capital gains in shares and groups like Allco and Babcock and Brown, now want the Government to save them from their greed.
That would also penalise the people who have been consistent savers in the banks through term deposits. They were derided as being boring, but today they look like the smart ones. And what about the financial planners who recommended investing in these funds for the higher returns, and pocketed commissions?
Guarantees weren’t handed out in the late 1980s and early 1990s as Estate Mortgage, Trico, the State Bank of Victoria, Pyramid and the State Bank of South Australia fell over, so why now? They were far more devastating, with actual huge losses. Go and ask the people of Geelong about the damage Pyramid did to them. So why the special pleading now. Is it another example of the Australian media’s over the top, don’t stop and think approach to news, especially The Australian?
The banking and financial systems all survived the implosions of the early 1990s and will do so again. If those companies like AXA, Perpetual, Challenger and the like are really interested in helping people, they could arrange loans, using their credit ratings, to their mortgage funds.
The trouble is they don’t want to and won’t because they are still run by people who believe in the financial engineering and leveraged investment approaches of the easy credit days.
They should own up and tell everyone that their funds are all highly illiquid because they can’t sell the assets to raise the cash to payout redemptions. Investors should realise that as well, instead of charging blindly off in search of yield.
Great work Glen… even a fifth grader knows that there is a direct ralationship between risk and return … soon we’ll have people (Dennis Shanahan et al ? ) lobbying the government for tops up from the tooth fairy beacuse their overseas spending power has been eroded as a rsult of the decline in value of the aussie peso!
Excellent peice, Glenn. Glad to see there’s someone telling it like it is.
The inconvenient reality that in the last two weeks we have seen a massive flight of redemptions against these and other funds by scared people. They are fleeing from higher returns and relatively security to government backed safety of banks. To say we have seen it all before is simply naive because we have not. These investment funds are being attacked by appalling government policy made on the run by a panic stricken government.
The US is in a diabolical hole. Talk to anyone (we got a briefing by KPMG) and the terror is abject and real. To be blunt; the US’s banking system is utterly ruined and the linkages between economies through securitisation mean everyone caught cold. The UK is even worse.
Take the $1m plus fee for guarantee; its a stroke of genius. If you place your money in an institution rated below the big four you will pay extra to guarantee it. Anyone see what will happen? Funds will flow from the lesser rated banks to the better rated ones, thus weakening the lesser rated banks. So the very effect of the fee for guarantee is to cause funds to flow quickly from the weaker to the stronger. Um, its called a run and NO bank in Australia could sustain a wholesale funding run. NONE. What would happen to MacQuarie Bank if its investors get flighty?
The same rules apply to the breath and scope of the investment funds. Illiquid assets, a rush of redemptions based on fear and loss of confidence, not incompetent management or bad loans and viola; freezing redemptions is the only solution. These people were chasing a retirement income, not super profits.
Now we have some moronic imbecile (aka the Treasurer) demonstrating such contempt towards self funded retirees as to make many of them wonder why they bothered saving in the first place! The sheer “let the eat cake” arrogance does not inspire confidence that these guys know what they are doing. To be frank, our Treasurer would be hard pressed to take charge of a wet dream.
There is a lot of mis-information being pushed by self interested liberal pollies re the mortgage funds,I became concerned about the viability of them in july this year and decided to pull out of them for a safe haven, finally settling on bank west at 8.71% fixed for 1 year, I was able to access nearly all funds except for $130,000 in two funds, these were frozen till they could sell assetts to pay me, I still get a 10% return paid monthly from them, which I am quite satisfied with, these funds were frozen long before rudd gave the banks their guarantee, so to blame the government for the run on them is wrong, anyhow, it is made quite clear that higher returns all ways equal bigger risk,