As with Sherlock Holmes’s instance of the dog that failed to bark in the night-time, what doesn’t happen is sometimes more remarkable than what does. So it was this week in Thailand with the swearing-in of new prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra and her ministry, following their sweeping victory in last month’s election.

Thailand’s military establishment in recent years has repeatedly resorted to extra-legal means, including tanks in Bangkok and blood in the streets, to keep from power Yingluck’s exiled brother Thaksin, whom she refers to as her “chief adviser”. Yet this time there has been no violence, and the military has promised loyalty to the elected government.

This seems to have come as a pleasant surprise to most observers. When the election campaign started, Yingluck was widely seen as a cipher, keeping the seat warm for her brother and operating entirely at his direction. Gradually, however, she seems to have developed something of her own identity, and even Thais who would not normally be Thaksin supporters have warmed to her.

One element is the novelty of having a female prime minister, which is seen as a sign of political maturity — a mark of that developed world that Thailand longs to join. It’s particularly helpful to Yingluck that those who are most likely to be impressed by that sort of milestone are the urban middle-classes who are otherwise her strongest opponent

An even more important sign of political development, of course, is the ability to change government peacefully; the orderly transfer of power between political foes is the point at which imperfect democracies often fail. But so far in Thailand everyone seems to have played their roles well, making all the proper expressions of goodwill and respect for the people’s verdict.

Nonetheless, there are dangers ahead. In both pro-and anti-Thaksin camps there is a clear assumption that the exiled leader is the one calling the shots, and nothing in Thaksin’s record suggests he will be content to stay out of the limelight.

Thaksin’s own rhetoric has been all about “reconciliation”, but of course at a minimum he expects that to include a pardon and his return to Thailand, as well as clemency for his followers, the “red shirts”, who fell foul of the military in last year’s violence.

If Thaksin returns, it’s hard to see how he can help but overshadow his sister, even if she nominally remains prime minister. And at that point there are bound to be some serious rumblings of discontent in the establishment.

But if both Thaksin and Yingluck play their cards well there is still the opportunity for genuine reconciliation. The establishment is distracted by other worries; King Bhumibol, 83 and in persistent ill-health, will not be around for ever, and no one else in the royal family commands his degree of bipartisan respect. One way or another, change is on the way.

In an ideal world, a popular elected leader at that point would marshal a consensus behind a transition to a republic or a Scandinavian-style figurehead monarchy. Thaksin is much too polarising a figure to be able to pull it off, but if he gives her some breathing space his sister might just be able to manage it.