Durban.
OK, we can sense your eyes glazing over and your attention shifting but honest to goodness, something significant has actually come out of the latest UN climate conference. Really, truly.
Here it is: all countries have agreed to negotiate by 2015 a single, legally binding global agreement that will cover all major carbon pollution emitters including the big guns — China, India and the United States. Never before have all major emitters agreed to have pollution commitments captured by a single, legally enforceable agreement. This eliminates the question oft repeated in this country — if they’re not, why should we?
Of course this agreement will not in any way set the world on course to reach its agreed goal to limit global warming to 2°.
But as Giles Parkinson writes today, the key message to come out of what is now being called the Durban Mandate is one for investors:
… the message to investors could not be clearer: the world is committed to de-carbonising the global economy. Be prepared. The carbon crunch will last a lot longer and have a far greater impact than the credit crunch.
Another surprise to come out of the conference? The EU is capable of uniting around an issue. As The Independent UK reports, Connie Hedegaard, the Dane who is the European Union’s leading climate negotiator, persuaded her Indian opposite number, Jayanthi Natarajan, to accept a form of words meaning that all countries would be legally bound, in a future climate treaty, to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases. India had up until then been the main objector to the idea of a legally binding agreement.
“There is no doubt that the outcome was a notable success for the European Union as a corporate body acting together, as all member states had maintained a completely united front over their quest for a new climate treaty,” writes Michael McCarthy in The Indy.
Now if only they could take that approach to saving the euro economy, a variable that could have a far greater impact on investors in the near future than any kind of agreement coming out of Durban …
*Meanwhile, the cabinet reshuffle will be announced at 1.15pm, check back to The Stump for Bernard Keane’s take.
Oh no! You are kidding aren’t you? One doesn’t turn to Crikey for pathetic naiveté. One thing you got right. Nothing promised or held out as a hopeful aspiration will go anywhere near keeping CO2 levels down to what the IPCC says is necessary to avoid catastrophic global warming.
So, let’s hope that the recent demolition of the IPCC’s reputation (if it had one) for honesty and competence means that the supposed scientific consensus is equally unfounded. Perhaps some of the few scientists who aren’t just taking things on trust and who have relevant expertise and have done relevant research will speak up more loudly now and give us some reason to believe that there is a big anthropogenic warming problem or not.
Meantime, let’s note that the argument against the carbon tax in terms of timing and pricing is even better founded by the extended time frame and low specificity of the Durban result. Australia is doing neither itself nor the world any good, gross or net, by its carbon tax and ETS folliew. Did anyone detect some sign that Australia had an important influence on India, China and the US? Because “influence” and “example” are the other legs of the fantasists argument.
Winston – just as your predecessor waved his “piece of paper” over 60 yrs ago, why would anyone with spare neurones to rub together believe a word of this unagreement?
Jam tomorrow, yeh that’ll be delicious on any bread still available in… 2015!?FFS!!
The only strategy with a skerrick of relevance is that of Bjorn Lomborg, the much traduced Dane, who has too often pointed out that the climate is heading for tip-over point so let’s not waste effort on stopping it. ADAPT or die, a simple choice.
Glad to have you on side AR even if your history is a big dodgy. it wasn’t Winston waving a “piece of paper” [over] 60 years ago: it was his predecessor Neville Chamberlain in 1938. But your “piece of paper” reference has merit in pointing up the absurdity of those who take the Durban nonsense seriously,
Yeah, all those excited about this agreement are getting ahead of themselves. Most countries want to see the next IPCC report (due in 2013/2014) before they commit to action. Hence the 2015 time line and non-committal nature of the agreement (which any country can pull out of without penalty)
Winston – I omitted namesake’s before predecessor to make it seem that it I was talking to “Mr C” hisself…