Property prices may have finally received a little boost from the RBA’s cuts to official interest rates, but most property experts are tipping more of the same from the market in 2012.
Official data released late last week by RP Data showed capital city home prices rose in November 2011 by 0.1%.
While dwelling prices were down 3.5% in the first 11 months to the year, the slight rise in November was the first increase in home prices since December 2010.
Regional markets were particularly strong, rising 0.3% in November, while units were also well performed, with values rising 0.5% compared with a 0.1% fall in house values.
Dwelling prices rose in Melbourne (up 0.2%), Perth (0.5%) and Canberra (0.4%), although Brisbane (-0.7%), Adelaide (-0.3%) and Darwin (-0.9%) saw slight falls. Prices were flat in Sydney.
CommSec economist Craig James says that while the increase in dwelling prices in November was nothing to write home about, “the small increase does signify that home prices are flattening or close to flattening”.
James says the fundamentals for the property market are strong.
“If you had been thinking about purchasing an investment property, now is the time to get your homework and paperwork in order. The job market is healthy, housing markets are considered to be under-supplied and rates have been cut twice in the space of two months. Certainly other asset markets don’t offer the same attraction as residential property.”
“But as always it is a case of researching your prospects as conditions differ significantly across the country.”
James expects RBA’s rate cuts in November and December will help lift demand and prices for housing.
“CommSec expects Australian property prices to grow around 5% in 2012, but as always there will be major deviations from city to city and across regional areas.”
But James’ assessment stands out as being particularly bullish. Most economist and analysts are expecting another very tough year for the market.
In his 2012 market outlook, RP Data analyst Cameron Kusher says that while the interest rate cuts will help boost sales activity, prices are unlikely to move.
“Overall, we anticipate that the soft conditions are likely to persist, however conditions will be better than those in 2011. We forecast that growth will be limited with values potentially falling further in certain areas.”
“In those areas where values do increase they are likely to grow at a rate below inflation.”
Kusher nominates Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart as the weakest capital city markets but says Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Canberra will perform better, although growth if any will be limited.
Kusher’s low-to-no growth scenario is supported by ANZ (which says financial market volatility will “push house prices sideways to lower over the next six to 12 months in most capital cities”) and Queensland veteran Michael Matuisk.
He expects a long period where the market will essentially move sideways.
“We look to some improvement in nominal terms, but in real terms, expect a period of flat growth. Improvement should follow, within a small positive band of 2% to 4% per year over the next several years.”
This article was first published on smartcompany.com.au.
spruiktastic!
This seems to be more of a reprint of Chris Joye’s and all of the perma bullhawks of the property-market-goes-up-forever opinion’s.
If you call a 0.1% increase a market turn around, you are really have a positive outlook. nice way to start 2012.
like share market analysts who only ever say buy or hold and never sell on companies they cover, is “flat growth” and “move sideways” and “soft conditions” and my favourite, “they are likely to grow at a rate below inflation” a housing market commentator’s way of saying sell now!!??!?
James,
The trouble is there is next to no confidence out there. The slow down in house prices is good for first home buyers, although not good for distressed mortgage holders.
The shocking confidence comes from a poor, inept, incompetent Federal Government.
This is highlighted by
1. Po0r retail sales
2. Lack of jobs growth outside mining
3. Incompetent wasteful government, with just 4,000 homes on the NBN according to their figures.
4. Then you have manufacturing saying they are looking at moving offshore, where there is no carbon tax and they can import back into Australia with the free trade arrangement. (Gee Gillard has buried the Union Members with that new tax).
Even McDonalds is increasing fear sin their latest TV ads for a cheap cheese burger
All this lower expectations for consumers.
Then you have more Gillard / Swan incompetence
Labor has failed in just about everything in the last 4 years and Australia is paying.
ECONOMIC GROWTH: LABOR 1.4% to July 2011, Coalition 3.6% annual average in its last 10 years in office.
INFLATION RATE: LABOR 3.5% in last quarter, Coalition 2.5% annual average in last 10 years in office
BUDGET SURPLUS: LABOR -$48 billion 2010/11, Coalition +$20billion in 07/08
GOVERNMENT DEBT: LABOR $107 billion 2011/12, Coalition $0 2007/2008
STRIKES: LABOR 159,800 working days lost in year to July 2011, Coalition 88,400 days lost in year to July 2007
YEARLY INTEREST ON DEBT: LABOR $5.5 billion in 2011/12, Coalition $0 2007/2008
ILLEGAL ENTRANTS: LABOR 89 boats / 4949 people 2010/2011, Coalition 3 boats, 25 people 2007/2008
EASE OF STARTING A BUSINESS: LABOR 15 World Bank Doing Business Rank, Coalition 10 in last year of office
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: LABOR 24.3% Sept 2011, Coalition 16.9% Sept 2007
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: LABOR 5.2% Oct 2011, Coalition 4.2% Sept 2007
Lyi ng Gillard and incompetent Swan have a lot of answer for.
Great way to selective use stats to prove a point that doesn’t exist Susie.
I’m not going to bother really as there are other readers who would are more exuberant than me to poke massive holes in your arguments.
But two things stand out, why is the Federal Government responsible for poor retail sales? That is retailers fault for not adjusting to online/high dollar/rental issues.
Using 2007/08 compared to 2010 completely ignores the biggest GLOBAL financial and economic crises since the Depression and all you’re doing is trying to point out any bad stats are the ALP and nothing external.
Tisk Tisk
S.B you must be Andy Bolt ? Very selective , but bigger enough holes to back a 4 trailer road train though and who is Lyi ng ? is she Vietnamese ?
But well done , got most of the Liberal Lying Black -Hole talking points in the rant. Do you get paid per rant or Hour ? Does Centrelink know about this job ?
SB. A new year and the same BS. Get a life!