Mitt Romney “won” the New Hampshire primary yesterday, with an underwhelming 39% of the vote, after polling in the mid-forties. The second place went to Ron Paul who stormed home with 23%, after polls showed him at about 17%. Jon Hunstman who had appeared to be running neck and neck with Paul came in a poor third, at 17%. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich were neck and neck at 9%, and Rick Perry who abandoned the state early on barely registered at 1%.
The losers are … well, everyone except Ron Paul. Romney performed the rare trick of taking socially conservative Iowa and liberal New Hampshire for the first time since 1976, but it was a begrudging victory gained from relentless spending and more time than he would have wanted to devote to a safe state. His less-than 40% result was a blow, caused by a low turnout of regular Republicans, and a higher turnout for libertarians and independents for Paul, thus giving him his extraordinary result.
Huntsman was finished, and though, at his victory party, he spoke of rolling on, a turn of phrase or two suggested that his heart wasn’t in it. “Tomorrow,” he announced, “we’re going south”. Indeed, indeed. Former NH governor John Sununu noted that it took him six months to get that result and “with 25 years work he would get all 50 states”. All the states coming up have little place for a moderate Republican — as indeed do all states behind.
Gingrich and Santorum hoped that they might put some clear blue water between themselves. It didn’t happen, and the twinned result made them look more doomed than ever. It was particularly disappointing for Santorum after his near victory in Iowa — a better showing would have given him leverage to demand that Gingrich and Perry jump out of the race and get behind him as the standard-bearer.
Gingrich, now loathed by everyone, has become the wandering Newt, with no real base, and no reason to be in the race — save to take some skin off Romney. Santorum and Huntsman may be back in ’16 — though neither has dropped out yet — but this is Newt’s last roll of the dice. A ’16 run would look pathetic.
His results-night party at the Radisson was a bizarre and chilling affair, populated mainly by people who supported someone else but were at this one because it was central. It takes some anti-skill to make a Radisson ballroom look less inviting than usual, but Newt managed it. Huntsman, who was the second drop-in of the night, was at the Black Brimmer, a sort of faux-faux pub — for the life of me I couldn’t work out what it was trying to be like, and it was thus one of the best chosen venues evah.
But it was all Ron P all the time. Your correspondent reached his neck-to-jowl packed shindig late, after watching his fire-breathing speech on TV, in which he had grooved with the energetic crowd. “They think we’re … dangerous! And perhaps we are.” It was the best speech of the night by a mile, a real tub-thumper, in which he outlined his whole philosophy without banging on over much, gave both barrels to US adventurism abroad, and noted that his supporters were as much an inspiration to him as he to them.
“I thought I was here just doing my thing and it was going to go much further and … I didn’t know you were out there,” he said, which got a huge roar. The big win will pull in a huge new tranche of funds for Paul and propel him into Florida and beyond. He will not win, but he now commands a stunning 40% of young primary voters in the north, and about 35% nationwide. His losing looks like winning, and Romney’s win looks like the reverse.
As John Podhoretz noted: “Never has a victor looked so utterly defeated.”
Is it just me or is anyone else already utterly bored with all of this trivial minutiae on these US primaries? There is some excuse for the massive TV coverage as they get fed all these inane pictures for next to nothing – but Crikey?
Ah! but then we are told that Paul’s ‘losing looks like winning and Romney’s win looks like the reverse.’
Well eh … So?
And there is such a long way to go….
@Gavin: yes, of course we are. but it’s still the holidays, and nothing else is on.
@Guy: Pyrrhic victory is what you’re looking for – “one more such victory would utterly undo him”
Can anyone in Australia tell me why we have the twaddle of an American political party on our news pages. What is the fascination ? We don’t hear much about Angela Merkel or the Orcale of Morroco. Just give it a break until Americans vote for a government, not the resident Idiot Appointing.
Well I for one am happy to keep reading, both for the contest and for Guy’s writing. His series on the last election was great as travelogue as well as political analysis and horse-race color commentary. Keep it up…
The only “un-owned” candidate I believe on the Republican side is
Ron Paul and the only “un-owned” candidate as best I can tell on the
Democrat side is Denis Kucinich.
Everyone else is the property of the banks, which are the property
of the oil companies, which also own the environmental movement
if you didn’t know.
The completely owned shill media in this country barely rate
Ron Paul a mention despite his showing. He is massively shut out of the coverage despite his position and in synch around the Empire” the shills and pundits all say he can’t win but he is because with little money and no backing from anyone other than the people of the US and a few interested passers by, he has managed to come in #2 or #3 thus far. Imagine what will happen if the next money bomb hits $10 million.
On the question of whether Paul can win…with the controlled media to a one against him, the millions that will be poured into the puppets on both sides and the fact that Paul would be assassinated if it looked like he may gain the nomination, it is unlikely he could win. Nevertheless, if he were to get up, half of all Democrats and the bulk of liberal Republicans – i.e. anyone who believes in the authority of the US Constitution on the liberty of humanity would vote for him.
But… the money trust would never let it happen. They have been in full control of the US from the time they were able to print the money (1913) and the rest of the world since WWII. With the ability to print the world currency (80% of world trade is conducted in US dollars), no one can stop them unless the people unite as one. Thus far self interest has always won the day so they continue with their technotronic (Brzezinski’s word not mine) world revolution where, if they get their way, carbon credits will be the new currency.
Too bad I say. But watch this space because if Ron Paul were ever to get up, he will as his commercials say, “drain the swamp”. And then we may see some changes for the better in this world. Away from the ability of Wall Street to steal from the people with impunity, the military industrial complex to instigate endless no win wars, the end of NATO the world police, the end of cynical welfare spending that goes to the major welfare providers like Big Pharma and Big Bill – and never to the people in need; the end of foreign aid which is really just high interest loans to the poorest nations secured by their national heritage. These countries never see the money and it is never earmarked for education or clean water. The Third World is forced to accept “aid” paid directly to US contractors or approved multinationals for the construction of roads to nowhere, dams to hell and unoccupied office towers and government administration blocks while the poorest in the world pick up the tab because their corrupt leaders sell them out for a Swiss bank account and an apartment in Nice complete with “furnishings” .
Nope..we couldn’t let Ron Paul win folks! The world doesn’t work like that.