It’s fair to say that the Arab League observer mission to Syria started with low expectations. The fact that president Bashar al-Assad equivocated so long before agreeing to accept it was a bad omen, and despite the events of the last year the majority of Arab regimes are still no friends to democracy and human rights. The head of the mission, a Sudanese general, is himself a suspect for war crimes.
Expectations have certainly been borne out. Not only has the killing in Syria not been halted, its pace seems to have actually increased since the observers started their work. The United Nations now estimates a total civilian death toll of more than 5000, more than 400 of them in the past three weeks. Yesterday’s casualties included a French television reporter, Gilles Jacquier, the first foreign journalist to die in the violence.
Nor is there any sign that Assad recognises any need to change course.
Although he continues to deplore violence and promise reform, his public appearances this week have displayed every sign of what David Blair calls “dictator delusion syndrome” — the unrest is all the work of foreigners, traitors and terrorists.
From the Arab League’s point of view, this is a disaster. It desperately wanted to show that it could solve regional problems itself, without foreign intervention; the more ruthless Assad becomes, the worse it looks. But a victorious Syrian revolution would be almost as bad, adding to pressure against the region’s remaining autocrats — especially in Saudi Arabia, the driving force behind the Syrian peace plan.
What the Saudis want is for Assad to go peacefully, but that now looks more remote than ever. A slow but steady stream of defections from the Syrian army is edging the country ever closer to all-out civil war.
Anwar Malek, who resigned from the observer mission in disgust, told Al Jazeera that Assad’s regime was not dealing with the League in good faith: “In fact they were trying to deceive us and steer us away from what was really happening, towards insignificant things.” He said that instead of being hampered by the mission it “has gained a lot of time that has helped it implement its plan”.
But that raises the question of just what Assad’s plan is. If he is really as deluded as he seems, he may believe that once the foreign infiltrators have been weeded out, Syria can go back to being peaceful and contented. But even in isolation this would be wildly improbable; with the glare of international attention and the inspiration provided by the other Arab revolts, it is completely out of the question.
The one big thing that the Arab League mission has provided is publicity. News media have short attention spans, and a month or two ago there was a risk that much of the world would just forget about Syria.
That now looks unlikely; the killing is happening in plain view, and pressure will only mount for someone, somehow, to do something about it.
Whether anything can be done is related to the question of why Assad, unlike Hosni Mubarak and Muammar Gaddafi, has been able to withstand domestic opposition and international condemnation for so long. If the answer is just that he’s more crafty and more ruthless than they were, then the chances of ousting him without even greater bloodshed seem remote.
But if, as I suspect, the answer is that Assad has had more genuine support among influential sections of his country’s population, then things are not so hopeless. As international sanctions start to bite, and as the regime’s reformist veneer becomes more and more transparent, that support may dwindle to the point where either Assad or those in his inner circle (not to mention his few remaining allies) see the writing on the wall.
If Western assistance can speed that process then it certainly should be given, but it’s unlikely that there’s much we can do — Turkey, Russia and of course the Arab League itself are much better placed. And while it is distressing to watch people being killed, the example of Iraq is there to remind us that untimely intervention can lead to blood and chaos on a vastly greater scale.
You need to research an outfit known as “The National Endowment for Democracy” funded by the US Congress but probably few if anyone in Congress knows what they do. I believe they are the ones doing the “Arab Spring” thing and the new “Get Putin” stuff. Then there is also Freedom House and of course Soros’s crowd over at the “Open Society Foundation” (lol). You’ll find the basis for the “uprisings” in that lot. I think they are doing the Occupy Wall Street as well but they have lost control of it as genuine protestors have over-run them which is why the police are using rubber bullets and mace now – forsaking that gentle pat on the behind and the wag of the finger.
The goal is to destabilise the Middle East with the final domino – Saudi Arabia (shhh they don’t know! Gaddafi thought that he was in with a nudge and a wink and look what happened to him). These ME countries will, within two years, enjoy the intimate experience of the UK inspired Muslim Brotherhood running their respective states for the next twenty, while oil experiences significant cuts in production and significant increases in price providing the impetus for ….. the “Global Smart Grid”. As the “crisis” ensues, get a front row seat as the price of oil hits $150 –$200 and discover the lead time for serious replacement is probably 100 years. That means carbon credits trading run by Wall Street for the next 100 years with you playing the willing lamb to the slaughter.
So we will all think that this is a wonderful idea and will sign up to the global energy grid (coming to a place near you soon – something like the NBN only dearer) as quickly as we can. Energy will then be allocated to you me and everyone else globally using smart meters, with the insiders getting it and the outsiders really getting it!
If you have one of these meters operating at your place at the moment you will know what I mean.
Assad will go whether you like it or not and whether he decides to leave or not. Then, it’s on to Yemen, Jordan and finally Saudi. Whoopee! Iran…well they won’t do that as long as the Russians remain “difficult”.
@Bohemian: sorry, I sometimes lose track of the different conspiracies. This one I take it has the learned elders of Zion conspiring with the Muslims to raise oil prices in order to … make money out of smart meters? Are the Illuminati involved as well?
Hi Charles,
The survival of Assad (in contrast with Bin Ali, Mubarak and Gaddafi), has a few reasons:
1) Sectarian issues – Assad is an Alawite, a sect of Shia Islam, who make up about 2% of Syria’s population. They also occupy key military and economic posts, and remain loyal to him. There is also a minority Christian population as well as a majority Sunni population. There is a real danger of a push to oust Assad turning into a bloody sectarian conflict like Lebanon in the 1980s.
2) Regional issues – Syria has extensive links with Iran and Lebanon. Attempts to oust Assad could lead to a regional conflict with much bigger players.
3) No oil – There is no benefit of increased energy security to the West.
4) China & Russia – Both have extensive economic interests in Syria, and do not want to encourage activists in their own countries.
@Andrew: Thanks for that; good points. Your first reason I think is definitely important; that’s part of what I had in mind in the suggestion that Assad had more of a genuine support base. Most of the Alawites will probably stay loyal, but I doubt they’ll be enough on their own if the middle class in Damascus & Aleppo abandons him. The other three points I’m not so sure about – they seem to apply equally well to Egypt, but that didn’t stop the revolution succeeding there. Russia’s role is particularly interesting & I would have liked to say more about that, but basically I think anyone with economic or strategic interests in Syria will very much want the present chaos to not continue, & if easing Assad out is the only practical way to stop it then I suspect that’s what they’ll do.
The problem for western governments and the Saudi and Gulf states when lecturing the world on the evils of the Syrian Government is, when they shake their own clothing, the remnants of colonial self interest drops to the ground.
That the majority of Syrians haven’t demanded that President Assad take the revolver and go into the library and do the decent thing, is consistently overlooked by much of the media. There are multiple reasons for the lack of a unified rebellion; the largesse of the Assad family to Syria’s elite keeps the business sector and the souk merchants happy. They have witnessed critical infrastructure being built, a doubling of the education budget and until recent strife, a doubling of tourism. This is not to suggest, like Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, that younger Syrians don’t seek more freedom from a repressive state. However, the greatest concern for the majority of Syrians is the loss of secularism should Assad fall, and the vacuum be filled by religious fundamentalists.
Nor do Syrians want the cavalry charging in from the west. By way of Iraq and Afghanistan, the west has demonstrated what happens to countries and their people when the cowboys turn up and start spreading the democratic cloth. And who would wear the regalia of the newly elected? The media espouse a Syrian Opposition as if there exists some well organised alternative waving a national plan. Unfortunately a web site and a willing spokesperson from an aggrieved faction do not an Opposition make.
A very proud people who harbor great love for their homeland, Syrians don’t want Iran, the Arab states or the United States and supporters determining their future leaders by stealth.
Syria is coming off a long run up. It will need considerably more time in the nets before it’s ready to play as a democratic state. If it is to happen it should be at a time of the Syrians own choosing not that of the international community.
With regards to additional sanctions, surely the grown-ups among us understand how these operate in reality; History shows us that sanctions seriously harm an already struggling people while the Government and their groupies remain unscathed. Over a million Iraqi civilians – the majority of them children – died due to Mr Bush’s sanctions while Saddam and his cohorts continued to live the life of Reilly.
The Australian media continually fails to recognise the complexity of the current situation. Taking into account the very restrictive media in Syria, its coverage of events borders on indolent. Events are described and television vision presented with very little attempt at verification. Some of the coverage purporting to be shot in Syria would be risible were it not so serious.
Corruption and violent excesses within any Government is reprehensible and should be strongly condemned, however, foreign forces creating violence and economic mayhem within Syria are very much at work. There are many seasoned players in this match.
Everyone who loves Syria and her people want the violence and deaths to stop. However, it must be the Syrian people who decide if Assad should be given his marching orders and when. At the moment the majority seem to be having five bob each way. Let the Syrian people decide when the time is right to place their bets.