It’s bad news for Labor and Greens supporters in Queensland, just under one week out from the state election.
The Galaxy Poll over the weekend had the Liberal-National Party poised to win up to 70 seats, with the most likely Labor representation between 10 and 15 in the 89-member parliament. The Greens are down to 9% support.
Geographically, on the most favourable interpretation of the poll, Labor would hold a clutch of seats around Logan and Ipswich, Lytton on Brisbane’s south-eastern outskirts, Anna Bligh’s seat of South Brisbane, and then just three seats in the whole of the state north of the Brisbane River: Sandgate, Mackay and Rockhampton.
This is the underlying electoral demography of Queensland — there are no inner-city left redoubts. Labor’s safe seats are simply the ones experiencing the highest level of disadvantage and social exclusion in metropolitan south-east Queensland south of the river.
On these figures, five ministers would survive — Anna Bligh, Annastacia Palaszczuk, Rachel Nolan, Tim Mulherin and Vicky Darling. Four women out of five, and a Labor caucus of 13 (which is what we’re contemplating with a uniform swing) would see a majority of Labor MPs being women for the first time. I would hope that Bligh would be succeeded by another woman (for my money, Palaszczuk) and she almost certainly would be.
The remaining frontbenchers would be joined by four first-term MPs, and a few incumbents left standing after the tide sweeps most Labor members away.
Labor’s momentum, observers suggest, stalled last weekend. The long campaign has proved to be a mistake, and the highly personal nature of the assault on Newman over-egged. Kate Jones, despite receiving Greens preferences, will probably now go down to defeat in Ashgrove, as will deputy Premier Andrew Fraser in Mount Coot-tha and other up and coming frontbenchers.
Ministers have been fighting for their electoral lives, and the Premier has carried the thrust of the attack on Campbell. There are legitimate questions he has to answer, particularly around senior staff in his mayoralty team running development companies on the side, but the sheer negativity of the campaign has now turned around and bit Labor.
Bombarded by paper, dazzled by the onslaught of TV ads, electors have switched off, and the “it’s time for a change” meme has resurfaced with a vengeance. It was always going to be hard for Labor to counter this (though a more thematically unified positive vision would have helped). But the Premier, who is going down fighting, is now reduced to warning of the dangers of a huge LNP majority.
If the result on Saturday looks like the polls suggest, the ALP will face a very difficult task in rebuilding.
Questions will be asked about the wisdom of importing strategists such as Bruce Hawker, and about the impact of federal factors.
But, one way or another, it looks highly likely that Queenslanders face a long LNP reign.
*This article was first published at Larvatus Prodeo
The Qld election is so depressing and so predicatable. Next week Qlders will vote out Labor and a new government will be elected in a landslide. Happiness will spread across the land for a time and then it’ll all start again. Why? Because a landslide victory will only change the colour of government from red to blue. It’ll give the new lot free reign to do as they wish – any way they want. A hung parliament at least makes all sides work harder. And of course when it all goes pear-shaped it’ll be the politicians’ fault again, not the media’s lack drive to get accountability. Nor will the voters blame themselves for laziness in looking beyond self-interest, the headlines and the slogans. We get who we voted for – and end up getting what we don’t deserve.
However and whyever it was done, some representation of the truth has eventually been dragged forth re Wivenhoe.
Just for that, and for the release of the damaging report just before an election, Anna Bligh has struck a tiny blow for political integrity (compare with AWB scandal, RBA scandal, etc, etc). I wish her well in her next career…
It’s not all bad news for Labor is it? Sure it’s their own doing, but on the bright side, look at how long they’re going to have to figure out “What can go wrong when you take so much for granted?”
From not thinking you have to tell anyone you’re going to conduct a fire sale of assets if you win an election.
The sheer bloody-minded incompetence of keeping on deadwood dressed as ministers – that sap the life out of the party’s electoral appeal – to satisfy factional warlords.
The sort of “loyalty deal” that manifested itself in ministers leaving it up to the mandarins of the public service to adopt what became the Health Pay Fiasco – and the way the little people were seen to be treated during that “death of a thousand cuts”.
Even with the electoral system they introduced that helped them stay in power – “just vote 1”.
And what all this has gifted a press (much owned and run as a conservative image factory, with little competition in that field of crop circle spin), programmed to run negative PR campaigns against anything on the Left, in their virtually unfettered influence on public opinion. Especially after the official “Limited News Party” blew the last election, they were hardly going to give up a chance to respray Labor this term. Negative news ever day has to take it’s toll – and they know that as well as anyone.
Now Queensland can check out what happens when there isn’t an opposition – I wonder how long it will be before the LNP looks at that voting system – they’ll be up against soon enough.
When Bligh won the last election with less than the previous ALP majority, in her victory speech she acknowledged “Queenslanders, I hear what you’re saying.” Or words to that effect. But, being politicians, they actually hear very little.
The LNP will be inept in government due to the dearth of talent on the front bench (or rear benches, come to that). The only alternative face we see is that of Campbell Newman. The team is absent. And that’s a wise decision as I regularly watch them in Question Time at George Street and witness their cluelessness first hand. It’s a pity more Queenslander voters haven’t had this insight.
The LNP will easily be as bad as Bligh’s Labor but, most likely, worse. What a pity Bligh has already flogged off our state’s assets, effectively robbing the LNP of all the fun.
“Canned Doo” will have to be every bit the α male/control freak Rudd is, to keep his troop in line and from pillaging the “rubes” in this new game park – I’d like to see that.