Peter Brent of Mumble Politics has crunched the
numbers from the weekend by-election in Queensland – with
mixed results. While accepted wisdom up north says that massive
swings are natural by-election anti-government reactions, Labor party insiders
are not so sure.

There are claims that polling in the last week had voters reacting
badly to Peter Beattie’s attempts trying to divert attention from the local
health system towards Commonwealth IR proposals. There’s concern that the swing was much
more hardened. The electorate of Chatsworth, after all, was held by Labor all
through the Joh years.

While Beattie embarked on the tried and true “I’m
sorry and I’m going to fix it” routine, he added that the by-election losses
were his entire fault and related to health. He was dead right – but for all
the wrong reasons. Sources say the decision to campaign on IR was Beattie’s
decision – a dreadful misreading of the electorate that would not have happened
if Terry Mackenroth hadn’t quit. Some backroom boys say that without this
denial, the swings would have just been manageable.

Queensland insiders are now closely watching our fellow Khemlani fan John Mickel.
Not much more has been heard about Energex since he got handed that hot potato.
Beattie looks haggard. Stress and the lo-cal diet the missus keeps him on are
showing. Mickel looks fresher. Could he end up with the Treasury portfolio or
will Beattie dump Health in his lap?

Meanwhile, while Labor is officially pointing
to the comfy majority Beattie still enjoys, they know that one of the new
Liberal MPs, Michael Caltabiano, means business. Business donations.

Thanks to his links, the win by Caltabiano could
well attract the necessary money needed to run a substantial campaign to put the
local Libs maybe not in government, but within striking distance of becoming
the dominant party in Queensland’s next conservative government.