Peter Costello might become the next Prime Minister of Australia. He has a slim chance, but it’s there. But the scenario does not involve him replacing Brendan Nelson as opposition leader.
Much of politics is cyclical. The decade and a half just gone was the easiest of political times for incumbents, particularly in freshly deregulated economies. Tripling house prices, low unemployment and interest rates, cheap consumer goods and a casual attitude to foreign debt meant that any political party taking power was assured an easy ride.
Canada’s Liberals (from 1993) and Labour in Britain (1997) and New Zealand (1999) all won easily with record majorities. Here in Australia there was a similar story at state level, and federally, even a mediocre politician like John Howard could clock up a few (modest) wins.
But electoral gravity gets you in the end, and now all the above national governments have either been ejected from office or look set to be.
By contrast, the 1970s oil shock and stagflation saw short governments as the norm.
So what of the current cycle? It is possible that future observers will look back on a tanking international economy and attempts to tackle climate change as resulting in a period of frequent changes of government?
A large part of politics being about luck and timing, whoever is Liberal leader in 2010 would then stand some chance of becoming Prime Minister.
But the rub for Liberal leader aspirants is in this timing. Brendan Nelson’s 10-day overseas trip suggests he has accepted he’s a goner, but whoever takes over in 2008 is likely to face at least a year of poor opinion poll results, and the nature of modern politics means they will not last to the next election.
The trick, then, is not to be the next Liberal leader, but the one after that.
Imagine this scenario: amid a tanking economy, Peter Costello is installed six months out from the next election. Similar to what the Libs attempted with Kerry Chikarovski in NSW in late 1998 – with the important difference that the public already knows Costello. Peter can not only boast of his magnificent treasurership, but also reveal his warm and cuddly side, doing the Macarena on Sunrise and discussing his love of football. Snaps of the family, Tanya on the magazine covers, and so on.
Yes, all this stuff wears thin after a few months, but by then he’s been elected PM.
That is the best chance of Peter Costello fulfilling his ambition. But organising it would obviously be very, very tricky.
so who’s in between 🙂
and what if they play a cool game and maintain relatively modest but steady with some increase approval ratings from now (soon) till 6 months from the election.
Costello would find it difficult to displant them then, without it being glaringly obvious and potentially back firing and damaging himself/the party for the election.
then they get to do the Macarena, we finally get introduced to their wife and kiddies etc.
and the entire meantime, Costello’s perceived ‘ticker’ and ‘balls’ issues were/are only reinforced.
risky stuff.
nope…now (soon) or never…you either believe in and demonstrate your political abilities to lead…or you don’t…
maybe better to keep Nelson slow bleeding for another 6 months till every last Australian cries out for him to be replaced? make it happen in the New Year and before the next budget…perfect opportunity for Costello to come in strongly refuting…before then, book launch/US election/Christmas period…that time will fly by…
but since that time will fly by…may as well do it now (soon) and more immediately ‘answer his critics’ on ticker and balls issues…
cause once he’s leader, those perceptions should dissolve…just continue to paint Howard as the out of touch one (‘STILL a strong Nelson supporter?’) who screwed him over.
(course the book could pong too)
Lame joke today down at Bondi with the parking officers – You blokes should issue a ticket to Malcolm Turnbull …
Why’s that?
Peter Costello has parked him for so long he must be over the time limit by now.
Unlike Chika’s circa 1999 Libs in NSW and other state Liberal Parties around the country, the Federal Libs (with the exception of a couple of notable former senior Howard govt Ministers) haven’t just gone out to lunch for their opposition years (although we’re not at the end of their first year in opposition yet). So it is indeed still game-on, albeit one which statistically favours the ALP on the basis that one-term governments are very rare at federal level. This article oversimplifies Howard’s fortunes in government – it was not so simple as Howard benefiting entirely from international circumstances, nor did Labor look particularly ready for Government after 1996 until ten years later. The question is will the Libs be able to identify their leader, policies and relationship with the electorate in time for the next election. Keating’s discussion with Kerry O’Brien on last night’s 7:30 Report largely revolved around the question of narritive. If the Libs can develop a good one, they’ll win. However, on current form, this is extremely unlikely. The Libs best bet (and I’ve said this on these pages before) is to spend this term and the first bit of the next one developing strategy and narritive, then choosing their best leader in time for the election-after-next. If they can get this right, they’ll bolt it in (to go another Keatingism). Anything less will deliver Fed government to the ALP for up to a decade.
Spelling D’OH! Narrative, not narritive.
When in this scenario can we expect to see policy development and team building take place? Costello has no runs on the board in either area, both of which are at the centre of the Libs’ current plight. As I view it, teams form around popular candidates (read: Hawke, et al) or manipulative beasts with draconian enforcement systems (read: Howard).
Costello is and never will be either. Nelson, I am afraid, may well be stuck with his poisoned chalise until after the next election, by which time a new power structure within the Libs may have emerged to take the reins during the post-election turmoil.
Thus, this whole article is seen to be no more than wishful thinking and a beat-up.