Hope springs eternal in the politician’s breast but a little bit of encouragement from the pollsters can help foster the sentiment. Prime Minister John Howard knows that, so he made sure he had a good news polling story to tell in this morning’s party room meeting.

After searching through the reams of data provided by the Liberal Party’s Crosby/Textor research team, the PM found the example of Eden Monaro. Recent surveys showed that Special Minister of State Gary Nairn, at least in Mr Howard’s version, still had his nose in front of his Labor opponent.

For Liberals, who’ve spent the last week calculating what the national swing to Labor indicated by Newspoll would do to their own chances, this was a little tale of hope. Eden Monaro is, as they say in politics, the bellwether seat which, since a redistribution in 1972, has been won by the party which won government. If Gary Nairn could win against the incoming Labor tide shown by Newspoll and the others then perhaps anybody could.

Drowning men are attracted to straws but just how long frightened Liberals will be buoyed by the optimism of the Prime Ministerial anecdote will be revealed next Tuesday morning when Newspoll is again published in The Australian. Another bad result and all the speculation will be back again as desperate members again flirt with desperate action.

Cabinet members and backbenchers alike are in a fickle mood as the events of the last few days have indicated. Their extreme nervousness about their future will not disappear because no one this morning had the courage and the numbers to depose the leader. A further move of Newspoll towards Labor and perhaps even the Treasurer Peter Costello will discover that he has a backbone.

Goodness knows what the chances are of Labor’s lead increasing. The entrants in the Crikey Pick the Newspoll contest last week were surprised by the last rise in support for Kevin Rudd and his team. When opinions are sought this weekend by the pollster the politicians are most influenced by it’s hard to see that the instability will have improved John Howard’s standing.

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