Bennelong gone. Kooyong now marginal?

The very idea that Kooyong could ever be held by the Labor party would surely have Sir Robert Menzies turning in his grave. But this morning’s Newspoll showing voting intentions by State puts the current incumbent, Liberal Petro Georgiou, well and truly in the marginal category.

The very idea that Kooyong, the area of metropolitan Melbourne from leafy Kew and Hawthorn in the west to Balwyn and Canterbury in the east, could ever be held by the Labor party would surely have Sir Robert Menzies turning in his grave.

From the time of federation it has only had six members, all of them good representatives of conservative parties, but this morning’s Newspoll showing voting intentions by State puts the current incumbent, Liberal Petro Georgiou, well and truly in the marginal category.

For Prime Minister John Howard the portents are even worse. On the forecast swing for New South Wales, his seat of Bennelong would end up with Labor’s Maxine McKew having a comfortable majority of around 8%! With that much to worry about in his own electorate, no wonder the PM is having trouble with the names of his party’s candidates in other parts of the country.

This Newspoll, published quarterly so that a meaningful sample can be gathered for each state from the normal fortnightly samplings, will have Government members right down the eastern seaboard frowning this morning. It shows a two party preferred swing against the Coalition of 12.2 percentage points in NSW, 11.1 points in Queensland, nine points in Victoria and 10.4 points in South Australia. In the economically booming Western Australia the swing is put at “only” 5.5 points. Nationally the swing as measured from April to July is 9.8 points – 9.5 in the five capitals cities and 12.2 outside of them.

An actual result by state anything like that shown by Newspoll would be absolutely disastrous for the Coalition. Using the figures from the excellent Mackerras Pendulum which, based on revised boundaries, has Liberals and Nations starting with a notional 89 of the 150 seats to be contested, the Coalition would end up falling to 42 seats.

	Coalition Vote Last Election	Coalition Vote Forecast	Current Seats	Forecast Seats
NSW	51.2	39	27	11
Victoria	51.0	42	18	11
Queensland	57.1	46	23	9
South Australia	54.4	44	8	3
West Australia	55.4	50	10	8
Tasmania			2	0
Territories			1	0
TOTAL			89	42

Details of individual seats by state should Newspoll turn out to be correct are also interesting:

NEW SOUTH WALES
Electorate	Incumbent	Current Margin	Forecast Margin
Mitchell	Lib	-20.7	-8.5
Riverina	Nat	-20.7	-8.5
Parkes	Nat	-18.8	-6.6
Bradfield	Lib	-17.5	-5.3
Mackellar	Lib	-15.5	-3.3
Farrer	Lib	-15.4	-3.2
New England	Ind	-14.2	-2.0
Lyne	Nat	-14.1	-1.9
Cook	Lib	-13.7	-1.5
Berowra	Lib	-13.1	-0.9
Hume	Lib	-12.9	-0.7
Warringah	Lib	-11.3	0.9
Macarthur	Lib	-11.1	1.1
Greenway	Lib	-11.0	1.2
North Sydney	Lib	-10.1	2.1
Gilmore	Lib	-9.5	2.7
Hughes	Lib	-8.8	3.4
Robertson	Lib	-6.9	5.3
Paterson	Lib	-6.8	5.4
Cowper	Nat	-6.6	5.6
Page	Nat	-5.5	6.7
Dobell	Lib	-4.8	7.4
Bennelong	Lib	-4.0	8.2
Eden-Monaro	Lib	-3.3	8.9
Lindsay	Lib	-2.9	9.3
Wentworth	Lib	-2.6	9.6
Parramatta	Lib	-1.1	11.1
Macquarie	ALP	0.5	12.7
Richmond	ALP	1.5	13.7
Lowe	ALP	3.1	15.3
Banks	ALP	3.3	15.5
Prospect	ALP	6.9	19.1
Werriwa	ALP	7.1	19.3
Barton	ALP	7.6	19.8
Calare	ALP	7.9	20.1
Charlton	ALP	8.4	20.6
Kingsford Smith	ALP	8.6	20.8
Newcastle	ALP	8.7	20.9
Shortland	ALP	9.3	21.5
Hunter	ALP	11.2	23.4
Cunningham	ALP	11.7	23.9
Reid	ALP	12.0	24.2
Chifley	ALP	12.1	24.3
Fowler	ALP	13.5	25.7
Throsby	ALP	13.9	26.1
Watson	ALP	14.6	26.8
Blaxland	ALP	15.3	27.5
Sydney	ALP	17.3	29.5
Grayndler	ALP	21.3	33.5

VICTORIA
Electorate	Incumbent	Current Margin	Forecast Margin
Mallee	Nat	-24.8	-15.8
Murray	Lib	-24.1	-15.1
Indi	Lib	-16.3	-7.3
Aston	Lib	-13.2	-4.2
Wannon	Lib	-12.4	-3.4
Casey	Lib	-11.4	-2.4
Flinders	Lib	-11.2	-2.2
Menzies	Lib	-10.7	-1.7
Goldstein	Lib	-10.1	-1.1
Kooyong	Lib	-9.6	-0.6
Dunkley	Lib	-9.4	-0.4
Higgins	Lib	-8.8	0.2
Gippsland	Nat	-7.8	1.2
McEwen	Lib	-6.5	2.5
La Trobe	Lib	-5.9	3.1
Corangamite	Lib	-5.4	3.6
McMillan	Lib	-5.0	4
Deakin	Lib	-5.0	4
Bendigo	ALP	1.0	10
Isaacs	ALP	1.5	10.5
Holt	ALP	1.6	10.6
Ballarat	ALP	2.3	11.3
Chisholm	ALP	2.7	11.7
Bruce	ALP	3.5	12.5
Melbourne Ports	ALP	3.7	12.7
Jagajaga	ALP	4.5	13.5
Corio	ALP	5.7	14.7
Hotham	ALP	7.5	16.5
Calwell	ALP	8.2	17.2
Lalor	ALP	8.8	17.8
Maribyrnong	ALP	9.5	18.5
Scullin	ALP	14.8	23.8
Gorton	ALP	14.9	23.9
Gellibrand	ALP	15.0	24
Wills	ALP	17.0	26
Melbourne	ALP	21.2	30.2
Batman	ALP	21.4	30.4

QUEENSLAND
Electorate	Incumbent	Current Margin	Forecast Margin
Maranoa	Nat	-21.0	-9.9
Moncrieff	Lib	-19.9	-8.8
Groom	Lib	-19.0	-7.9
Fadden	Lib	-15.3	-4.2
McPherson	Lib	-14.0	-2.9
Fairfax	Lib	-13.3	-2.2
Forde	Lib	-13.0	-1.9
Fisher	Lib	-13.0	-1.9
Wide Bay	Nat	-12.2	-1.1
Kennedy	Ind	-10.5	0.6
Ryan	Lib	-10.5	0.6
Leichhardt	Lib	-10.3	0.8
Dawson	Nat	-10.2	0.9
Dickson	Lib	-9.1	2.0
Bowman	Lib	-8.9	2.2
Hinkler	Nat	-8.8	2.3
Petrie	Lib	-7.9	3.2
Flynn	Nat	-7.8	3.3
Longman	Lib	-6.6	4.5
Herbert	Lib	-6.1	5.0
Blair	Lib	-5.7	5.4
Moreton	Lib	-2.8	8.3
Bonner	Lib	-0.6	10.5
Rankin	ALP	3.0	14.1
Capricornia	ALP	3.8	14.9
Brisbane	ALP	4.0	15.1
Lilley	ALP	5.4	16.5
Oxley	ALP	7.2	18.3
Griffith	ALP	8.5	19.6

WEST AUSTRALIA
Electorate	Incumbent	Current Margin	Forecast Margin
O’Connor	Lib	-20.4	-15.0
Curtin	Lib	-14.7	-9.3
Pearce	Lib	-13.0	-7.6
Tangney	Lib	-11.8	-6.4
Moore	Lib	-10.9	-5.5
Forrest	Lib	-10.5	-5.1
Canning	Lib	-9.6	-4.2
Kalgoorlie	Lib	-6.4	-1.0
Stirling	Lib	-2.1	3.3
Hasluck	Lib	-1.9	3.5
Swan	ALP	0.1	5.5
Cowan	ALP	0.8	6.2
Brand	ALP	4.7	10.1
Perth	ALP	6.8	12.2
Fremantle	ALP	7.8	13.2

SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Electorate	Incumbent	Current Margin	Forecast Margin
Barker	Lib	-19.9	-9.5
Grey	Lib	-13.9	-3.5
Mayo	Lib	-13.6	-3.2
Sturt	Lib	-6.8	3.6
Boothby	Lib	-5.4	5.0
Makin	Lib	-1.0	9.4
Wakefield	Lib	-0.7	9.7
Kingston	Lib	-0.1	10.3
Hindmarsh	ALP	0.1	10.5
Adelaide	ALP	1.4	11.8
Port Adelaide	ALP	13.0	23.4

TASMANIA
Electorate	Incumbent	Current Margin	Forecast Margin
Bass	Lib	-2.7	7.1
Braddon	Lib	-1.2	8.6
Lyons	ALP	3.7	13.5
Franklin	ALP	7.6	17.4
Denison	ALP	13.3	23.1

TERRITORIES
Electorate	Incumbent	Current Margin	Forecast Margin
Solomon	Lib	-2.9	6.9
Lingiari	ALP	7.7	17.5
Canberra	ALP	10.1	19.9
Fraser	ALP	13.4	23.2