Two new
opinion polls out this morning produce contradictory headlines, but the
underlying message is the same: Labor and the Coalition are
neck-and-neck (51-49 in Newspoll, 50-50 in AC Nielsen), but Kim Beazley’s approval ratings are bad (32% in Newspoll, 38% in Nielsen).

More interesting than either set of poll numbers is Michelle Grattan’s accompanying piece in The Age.
After pointing out the various difficulties facing the government
(Telstra, industrial relations, internal dissent, leadership worries),
she wonders why Labor isn’t doing better than it is:

“Beazley seems to be working hard, but his lines have not been coming
through convincingly. It’s almost as if he is acting out his part. He
is saying quite a lot and some of his speeches read well enough. His
subjects — skills, infrastructure, foreign debt — are important. But he
is not grabbing people’s attention.”

The voters, says Grattan, are basically content with the government
even when they have problems on specific issues. “If Beazley can’t dent
this perception now, when will he be able to do so?”

This
will be uncomfortable reading for Labor MPs over their morning
cornflakes, but is it really surprising? Beazley is going through the
motions; he is not a conviction politician, but a routine politician.
The ALP caucus knew that when they reappointed him: after the
roller-coaster ride of the Latham leadership, it was part of his
attraction.

Many commentators at the time (including this one)
said that Beazley was too old to change, and that Labor would get just
what it got out of his previous leadership stint: a safe hand on the
tiller, but an uninspiring one. If things turn seriously pear-shaped
for the government, then that might still be enough to put him in the
Lodge in 2007. But the ALP insiders must be starting to worry.