As expected, Monday’s election in Norway showed a late swing back to the incumbents – but not enough to save the centre-right government of Kjell Magne Bondevik. According to the figures at Psephos, the opposition coalition will have a majority of seven seats, 88-81. Labour leader Jens Stoltenberg will be the new prime minister.

This is an interesting example of how coalition politics work. The outgoing government was led by the Christian Democrats, but it also included the two parties whose names mean “Left” and “Right”, usually referred to in English as “Liberal” and “Conservative.” The new governing coalition will include, in addition to the Labour Party, the smaller Socialist Left, plus the Centre Party, which is a rural-based sectional party not unlike our National Party. The largest opposition party will now be the Progress Party, which had supported the previous government from the cross benches; it’s a libertarian party that also appeals to populist anti-immigrant sentiment.

Proportional representation obliges such heterogeneous groups to work together; if one party breaks off, there is usually another waiting to take its place. Hence the fascinating possibilities of next Sunday’s German election, where left and right now look to be neck and neck. There could be a grand coalition of the two major parties; the smaller Liberal party could switch sides to keep the left in power; and The Guardian’sBerlin correspondent even reports that some Christian Democrats are talking up the possibility of attracting the Greens into a coalition.

The Norwegian result may give some comfort to both sides; it shows Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder that the left can still win elections, and it shows his challenger Angela Merkel that incumbents can be beaten. But it could be that the shape of the next German government will depend on some delicate post-election manoeuvring.