Best Bets: Crikey's election betting guide

When a bookmaker has Labor favourite to win the election but his prices on individual seats show that Labor would not win enough seats to do so, there should be an opportunity to make a little profit.

Hence today’s publication of an Australian federal election form guide giving an assessment of the chances of Labor and Non-Labor winning each individual seat. Where Sportingbet is quoting a price for an individual electorate it is shown as well.

I have assumed that the Owl’s Election Indicator (based on Betfair) is a correct assessment with the ALP a 55.6% chance of winning. That would result in the ALP winning 77 seats to non-Labor’s 73 seats. The opinion polls are currently showing the ALP winning around 94 seats which points to a winning chance of around 90%! The assessment below is thus quite a conservative one.

Seats with the grey shading are the ones where my assessment is that the bookies market is sufficiently wrong (10% or more) to make a bet worthwhile.

Electorate	Held By	Margin	ALP Chance	Non ALP Chance	ALP Price	Non ALP Price
Adelaide	ALP	1.4	0.855	0.145	$1.30	$4.25
Aston	Lib	-13.2	0.016	0.984
Ballarat	ALP	2.3	0.831	0.169	$1.40	$2.85
Banks	ALP	3.3	0.964	0.036
Barker	Lib	-19.9	0.001	0.999
Barton	ALP	7.6	0.996	0.004
Bass	Lib	-2.7	0.564	0.436	$1.85	$1.93
Batman	ALP	21.4	1.000	0.000
Bendigo	ALP	1.0	0.758	0.242	$1.35	$2.90
Bennelong	Lib	-4.0	0.633	0.367	$3.50	$1.25
Berowra	Lib	-13.1	0.069	0.931
Blair	Lib	-5.7	0.413	0.587	$2.55	$1.65
Blaxland	ALP	15.3	1.000	0.000
Bonner	Lib	-0.6	0.788	0.212	$1.50	$2.45
Boothby	Lib	-5.4	0.382	0.618	$4.00	$1.22
Bowman	Lib	-8.9	0.195	0.805	$3.15	$1.30
Braddon	Lib	-1.2	0.677	0.323	$1.50	$2.15
Bradfield	Lib	-17.5	0.009	0.991
Brand	ALP	4.7	0.869	0.131	$1.35	$3.00
Brisbane	ALP	4.0	0.957	0.043
Bruce	ALP	3.5	0.885	0.115
Calare	ALP	7.9	0.997	0.003
Calwell	ALP	8.2	0.984	0.016
Canberra	ALP	10.1	0.997	0.003
Canning	Lib	-9.6	0.041	0.959
Capricornia	ALP	3.8	0.954	0.046
Casey	Lib	-11.4	0.038	0.962
Charlton	ALP	8.4	0.998	0.002
Chifley	ALP	12.1	1.000	0.000
Chisholm	ALP	2.7	0.851	0.149	$1.35	$3.00
Cook	Lib	-13.7	0.055	0.945
Corangamite	Lib	-5.4	0.281	0.719	$3.40	$1.35
Corio	ALP	5.7	0.949	0.051
Cowan	ALP	0.8	0.633	0.367	$1.70	$2.10
Cowper	Nat	-6.6	0.429	0.571
Cunningham	ALP	11.7	1.000	0.000
Curtin	Lib	-14.7	0.003	0.997
Dawson	Nat	-10.2	0.131	0.869
Deakin	Lib	-5.0	0.309	0.691
Denison	ALP	13.3	1.000	0.000
Dickson	Lib	-9.1	0.184	0.816	$3.50	$1.30
Dobell	Lib	-4.8	0.571	0.429	$2.10	$1.70
Dunkley	Lib	-9.4	0.084	0.916
Eden-Monaro	Lib	-3.3	0.684	0.316	$2.00	$1.80
Fadden	Lib	-15.3	0.016	0.984
Fairfax	Lib	-13.3	0.041	0.959
Farrer	Lib	-15.4	0.026	0.974
Fisher	Lib	-13.0	0.046	0.954
Flinders	Lib	-11.2	0.041	0.959
Flynn	Nat	-7.8	0.261	0.739	$2.90	$1.35
Forde	Lib	-13.0	0.046	0.954
Forrest	Lib	-10.5	0.027	0.973
Fowler	ALP	13.5	1.000	0.000
Franklin	ALP	7.6	0.987	0.013
Fraser	ALP	13.4	1.000	0.000
Fremantle	ALP	7.8	0.959	0.041
Gellibrand	ALP	15.0	1.000	0.000
Gilmore	Lib	-9.5	0.224	0.776
Gippsland	Nat	-7.8	0.145	0.855
Goldstein	Lib	-10.1	0.064	0.936
Gorton	ALP	14.9	1.000	0.000
Grayndler	ALP	21.3	1.000	0.000
Greenway	Lib	-11.0	0.145	0.855
Grey	Lib	-13.9	0.023	0.977
Griffith	ALP	8.5	0.996	0.004
Groom	Lib	-19.0	0.002	0.998
Hasluck	Lib	-1.9	0.421	0.579	$1.87	$1.93
Herbert	Lib	-6.1	0.382	0.618	$2.15	$1.65
Higgins	Lib	-8.8	0.104	0.896
Hindmarsh	ALP	0.1	0.788	0.212	$1.40	$2.85
Hinkler	Nat	-8.8	0.200	0.800	$2.45	$1.50
Holt	ALP	1.6	0.794	0.206	$1.42	$2.80
Hotham	ALP	7.5	0.977	0.023
Hughes	Lib	-8.8	0.268	0.732
Hume	Lib	-12.9	0.075	0.925
Hunter	ALP	11.2	1.000	0.000
Indi	Lib	-16.3	0.003	0.997
Isaacs	ALP	1.5	0.788	0.212	$1.50	$2.45
Jagajaga	ALP	4.5	0.919	0.081
Kalgoorlie	Lib	-6.4	0.136	0.864
Kennedy	Ind	-10.5	0.119	0.881
Kingsford Smith	ALP	8.6	0.998	0.002
Kingston	Lib	-0.1	0.776	0.224	$1.60	$2.35
Kooyong	Lib	-9.6	0.078	0.922
La Trobe	Lib	-5.9	0.248	0.752
Lalor	ALP	8.8	0.988	0.012
Leichhardt	Lib	-10.3	0.127	0.873
Lilley	ALP	5.4	0.977	0.023
Lindsay	Lib	-2.9	0.712	0.288	$1.65	$2.30
Lingiari	ALP	7.7	0.987	0.013
Longman	Lib	-6.6	0.345	0.655	$5.00	$1.16
Lowe	ALP	3.1	0.961	0.039	$1.20	$4.00
Lyne	Nat	-14.1	0.046	0.954
Lyons	ALP	3.7	0.925	0.075
Macarthur	Lib	-11.1	0.140	0.860
Mackellar	Lib	-15.5	0.025	0.975
Macquarie	ALP	0.5	0.893	0.107	$1.70	$2.05
Makin	Lib	-1.0	0.719	0.281	$1.70	$2.10
Mallee	Nat	-24.8	0.000	1.000
Maranoa	Nat	-21.0	0.001	0.999
Maribyrnong	ALP	9.5	0.992	0.008
Mayo	Lib	-13.6	0.026	0.974
McEwen	Lib	-6.5	0.212	0.788
McMillan	Lib	-5.0	0.309	0.691
McPherson	Lib	-14.0	0.030	0.970
Melbourne	ALP	21.2	1.000	0.000
Melbourne Ports	ALP	3.7	0.893	0.107
Menzies	Lib	-10.7	0.051	0.949
Mitchell	Lib	-20.7	0.001	0.999
Moncrieff	Lib	-19.9	0.001	0.999
Moore	Lib	-10.9	0.023	0.977
Moreton	Lib	-2.8	0.641	0.359	$1.60	$2.25
Murray	Lib	-24.1	0.000	1.000
New England	Ind	-14.2	0.045	0.955
Newcastle	ALP	8.7	0.998	0.002
North Sydney	Lib	-10.1	0.189	0.811
O’Connor	Lib	-20.4	0.000	1.000
Oxley	ALP	7.2	0.991	0.009
Page	Nat	-5.5	0.516	0.484
Parkes	Nat	-18.8	0.004	0.996
Parramatta	Lib	-1.1	0.821	0.179	$1.60	$2.35
Paterson	Lib	-6.8	0.413	0.587	$2.85	$1.40
Pearce	Lib	-13.0	0.008	0.992
Perth	ALP	6.8	0.938	0.062
Petrie	Lib	-7.9	0.255	0.745	$3.00	$1.35
Port Adelaide	ALP	13.0	1.000	0.000
Prospect	ALP	6.9	0.994	0.006
Rankin	ALP	3.0	0.936	0.064
Reid	ALP	12.0	1.000	0.000
Richmond	ALP	1.5	0.925	0.075	$1.60	$2.35
Riverina	Nat	-20.7	0.001	0.999
Robertson	Lib	-6.9	0.405	0.595
Ryan	Lib	-10.5	0.119	0.881
Scullin	ALP	14.8	1.000	0.000
Shortland	ALP	9.3	0.999	0.001
Solomon	Lib	-2.9	0.548	0.452	$1.95	$1.85
Stirling	Lib	-2.1	0.405	0.595	$2.00	$1.80
Sturt	Lib	-6.8	0.281	0.719
Swan	ALP	0.1	0.579	0.421	$1.75	$2.05
Sydney	ALP	17.3	1.000	0.000
Tangney	Lib	-11.8	0.015	0.985
Throsby	ALP	13.9	1.000	0.000
Wakefield	Lib	-0.7	0.739	0.261	$1.85	$1.95
Wannon	Lib	-12.4	0.024	0.976
Warringah	Lib	-11.3	0.131	0.869
Watson	ALP	14.6	1.000	0.000
Wentworth	Lib	-2.6	0.732	0.268	$3.75	$1.25
Werriwa	ALP	7.1	0.995	0.005
Wide Bay	Nat	-12.2	0.064	0.936
Wills	ALP	17.0	1.000	0.000
TOTAL			77	73

Note: The swing figures are based on the Mackerras pendulum as is the notional allocation of seats by party where there have been boundary changes and, in the case of Calare the independent incumbent has decided not to stand for re-election.