In recent years we’ve come to use the strength of our exports as a proxy for the strength of our economy. Mining exports helped us avoid the global financial crisis, we commonly tell ourselves. The high dollar is why exporters, and by extension New South Wales and Victoria, have had a rough time in the past few years, we continue.
But when it comes to exports, the common narrative hides plenty of subtleties about where our real economic prosperity lies. Here are three myths about exports that are worth closer scrutiny …
The Australian economy is particularly reliant on exports
The first myth goes to the relevance of exports to our gross domestic product. The OECD collates data about exports as a percentage of GDP: from 2004 to 2010, our exports rose from comprising 18.1% of Australia’s GDP to 21.2%. And all this during the so-called “export boom”. Exports were most important to Australia in 2008, when they were worth 22.7% of our GDP.
By global standards, however, Australia is far less reliant on exports than almost all the other nations in the OECD. Canada got a third of its GDP thanks to exports over the period. France normally gets just over a quarter of its economy from exports. Even New Zealand exports more than us. The only OECD countries to whom exports are less important than they are to Australia are the US and Japan.
This doesn’t suggest exports aren’t worthy of our focus. Most nations are onto a good thing — export growth is highly correlated with economic growth. But at the moment, perhaps due to the tyranny of distance, our exports aren’t the be-all and end-all of Australia’s economic prosperity.
It’s all about China
Ask most people what got us through the global financial crisis, and they’ll answer in one world: China. But the Middle Kingdom, while our single largest export destination, accounts for just under a quarter of all our exports in total; exports to Japan and Korea taken together are roughly equal to our exports to China.
Our export partners are remarkably diverse, meaning there’s opportunities everywhere for Australian businesses keen to branch out. Our top five export destinations together make up just half of our exports in total, according to government figures.
The high dollar is killing our manufacturing exporters
This myth is only half-false. But it certainly obscures far more than it illuminates. The DHL Export Barometer has been published since 2003, and is a measure of exporter confidence — it shows it’s not manufacturers who say they’ve lost the most from the high dollar, but agricultural exporters and tourism operators.
This makes sense, University of NSW economist Tim Harcourt said recently. Unlike miners, farmers and tour operators haven’t had high commodity prices buoying their profits, and unlike manufactures, haven’t enjoyed cheaper component imports.
The importation of components in manufacturing, lowering production costs, is the little-known story behind the high dollar. According to the DHL Export Barometer, 74% of exporters import some of their components, up from 35% two years ago.
For our manufacturers, the high dollar hasn’t just lowered sales. It’s also helped them save money as well. The net effect of the high dollar has been more complicated than you might guess. The effects of its recent fall are likely to be complex too.
*This article was originally published at SmartCompany
Nice work Myriam.
You’ve put the export /import markets into focus for me
Thanks
What an incredibly vacuous article. Of course it’s not just about manufacturers. Many of us have been trying to get that message out for months. The agricultural sector has been very badly hit by the high dollar. With many normally high value crops left to rot on the ground. Is there actually a grown up left at Crikey in an editorial management roll left to weed out this type of shallow article that mostly only demonstrates that the writer really has no idea about the rest of the economy beyond Geelong and the widget makers.
role
Simon Mansfield, It was quite clear to me from the article that agriculture has been substantially disadvantaged by the high dollar. So what’s your beef? All the article was doing was pointing out that manufacturing has not been impacted by the high dollar as much as other sectors,
Simon Mansfield:
you say ” Many of us have been trying to get that message out for months”.
Well quite clearly you efforts have failed…as does your schoolboy invective.
I suggest you read the article more closely..you might even learn something