Life on the lam is overrated, especially if you’re holed up at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport. Russia is becoming increasingly impatient about US whistleblower Edward Snowden’s failure to take up political asylum somewhere, and the Russian authorities’ initial sense of schadenfreude towards the US resulting from Snowden’s disclosures of the US’s extensive spying program — against its enemies, its strategic competitors, and even its friends — is wearing thin.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered Snowden political asylum on condition that he releases no further information about the US spying program. Snowden responded by withdrawing his application for asylum in Russia. Although Russian authorities are currently offering him protection from being returned to the US, their message is clear: Russia does not intend to run the risk of Snowden’s continued presence causing lasting damage to its ties with Washington. So what are Snowden’s legal options — if he ever wants to leave the transit terminal?

While awaiting acceptance of a request for refuge, a person is commonly referred to as an asylum seeker. After acceptance, the person is a refugee. Late last week, Snowden was offered political asylum in Venezuela and Bolivia. Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega said his country would offer Snowden asylum “if circumstances permit”. But Snowden’s options are rapidly narrowing. His decision to accept an offer of asylum will inevitably be informed by the level of protection his consequent status as a refugee would provide. Bolivia, Nicaragua and 140 other countries are parties to the 1951 UN Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 protocol. Venezuela and the US are parties to the 1967 protocol only.

A government’s decision to grant or refuse asylum is ultimately a political one. Although the decision is based on the legal considerations outlined in the convention, the content of the decision is ultimately informed by domestic law and domestic political considerations. In terms of the convention, Snowden must demonstrate that he is unable or unwilling to return to his country of nationality owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted on grounds of his political opinion.

“In the end, however, simple travel logistics may be Snowden’s undoing.”

Quantitative and qualitative assessments are made of the potential severity of harm arising from persecution and the importance of the right to express political opinions. Proportionality between the nature of the right and the nature of the persecution feared plays a central role.

The notion of “persecution” is central to the concept of refugee status. This is a big call for any country to make, particularly when it concerns a country like the US, with its respected democratic traditions and institutions and its considerable strategic and economic leverage. But then, Snowden’s case focuses on that area where the US administration’s decision-making, legal checks and balances, use of coercive powers, and the use of its technological abilities are most opaque — national security.

Also, the US has in the past regularly provided asylum and granted refugee status to nationals of countries that have now offered Snowden asylum, including Russia.

Article 28 of the 1951 UN Refugee Convention may assist Snowden in obtaining travel papers for his journey to take up asylum. The article enables the country offering Snowden asylum to issue him with travel papers unless it is against the issuing country’s national security or public interest.

If Snowden accepts an offer of asylum, travelling to his new home without being intercepted en route by countries acting for the US may be his greatest challenge. Snowden is well aware of the capabilities of the US security services to track his movements. Last week, suspecting that Snowden might be on board Bolivian President Evo Morales’ jet, France, Portugal, Italy and Spain, apparently acting under US pressure, refused permission for the jet to fly through their airspace. Morales was en route to La Paz from Moscow when his jet was grounded in Austria for 13 hours, much to his annoyance.

The perceived justness of Snowden’s cause for leaking classified information, coupled with the US’s uncompromising approach to those who have offended national security laws, may provide justification for countries to offer asylum to Snowden. In terms of the Refugee Convention, countries can later revoke refugee status if the basis on which refugee status was granted has changed. Whether countries choose to maintain his refugee status in future depends on the shifting nature of leverage between countries and greater political factors outside Snowden’s control. In the end, however, simple travel logistics may be Snowden’s undoing.

When the Snowden disclosures were first made, George Orwell’s 1984 made it back onto The New York Times bestseller list. Don’t be surprised if Joseph Heller’s Catch 22 follows shortly. Maybe Snowden should have stayed in Hong Kong.