“If you have angioedema, do not take Entresto. The most serious side effect of Entresto is angioedema …”
— ad for Entresto, heart failure medication
The final results in the New York primary, and a few numbers ahead: Donald Trump won New York, with 60.4% of the votes, and 89-91 delegates. The one county place he didn’t win was where he lived: Manhattan, or New York county, where he was beat by John Kasich, haha. That result and a couple of other county results gave Kasich four delegates, with a couple of others to go. Ted Cruz got no delegates, but never expected to. He hoped at least to whittle down Trump’s lead in some districts in order to get a stray vote, or give a few to Kasich.
Had he bitten the bullet and run dead in NY, advocated a vote for Kasich, that might have pushed Kasich’s vote in a few counties, and damaged the Donald, got him down to the low 80s in delegates. But the Death Race 2000 character of this election militates against that. And yet it might be those 10 delegates that are vital at the convention. For the moment, Trump is sitting pretty, as has has bragging rights on a majority win. There’s now no mathematical possibility — there was never a real possibility — that Cruz can get the nomination.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton won 58% to 42%, grabbing 176 delegates to Bernie Sanders’ 106. Sanders was never likely to win, chiefly because it’s a closed primary; Bernie bros and hos would have had to register before his campaign had even started, last year, in order to vote for him. The result could have been better; if Bernie had managed to get above 45%, that would have been, image-wise, a loss for Hillary. But it was a bit of a beat-up, because Sanders would always fall short.
A glance at the map shows it clearly: Sanders won about 80% of the counties in NY states — all of them upstate and west-state, and omitting the crucial city counties of Buffalo, Rochester and other dumps. Clinton won all of New York City and commuter counties, and most of the other cities as well. But most of the upstate rural Democrats are lawyers-turned-ice cream makers, and apprentice luthiers with a stalled cultural studies PhD; those areas vote Republican.
Sanders’ real chance for a rally lies with the “Acela corridor” primaries next week. Acela is the express train service which runs between Boston, Philadelphia and Washington DC, via NYC, and priced to be prohibitive, save for anyone en route to a business meeting. Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware and Pennsylvania are up, and it’s the last of these that may be a rallying point for Bernie.
You can register up to 30 days before the primary in Pennsylvania, and if the Sanders machine has been getting out the rego they may do better. Furthermore, Pennsylvania is a perpetual next-marginal state — the one Republicans always think they can bring into play if they can find the right formula, or the Democrats screw up. With two big cities at either side of the state, it has a rust-belt in the middle, and the tip of the bible belt in its south, where the Appalachians begin. If Sanders were to win that, he would get bragging rights about which candidate could shore up the boundaries of their vote. The Democrats are only winning if Pennsylvania isn’t even slightly in play.
For the Republicans, the long, bitter struggle to deny Trump the 1237 pre-convention maximum now has three clear battles remaining: the Acela primary next week with about 175 winner-take-all delegates, and another 50 or so proportional delegates; the Indiana primary on May 3 which has 57 winner-take-all delegates; and the June 7 big kahuna, California and New Jersey and some others, with 300 delegates on offer, 270 winner-take-all.
Trump currently has 845, so Indiana begins the next surprise yuuuuuge primary. If Cruz can win that very religious hybrid state — industrial/agricultural/suburban — then it will come down to who wins this or that district in California, and the mood in South Dakota.
Onwards, and onwards, and onwards … the side effect is the disease …
“Sanders was never likely to win, chiefly because it’s a closed primary; Bernie bros and hos would have had to register before his campaign had even started, last year, in order to vote for him.” There is the small technicality that Bernie wasn’t even a Democrat when he announced, less than a year ago. He was still claiming that he was an independent. I guess he is now a Democrat. Bit late for him to start squealing about the voting system.
The result could have been better for Bernie, but it wasn’t.
He’s now rapidly cooling toast. While he might well win a few more primaries, the next major step will be to see what sort of deal/position Hillary will offer him.
Hopefully healing the Bern and uniting the Dems against Sauron.
I doubt that any Bernier would use the niggra gangbanger term “bros & hos”, even for the cadence.
Paddy – Sauron might not be all that congenial but Klinton doesn’t exactly suggest rainbows & magic ponies – she won’t even let us know what she tells banksters, & worse, for $200K+ per pop.
We do know, however, her attitude to eternal war & the security state, good for biz & donors.
Right on. People seem to be under the delusion that Clinton will somehow have a more benign influence outside of US borders than Trump. We have a record of foreign war, violence, and military coups from Hillary. Drumpf is unknown but on occasion he has made statements that he thinks the trillions spent killing people overseas could be better spent at home.
killing people at home??
Really AR?
You seriously don’t see the yawning chasm that separates Hillary from Sauron?
The best we can hope for with geo politics is avoiding catastrophe.
I know who looks better to me.
There’s only one thing I agree with AR on and that’s the use of the terms bros and hos, totally offensive Crikey. Apart from that I do wish Guy would give us just a bit of actual content. What about an analysis of some policies, perhaps starting with taxation policy since that’s crucial to achieving the promises candidates have made? Or foreign policy particularly as it affects Australia.? And, BTW, last year’s Democrat deadline was for people who wanted to change parties, new voters had until a month ago to register. Pretty generous actually.