While acknowledging that political rhetoric is not the most accurate of mediums for factual analysis, Crikey was struck by this statement from the Prime Minister at yesterday’s “campaign rally”, when he was urging voters not to vote for independents or minor parties.
“Vote for any of them and you could end up with Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in a government where unions, Greens and independents pull the strings. This will mean less investment, less employment and an economy going into reverse. It would mean higher deficits and more debt.”
So we thought we’d fact-check that. What happened when, in Turnbull’s words, “unions, Greens and independents pulled the strings” between 2010 and 2013?
According to the ABS, the highest ever level of private investment in Australian history was in the December 2012 quarter, when investors pumped $43.8 billion into the economy. In the March 2016 quarter, private investment was just $27.9 billion. Since December 2013, it has averaged $36.5 billion. The mining investment boom, of course, explains those figures — but peculiarly neither a minority government, nor the mining tax, nor a 30% company tax rate, discouraged investors.
Unemployment has averaged 6% in trend terms since the Coalition was elected in 2013. It averaged 5.3% during the life of the minority government.
And during that period of minority government overall government expenditure fell to 24.1% of GDP in 2012-13 and net debt, at the end of 2013, of 10% of GDP. Expenditure is now 25.8% of GDP and net debt will be 18.9% of GDP in 2016-17. Economic growth averaged 0.7% per quarter in trend terms from 2010-13. Under the Coalition, economic growth has averaged … 0.7%.
Economists might be mistaken for hankering for the days of minority government.
It’s not chaos, it’s democracy. A “hung” parliament simply means one that must find compromise, rather than exercise dictatorship.
And if there’s one thing the authoritarian born-to-rule types – overrepresented in the Libs, to be sure, but a substantial majority in the ALP as well – hate, it’s anything that vaguely looks, smells, or feels, like democracy. Hence the incessant scaremongering about “hung parliaments” and “independents”.
Don’t allow facts to get in the way of the Great Coalition Myth ie: that they are superior at running the Oz economy.
It’s a pity Shorten can’t convert the above figures into a three word slogan.
I’m with others, the best outcome for Australia is very likely to be a hung parliament. Negotiated outcomes will mean that ideological rubbish will have to be jettisoned, and they will have to talk to each other to get the deals they want.
Govt by proxy, in other words by Cabinet, in other words by 2 or 3 of the senior cabinet members, has driven the worst policy outcomes for Australia, some of which are central to this election campaign.
We all know that Prime Minister Turnbull ‘facilitated’ ABC shut down of their Fact Checking show. So thank you Crikey for highlighting some of the truths that other Media is too often blind and deaf to.
Is it any wonder that through out the developed world electorates are challenging political elites and their media fellow travellers disconnection from open, transparent and accountable governance? Bring on minority government in the Gillard mode and record of skilled negotiation, compromise and accelerated legislative reform.
I have nothing to add to the comments below and have extolled the virtues of minority government since…err we had minority government.
The terror of Talcum is a joy to behold.
Who reckons he’s not checking out Cayman Island real estate?