What does Tom Switzer know? The columnist and academic is known to be cosy with former PM Tony Abbott, so you might want to read his Fairfax column today through that prism.
“The scene is now set for a merciless and bloodthirsty civil war,” predicted Switzer. “It will be very hard for Turnbull to survive the carnage.” And Abbott, says Switzer, is “the only plausible candidate to the fill the void on the centre-right” and he’s “the man the ALP most fears” (a claim that will have Labor stifling giggles).
Let’s check it for fingerprints:
Who benefits? Abbott, especially given the tone of much recent commentary is that he has destroyed whatever remaining support he had within the parliamentary party — or had even given up on ever being PM again.
Who loses? Malcolm Turnbull, obviously — even if an Abbott comeback is fanciful, he hardly needs talk of a “bloodthirsty civil war”. And Peter Dutton, the man who has most benefited from Abbott’s kamikaze-like attacks on the government and who is know openly discussed as the next prime minister.
Connections: Switzer has known Abbott for two decades and is a standard-bearer for the NSW Right — he unsuccessfully sought preselection to replace Brendan Nelson in Bradfield in 2009 but was defeated by Paul Fletcher, backed by the moderate faction. Abbott had backed Switzer.
Conclusion: We speculate Switzer is speaking for the NSW Right, not Abbott, and signalling that there is still support for Abbott’s return in the party’s conservative ranks in NSW — and a reluctance to accept the Queenslander Dutton as an alternative. Never overlook the power of geographical snobbery in the Liberals, particularly given Dutton, strictly speaking, isn’t even a Liberal Party MP.
Whether it’s Trumble or Abbott in the chair makes little difference – the former promotes mostly old Abbott policy out of fear and the latter won’t be able to negotiate anything through the Senate (compromise & charm not being his premium skills).
And, contrary to what Switzer writes, the ALP must be salivating for the return of Abbott as it means winning government a few months sooner.
Abbott is still yet to prove….his compliance with S44 of our Australian Constitution… as to whether he had revoked his UK Citizenship…PRIOR…to him being elected into the seat of Warringah in 1994.
Julia Gillard was asked to prove her compliance, and she did.
Other politicians who have been challenged in the High Court, and who were found not to have complied with S44, have been unseated and, have had to repay their remuneration.
“Mr Abbott, please prove your compliance…”
None of us are above the Australian Constitution.
Probably the one thing currently going for Turnbull is that he is not Abbott. Even better he is not Dutton.
Abbot. The man the ALP most fears?
Oh please, bring it on… Labor will be Trumbling in their boots!
Turnbull, in what used to be the public perception of who he was, could have been a problem for Labor going into the next election. If he doesn’t change, its a shoe-in for the ALP.
Sorry to be out of the loop – but why is Dutton not, strictly speaking, a Liberal Party MP?
He’s a member of the Liberal National Party in Queensland – affiliated with but not the same as the Liberals (and the Nats of course) nationally since the amalgamation of the two parties in the Sunshine State.