Good morning, Australia. Meet Winston Peters, the man currently deciding who will be New Zealand’s next prime minister. When I was asked to write this piece, I warned Crikey‘s associate editor that, by Monday, it might still all be a big hot mess — and behold!
Quick recap: On Saturday, the incumbent centre-right National party received the most votes, but not enough to govern alone. The Labour party — which was toast eight weeks ago, but enjoying a surge with new leader Jacinda Adern — went up 10%, but it still wasn’t enough for victory, even with the support of the Greens. This leaves Peters’ NZ First Party — which polled around 7% — as the only potential coalition partner for either side. Basically, Winston has the keys to the car of stable government (or is that the whole bowl at the key party?).
So, morning has broken over the Land of the Long White Cloud and a 72-year-old man, who lost his own electoral seat on Saturday by approximately 1300 votes, is once again deciding who gets to sit at the big table.
Once again you say? Oh yes. When NZ adopted the mixed-member proportional representation (MMP) electoral system in 1996, Peters — king- and queen-maker in that election, too — led such protracted negotiations over nearly two months that we all thought MMP was the worst thing we had done since letting Australia nick John Clarke.
Yes, I have noticed you, Australia, giving NZ’s MMP electoral system a bit of flirty side eye, thinking how nice it could be to open up to other, newer and more exciting, parties and feeling a bit bored by your system, but you can now witness the very complicated morning-after of a MMP election as it unfolds next door. It’s a bit like having a hangover for three weeks after a party that lasted for two months.
[Four fun facts about Jacinda Ardern, the ex-Mormon who might become NZ’s PM]
New Zealanders can now expect to sit and wait for possibly two weeks to know who their government will be while negotiations get started and the special votes (all 380,000 of them — which normally skew left) are counted. I say possibly, because with Peters, anything is possible. In a move worthy of a Sopranos episode, Peters, during this interview 10 days before the election, sent a staffer to retrieve a decades-old document from the boot of his car to prove to interviewer Guyon Espiner that he had not been fired three times — only two.
Peters has formed governments with both the left and the right before, and if there is any common thread, it is that he does what he wants to, and will take his own sweet time. Winston whisperers are desperately trying to analyse what his past deals might mean for New Zealand over the next few weeks. Both of his previous coalitions extended the lifespan of an existing government, but not for long.
I personally cannot remember a time in which Peters was not part of the NZ political narrative. He has lost and re-won seats in different parts of the country over his vast political career. He says he prefers fishing to politics, and I say that’s only a partial truth; he prefers the hunt over anything else, and elections are hunting season.
And if you think I’m exaggerating about how much front this man has, here’s my favourite Winston anecdote. Some years ago, when returning to parliament after having been in the civilian wilderness for three long years, he started his maiden speech with “As I was saying, before I was interrupted …”
Most Aussie commentators seem to think that NZ’s MMP system is complicated, but that is nonsense. It has the great virtue of requiring only two ticks on a ballot paper (cf the Senate choice in most states) and the awful stupidity of preferential voting. NZ adopted the German system and look how well they have done. he other great virtue is that the number of seats held in Parliament reflects popular support in the country. That’s called democracy. Compare that with National here getting about 4% of the vote, but 20 times the number of seats in the House than the Greens who poll three times as much as the Nationals. And let’s not start on the Senate here, where a candidate like Roberts gets about 80 primary votes and winds up a Senator. Absurd doesn’t begin to cover it.
Before anointing Peters as the kingmaker, it may pay to wait for the specials to come in. They are likely to favour Labour and the Greens which could tilt the balance yet again. New Zealand is frankly sick of Peters’ grandstanding (which is a reason he lost his won seat) and will punish NZ First next time around. Look at yesterday’s Germany result to see what happens to self-serving coalitions.
Ease up on the Aussie system bashing mate, your post is emotional and very partisan, take a step back and look at the big picture. You do realise that voting above the line which is what most people do, 95% or so, is a vote for a party, which albeit sadly had Roberts as a candidate, you would be wrong in suggesting that the this was undemocratic and definitely not absurd. The nationals get 20 seats because they are strongly aligned with farming communities who vote in their electorates for their benefit, if you are suggesting we apportion seats based on who voted for what in the last election which is the only way to redress this ‘imbalance’ you point. Then it is you who is absurd. The government in Australia is extremely representative of the country, you may disagree with the mix but don’t claim it is undemocratic and that some how NZ is more so. Greens should move to the country, i’m suprized the people who love the environment so much choose to live in the most urban areas.
NatR – agree re electoral system and esp your point about urbanoid Greens. Cog-dis much?
It wouldn’t take much to radically tilt rural people towards green ideas, not least because of the way they’ve been so ill served by the gNat party leadership but it ain’t gonna happen from the latte fortresses.
My favourite comment about Winston Peters came from David Lange (of course). Peters was late for a meeting and Lange explained to those present that “Winston is running late – he was waylaid by a full-length mirror”.
On Insiders on Sunday Dennis Atkins described Peters as likely to take his time while at the same time saying: “don’t ask me, stop asking me, but, please, don’t turn off the cameras”.
Your primary description of Winston Peters is as a “fishing enthusiast”? Makes me think of the time an artist ran Germany.
Have to agree with James, the MMP is a fairer system and no more complicated than our senate voting, and actually not that hard to follow.
Winston Peters is a great advertisement for why 70+ year olds should not be allowed to nominate for election.
There is an argument for MMP but only for small, unicameral systems with voluntary voting.
If we want to fiddle with our current system, favourite would be an electorate with the brains of a goldfish with ADHD.
Failing that, try a dart board.